Joseph’s Pride Coming Up Lemons
Joseph’s Pride was the pride of owner barba316. Second in the 2002 Swale Stakes at 3, the colt went on to great success sprinting on either surface, culminating in a Grade III win in the SnowPhantom Appreciation, a turf dash at the end of 2002. A four-time stakes winner over three years, he earned just over $322,000 while facing some fine sprinters.
It’s in that spirit of pride that North Carolina plays host to the $45,000 Joseph’s Pride Stakes for three-year-olds. The namesake of the versatile sprinter is a six-furlong turf dash over a turf course that was adversely affected by this week’s winter storm on the Atlantic Coast. Perhaps owing to the wet turf labeled “good”, it’s a compact quintet of colts going postward. But if it’s not the wet weather, the headliner is imposing enough. That would be Legendary Lemon, ranked #10 in the three-year-old turf sprint division and a strong favorite to capture his fifth career stakes win at 6/5 on the morning line.
Make no mistake about it, though: it’s a rather tricky spot to be in, as three of the challengers facing him have strong angles to prove the ranking member of the field isn’t going to have the 60% winner’s share of the purse handed to him. Cross on the green, and not in-between, as we look at the abbreviated field:
Legendary Lemon [Lemon Drop Kid x Irish River(FR), trained by hardnfast] draws the inside post, but is only a narrow choice at 6/5. The favorites’ role is nothing new to this Kentucky-bred, as he was 3/2 when wiring them in his three-year-old debut last month in Connecticut’s Crowded Seattle Handicap, but if they’re going to beat him, they’ll have to catch up with him first. This colt insists on the lead, or being incredibly close to it, and though his high ranking was aided in part by facing smallish fields in listed company, each time out he’s stuck very close to the front end, and that’s not likely to change now. His pedigree suggests stretching out is inevitable, at least to miling, but in a short sprint such as this, he only needs to stand in close contact to the front end to cash a check. He’s also 1-for-1 over wet ground, which gives him a distinct advantage over a field where his foes either haven’t run on wet grass or haven’t been too impressive doing so. The trainer’s good, the jock’s fine, the horse is well-bred and in good form, and there’s not a lot of room to, y’know, criticize him; aside from maybe the weakness of his opposition to date, he deserves to be favored here. The only question is a matter of whether he can stand up to pressure on the lead, seeing as how he’s liable to be joined at the front by at least one of his foes.
Right On The Spot [High Chaparral(IRE)-Groomed, by El Prado(IRE), trained by whoami3] is a colt I have a connection to, even though I would never have known about it until doing research for this article. Note the he-mare? I trained him for about seven races, back in 2005. I didn’t have much luck with him, primarily because though he was well-bred, I didn’t want to risk him in a claimer. Ultimately I relented, and he left my care for a tag. He didn’t win for anyone else, either, and so someone performed some “elective surgery” and this three-year-old is the end product. He has just a maiden win, but is the third betting choice. What gives? Well, the Irish-bred broke his maiden two back, and his connections thought it best to see if he could run to his pedigree in the Panhandle Derby in his 2007 debut. It doesn’t appear as if that took, so he’s dropped to a listed stakes and turned back in distance. The angle about surface switches and turning a horse back in distance is a proven success story, and the hope is that’s what will happen here. The maiden win was pretty strong, and dropping back to a preferred sprint will help, but he’s still got some things to learn. He did debut in stakes company, finishing last of four, and he’s managed to get the maiden win pretty easily, but though the speed figures are alright for this time of year for a three-year-old, there’s better ones to be had elsewhere. He does better coming off the pace, and there’s a pace to chase here, but if he likes soft ground, that seems like his best hope for a win; nevertheless, it’ll pay to include him at the bottom of a trifecta bet.
Satan’s Steed [Kingmambo x Roberto, trained by worldwide] is bred for grass in theory, and the Kentucky-bred’s pedigree is quite majestic, but the ability has been slower to develop. After a middling turf debut almost a year ago, he tried dirt, and the numbers got better to earn him a maiden win. After a pair of allowance flops, he returned to grass, and won his return in an allowance which got him a career-best speed figure of 80. But when he stepped up in class to stakes races, his results returned to being middling. His last showed little spark when fourth in an allowance in his seasonal bow, and he returns in a small field stakes here. It’s difficult to give trainers tips so young in a horse’s career when they haven’t had much time to develop, but his numbers are pretty equal on either surface, and he’s not shown a lot against stakes opponents. A return to dirt might be in the offing later in the spring, should this race not give much of a boost. To be fair, though, his jockey is off to a hot start on the year, and a hot pace in his wet grass debut could give him something to chase down as he likes to come late to the party. He’s also turning back from nine furlongs, which might be too far for him under any circumstances but should help him in cutting back. However, he’s the fourth choice in the betting, and there are just better options to investigate among these, in spite of his pedigree’s potential.
Laureano [Lonhro(AUS) x Roberto, trained by scout4] is the second choice at 8/5, and had some solid credentials to be a very solid threat here. He hit the board in each of four starts, he wired a stakes field in his three-year-old debut last time, and he earned the second-best speed figure in the field with that win. The Australian-bred colt is fast from the gate, and is liable to be the one trying to lead the way from the break, and the expected duel up front should be pretty intense. There’s a lot to like about this one. Yet, on wet ground, there’s something that should give bettors pause. He has one start over grass with some give in it, and that allowance really wasn’t a bad race at all; the colt went out on the lead easily in a Friday allowance against a full field of eight, and looked pretty good to take them home before faltering badly down the stretch. He blow a rather big lead for a sprint, and wound up beaten almost two lengths after being up by as many as three. The speed figure, too, was nothing to write home about, and the follow-up earned him a stellar speed figure against stakes company. Granted, in such a tiny field, he might not actually have to be ultra-swift to hit the board, and one race of four might not be enough to say he’ll like or hate anything. But based on that one race, I’d be resisting an urge to put him on top of my tickets on the race. His jock is great, and he’s a more-than-capable shipper from the Euro division; still it’s the belief here that the course conditions are a deal-breaker for his chances in this spot.
Stop The Terrorism [Pass The Peace x Stop The Fighting(IRE), trained by toofus1] is a Texas-bred colt on a mission. (The state tags, BTW, are a godsend, particularly for a BTB writer trying to come up with complicated characters for a good story. Just sayin’.) Now, the pedigree is, I’m fairly safe in saying, available for the price of penny candy come Saturday night. But the horse is a gamer. He was bred on a theme, and that theme just also happened to contain some fine grass bloodlines, including Saint Ballado, Cure The Blues and Irish River(FR). So it’s not surprising he seems to have taken to the turf. What is surprising is that, though this colt is a bargain-bred maiden in five starts, he’s also twice stakes-placed in his five starts. He could hang close on the lead as he wishes, but the pace duel here is probably going to be a snappy one. Closing doesn’t seem to be a strong suit, so sitting close to that pace is likely the way he likes to run. He caught a wet course in a MSW last out he didn’t seem to like, but his numbers also don’t seem to be all that great in stakes company on a firm course; in fact, his best speed figure is still 16 less than the best one here. There’s some bright side here for the colt’s future, though. He’s not tried the dirt yet. He’s not been over a mile on grass yet. If he can get the maiden thing straightened out, he could be something sharp. Even though it’d be foolish to openly dismiss any horse with blacktype, even one who is still a maiden, he’s got a couple of buzzsaws to contend with here, and this might limit his success here to a minor share of the purse.
My selections:
1. Legendary Lemon
2. Right On The Spot
3. Laureano
4. Satan’s Steed
5. Stop The Terrorism
Good luck to all, stay warm and dry, and happy racing.