Wally Emblem Special Stakes
Oh baby, this is going to be a shootout, so hold on to your hats folks as these five cracking 3yo colts go toe to toe in the Wally Emblem Special Stakes. A firm turf track is the order of the day here in Maryland as they race at break neck speeds for a purse of $60,000 over 6.5f.
The race was run twice in 2004 at 7f, once in 2005 in Maryland for the first time at 6.5f and two times last year with the second running at Maryland again at 6.5f. The winner of the 2006 version Fall Down has not developed and has only managed an allowance win since, whilst the 2005 winner Salfly’s Light who was G3 placed and four times stakes placed prior to the race has not won since and in fact has only hit the board twice in twenty-four runs. So, on that note, who will take the chocolates this year? Lets take a look at how they will line up.
PP #1 – ALL SQUARE(KY) – STEPHEN GOT EVEN X ALYDAR X HAIL TO REASON (mucha) 8/5
8/4-2-1 for $149,680 – Turf Sprint: 310
After a win, two seconds and a third in stakes and a sixth in his first run for the year in a G3 (only beaten three lengths), mucha tested him on turf and watched on as he nailed an allowance field by four lengths. This will be very interesting as All Square has proved he can mix it on dirt with a dirt sprint rank of 58 but must now prove he is a turf stakes runner. He has no particular racing style but when he jumps from the inside slot, I foresee him taking a sit off Light In The Dark. T Waters and his poor 3.7% strike rate will be aboard and this could prove his undoing in the stretch when the pressure comes. Ran on a slightly softer track last time out and if he takes to it firmer he may run 90+ and be a real show.
PP #2 – ERRATIC(NY) – FREUD X JEBLAR X DANZIG (mwpixie) 9/2
10/2-1-5 for $102,100 – Turf Sprint: 57
Missed hitting the board at his only two runs over 7.5f to run ITM 80% of the time. Posted career high SP of 88 last time out when 3rd in Machine Bird Stakes at 6.5f running a second quicker than his last effort at the distance. A deep closer that tends to get too far back and therefore fails to pick off leaders even with his explosive turn of foot. Worth noting that he has raced in small fields in his last five races and jockey N Prescott only has a 4.5% winning ratio. A great chance to take this race out if he is able to continue to develop from last run and should defiantly hit the board here.
PP #3 – LIGHT IN THE DARK(KY) – FORESTRY X DAYJUR X MAJESTIC LIGHT (ba) 2/1
8/5-1-2 for 139,543 – Turf Sprint: 35
This speedy little son of Forestry looks the winner to me and is attempting to make it five consecutive wins after taking the chocolates in an allowance then going on to blitz stakes fields at the end of last year and on two occasions this year. Trainer ba has done well not to accept the temptation of Graded glory after going wire to wire last time out in the Magic Auror Challenge Stakes in which he drew away from the field to win with a leg in the air in what was an impressive performance on yielding turf. I expect him to again make the pace out in front this week and as well as having 21.4% winning jockey V Elliot aboard, he will have the extra weight of my $2,500 on him to win. Five wins from six runs is a great record and I predict he will post a SP over 90 running on top of the ground this week.
PP #4 – GRUMPY GRANDPY(KY) – GULCH X CHIEF SEATTLE X WILD AGAIN (andycapper) 5/1
6/2-0-0 for $41,180 – Turf Classic: 549
Trainer andycapper has worked a stroke of genius after what looked like Grumpy Grandpy would be one of those frustrating juveniles who grows wings and flies in their debut run and then has their wings clipped, never to run a race worth noting again in their career. After three abysmal runs that would force me to dump the colt in the auction, andycapper rested him for six weeks and brought him back on turf as a 3yo to win, posting a 88. Last time out he posted an 87 on this track at 8f and was well beaten however the step down in distance should suit. He has raced from around mid-field in his last two runs and R Clink will again partner him as they attempt to improve on the jockeys 8.5% strike rate. A rough chance to run ITM this week.
PP #5 – SALTYSTICKYSWEET(IRE) – FAIR MIX (IRE) X SALT LAKE X NORTHERN DANCER (phenomenon) 7/2
11/4-3-1 for $124,305 – Turf Classic: 37
Trainer phenomenon made a great claim in 3094 when Saltystickysweet was dumped in a dirt claimer after he had won two and placed twice in stakes races on turf. Ran an 88 in his debut race for the phenomenon stable to place 2nd in the Hasty Door Handicap Stakes at 7f then failed when 5th last time out in the Craft Bank Memorial Stakes over 6.5f in 3133. Hitting the board in eight of eleven career starts, Saltystickysweet is evenly matched with some of these colts this week and could run ITM if he is able to reproduce the good run two starts back. Has run in the last half of the field recently and will sit in 4th position for most of the race this week, looming up in the stretch to battle for a placing. Big advantage with 26% winning jockey C Gerhke aboard and this may be the difference in the stretch.
Predictions:
Light In The Dark to lead the field from the barriers stalked by All Square. Grumpy Grandpy will follow with Saltystickysweet and Erratic to fall to the rear.
In the run, Light In The Dark to stride out and test out the field as All Square grinds away with him. Grumpy Grandpy will attempt to run with them when they pour the speed on at the 4f mark as Saltystickysweet will be under pressure with All Square rattling through the field closing late.
On the line, Light In The Dark will stride clear to win with All Square making ground for 2nd and Saltystickysweet under the skillful guidance of C Gerhke will hold out Erratic and Grumpy Grandpy for 3rd.
All looks set for a great race.
Good fortune to all and may your noble steed be swift!!!