Closely-matched distaffers gamble in Original Margarita Invitational(G2)
Dubai– We’re on the road to Breeders Bowl Distaff IX here at Dubai. The Sand Castle Festival is only a few weeks away, but fillies and mares 4 years old and upwards get their due this week. A closely-matched field of nine test nine furlongs over the main track in the Grade 2 $250,000 Original Margarita Invitational.
Waremblem1’s Bush Wins Again checks in as our tepid 7/2 favorite. The 5yo daughter of Tiznow hasn’t won in a spell. Her last victory came in the Rio Secco Handicap(G1) in August ’06. Bush Wins Again recorded a fabulous 110 SP# in a tremndous coming-out party for the nine furlongs. She appeared to be on track for last year’s BB, but a poor showing in the Three Smokestacks(G1) (a traditional BB prep race) spoiled her plans. Instead, waremblem1 sent his filly out to a beautiful victory in the GR Simsters Championships. She finished off her year with a fine runner-up effort in the Horatio Luro(G1) at Eastern Kentucky.
Bush Wins Again is a true blue stalker who positively adores Saturday’s distance. She went a sixteenth less in her ’07 debut, finishing 3rd in Norway’s Sabian(G3). It was a nice confidence booster and she should be sharp as a tack with top jockey H Harzheim aboard. Really the class of the field.
Lenny1’s Forest Emblem (4/1) recently elevated her game to the graded level. The 5yo Forestry mare finished a gorgeous 2nd in the Forewarned(G3) over a mile. The mare’s pretty much a miler specialist. She won a lot towards the end of last season, scoring at the stakes level and picking up ALW victories in fine time. Forest Emblem’s sweeping closing style sometimes works to her disadvantage. She can’t fall too far back like she did last month at Portugal. The mare finished out of the moeny over a miler Grade 3 event. We’ll see how she handles the extra furlong. Solid runner through and through though and heart may be what matters in this close contest.
And lots of heart in any Skip Away-sired runner like russ’ Skip Dancer (4/1). The 6yo mare earned some minor cheques last season in the grades before elevating her speed figures when cutting back to a mile. Skip Dancer won a Missouri mile with a 107 SP#. the midpacker earned two straight 3rd-places since over the same distance. Is she indeed better going shorter? Worth a shot to see if her form will carry her the extra yardage. Top jockey SL Ledwith knows how to get it done. Definite factor for a minor share at least, but you’d think a miler grade would’ve been in order after her pick ups at that distance.
Razorback Distaff(G2) winner Big Ugly (5/1) breaks from post 6. Jrougue’s Summer Squall mare galloped ferociously from way off pace to nail the Razorback’s 8.5f with a 105 SP#. With only 21 starts in the bank, Big Ugly brings a lot of upside form. The 5yo mare seems to be coming into her own in these short routes. Needs to pass the nine furlong test though. Additionally, these is some honest speed in this group, so that might work well for Big Ugly’s closing kick. A very dangerous hot horse.
Handicappers might be too quick to dismiss corzak’s wonderful Corzaffair(IRE) (7/1). The grand 5yo dame and earner of $1.9 million finished 2nd to Bush Wins Again in the Rio Secco(G2) after setting the pace. Corzaffair raced forgettably on Breeders Bowl day though and lost her next two dirt outings in similar fashion. But look closer — both of those races were over 10f and 10.5f and one of which was over an off track. The Black Tie Affair(IRE) daughter did snadwich in a stakes victory over the turf though. Corzaffair is just not done yet, even at 37 starts. I wouldn’t be surprised to see her bounce back in this furlong-less contest. She must overcome Wango Tango’s challenge for the lead though, but Corzaffair brings penty of class to the table. Possible spoiler.
And Wango Tango (7/1) has the inside speed edge over Corzaffair(IRE). SDMF’s Wango Tango doesn’t bring over-the-top speed figures to the table, but she does present considerable consistency. The 4yo daughter of Pine Bluff stretches out after winning an ALW over a mile LTO. She’s pretty much kept to the sprint ranks for most of her 17-start career. The filly earned several minor cheques at the graded sprint level last season. Wango Tango is only 2-for-6 lifetime in routes though and must prove that she belongs. Savvy trainer finds talent under any and all rocks. The 9f might be too much to ask of this filly at this point. Should mix it up early on, but afterwards, anyone’s guess.
A pair of interesting 8/1 longshots both have spoiler credentials. Kjracing’s A Fire Inside (8/1) romped over 9.5f LTO. It was a listed level score and proved that her runnerup performance in last year’s Annie Oakley(G3) was no fluke. The 4yo daughter of AP Indy had won 2 of 3 ALWs over a mile, exhausting her conditions prior to the Annie Oakley test. She just missed in the Annie Oakley’s 9f. A Fire Inside’s trainer then sent her ambitiously to the KY Horsemen Oaks(G1) over 10f. The filly rallied again, but flattened out when asked to run the extra furlong. Now she’s back at her prefferred distance. Excellent race-spotting here by her trainer. I like this filly a lot in this spot — she’s more of a midpacker too. My pick to spoil the field if not to grab a board placing.
Shangrila2 stable brings the other 8/1 longshot, Waki Cause. This 5yo Miswaki daughter won against ALW competition last month. the stalker mare scored a 103 SP# in a romp. She won her share of cheques last season mostly over 9.5f-10f. Her best recent performance was a runner-up finish in the King Classic(G2) over 9.5f. Gotta love a horse who steps up in speed figures when cutting back a smidgeon in distance. Worth a shot at this level. Has to prove she can run with the big gals though. Stalker might factor into the minor money positions if not a trifecta placing.
Finally, Extreme Caution(SAF) (18/1) breaks from the rail. The 123stud trainee specializes around one-turn. The Horse Chestnut daughter is predominantly an ALW runner. She won over 7.5f two back but is pretty much in over her head Saturday. Should press the pace between Wango Tango and Corzaffair. She’s not that bad at her odds, but this is kind of a prayer. Very little chance if at all.
Snowchief’s Picks
Corzaffair, Wango Tango and Extreme Caution should all duke it out on the lead. Bush Wins Again, Waki Cause, Skip Dancer make up the stalkers. A Fire Inside should be behind those. Forest Emblem and Big Ugly trail in the back of the pack.
I think there’s an honest speed duel here, but not much. Can very well see Bush Wins Again handling this field with ease. She should do so in a perfect scenario with mild pace up front.
Forest Emblem and Skip Dancer might prefer miles. Ditto for Wango Tango. Extreme Caution is outclassed. Corzaffair must recover old form but enjoys this distance. I think that leaves closer Big Ugly, stalker Bush Wins Again, and midpacker A Fire Inside. I’ll go with the latter on top, but box those three in any order.
Win: A Fire Inside
Place: Big Ugly
Show: Bush Wins Again
Good luck to all.