Grade II Carden Special
Grade II Carden Special
One Mile and One half on the Fast Dirt
All horses 4yo+
A full field of 14 will contest this week’s Carden Special Grade II in
The field looks a little something like this:
Lemeux Again: Storm Cat X Forty Niner x Sir Ivor mrfu
Opening up at 8/1 is this blue blood who has run over a range of distances of late, running well at all but the two miles.
Had a great year as a 6 year old but only managed 2 stakes wins and a couple of graded places with no luck.
Ran 2nd in this race last year with similar form to the present and will challenge again if he runs back to his best.
Runthebases: Grand Slam x Danehill x Cherokee
This lightly raced 4 year old is new to the graded scene, failing in his only effort at this level on Dell Penn Champions Day in a race won by Kowboy.
Will need to wipe that run from memory to have any chance here against a classy field but certainly has prospects for the future with such a light racing schedule.
Deputy Sec of War: Deputy Minister x Secretariat x Alydar simsters4
Picked up in a $2500 MCl as a 3 year old, despite a lack of success at stakes level this horse has proved a good investment, hitting the board more often than not.
The only spoiling feature of this horse’s record is the lack of wins despite many good SP’s.
Hard to leave him out of the equation but his record is against him.
Tete Clairvoyant (IRE): Peintre Celebre (Ire) x Cozzene x Blushing Groom jacobsson
I must admit that I was a little scared when I saw four “Tete” horses lined up for the race. No matter what the reason, when a quarter of the field is of a similar name it is disconcerting to say the least (just as well two missed out!).
This scratch bred colt has been trotting around in allowances for most of his career with a one from one record at stakes level.
Although that race was a two miler restricted to 3 year olds, the record stands as he takes the leap from allowance to graded level for the first time.
He hasn’t performed spectacularly at allowance level recently but probably deserves a step up in class.
Whether he can do what few horses in the sim have been able to do and take the step up straight away is yet to be seen.
This race could shape his future whichever way it goes.
This horse out of a fairly poor performing Sadler’s Wells mare has had a very patchy career to date.
He has never really been able to string a god campaign together with wins coming intermittently over his career so far.
His last 2 races have been promising sparking a step up in class but the past is against him as far as stringing good races together goes.
If he runs well he’s a chance but his form is unpredictable.
Buzzbringsthebeers: Vindication x Storm Cat x Nodouble gr8bigsea
The second favourite of the field opening at 5/1 is this Vindication progeny.
Coming off a very promising year last year including 7 wins and 12 ITM from 13 starts.
Won a stakes race late last year with an awesome 111 SP but his two graded efforts since then haven’t been quite as impressive.
If he is good enough to reproduce his run from 3 starts back he should win here but in this company he will have to run a big one all the same.
As Wells Mambo: Sadler’s Wells x Kingmambo x
Perhaps a surprise favourite in this field at 4/1 with 2 graded places and 2 stakes wins.
His recent record is enough to give him favourite status here with 4 consecutive triple digit speed figures including an 11-1/2 length stakes win with a 106.
Definitely feels at home at graded company after his last 2 runs and is probably due for a graded win but he will need to either bank on others not performing or an improvement SP-wise to win this race.
The odds maker might be onto something with this one, and he looks the one to beat here.
Kowboy: Empire Maker x Singspiel (IRE) x Nodouble pedroza3
May be somewhat offended with the 10/1 odds here after a stellar year last year all be it mainly in allowance races.
Was claimed for 150k but looks to have repayed pedroza3’s faith in him after winning a grade I on Dell Penn Champions Day.
Will have to improve against what appears to be faster competition but he is the most well-credentialed runner in the field and looks to be good value at 10/1.
Destiny Dance:
Winner of the Grey Fox G3 in which a few of these horses competed and he appeared to simply be too strong over 13F.
This race is 1F shorter and that won’t hurt his chances as he tends to lead out from the start and if things go the same as they did 2 starts back he will be hard to track down even at 12/1as he is
All his form is around As Wells Mambo so look for them to be close come the finish line.
Cobra Mystique: Cobra King x Lear Fan x Caerleon sabbath5
The first of the sabbath group’s entries is a fairly mediocre-bred filly who has not had the best of it lately.
Never really getting up to the SP figures of others in this race, this could be both a bit tough and a bit long for her to bring home the bacon here.
Her last two races are certainly enough to scare punters away from her but a strong performance here and she could be back on track.
John Butler:
Another non-blueblood runner out of a seemingly nice producing mare, this 18/1 shot seemed to peak early in his career.
Produced 2 very nice runs as a 3 year old to win stakes races but has taken a step backwards since then.
Did win an allowance nicely last start and may be getting back on track but still hasn’t shown anything recently to suggest he will win here.
Tete Cathedral (IRE): Sinndar (IRE) x Storm Cat x Spanish Drums sabbath
The second and last (to draw in) Tete horse is also the second Sabbath group’s horse to run looks to be the best in both the mentioned groups.
Perhaps all this second talk is an omen to him coming second??
Most of his running has been done at the 9 -10.5 F distance range but his SP’s are very competitive and if the distance isn’t a problem class shouldn’t be either.
Good value but coming off an injury may restrict his performance.
Awegustus: Awesome Again x Unbridled x Sadler’s Wells theagakhan
Another of the more favoured runners here, Awegustus has had a very good time of it recently, finishing 3rd in the DPCD race won by Kowboy as well as winning 2 stakes including one with a 107 over 11F winning by 6-1/2 lengths.
If he runs as he has in his last 3 starts then he’s just about a certainty to hit the board and if he can reproduce his last effort he may well break through for his first graded win here.
Even if he doesn’t have a great race this time out, this is one for the owner to look forward to and come the end of the year he may well be in the top 10 in the long dirt older horse rankings.
Fusaichi Krissy: Fusaichi Pegasus x Storm Bird x Buckpasser danmancan
This homebred filly is out here to take on the boys for the first time after proving she’s more than good enough against her own sex.
She’s only failed to hit the board twice in her 15 race career and both were in stakes races of which she’s now won 6.
Class is no issue, beating the boys is a tough ask though and her speeds have generally not been as good as those of the best here but she will have a bigger test here than in her last 3 races which may push her to higher efforts.
Certainly not one to discount here especially with her light racing career.
Overall a very even field with a couple of standouts consistency-wise but just about any horse here could cause an upset if he runs to his best.
Personally, I’ll go with As Wells Mambo from Destiny Dance and Fusaichi Krissy.
Good luck to all owners with all entrants looking forward to a good year in the Dirt Long Division.