Shirley Smith Stakes-G3

Shirley Smith Stakes
Grade III
Seven furlongs
Good Dirt
$150,000
Fillies and mares, 4 years old and up

Wow!  I need a shot of tequila after trying to analyze this race.  I’m glad I’m covering Mexico this week.  A full field of 14 have past the starter’s box for this year’s running of the Shirley Smith Stakes-G3.  What looked like an easy race to handicap just got all muddy (literally and figuratively) after showers hit late last night.  The skies have cleared a bit but the track hasn’t had time to completely dry out and is rated as “good”.  What this does is gives a very credible shot to several mid-odd horses who have shown a liking to the mud and with perhaps a couple of exceptions, you can’t really take anyone’s name off the list of possible winners.  I’ll skip my usual handicapping tip and tell you to throw 14 numbers in a hat, pull out six and run your trifecta box that way.  I can almost predict a $1000 plus trifecta payout in this one.

-Maverick

PP 1

6/1 SUPREME TEAM

(INCLUDE x SOVEREIGN DANCER x WHAT A PLEASURE)

Trainer:  fairyking

Dirt Sprint Rank : 86

Off 2 0 0 0

After putting together a very nice season last year, Supreme Team hopes to build on that momentum with her first graded win today.  She’s a strong second choice with the string of four consecutive listed stake wins she accomplished last year and came within a length of nailing a graded win two races back in Blueberry Stakes-G3.  She’s fresh with a month’s rest and stretches back out to her preferred 7 furlongs.   Look for late kick in the final stretch.

PP 2

10/1 TOMATO MAGIC(IRE)

(GALILEO (IRE) x THEATRICAL(IRE) x BLUSHING GROOM(FR))

Trainer:  toplight

Dirt Sprint Rank : 212

Off 4 2 0 0

The very versatile Tomato Magic makes another go on the dirt today and you have to wonder why she doesn’t run more of them.  Although she has shown that she good on either surface, she does show slightly better speeds on the main track.  She’s broken the century mark in SR four times with three of them coming very recently on the dirt.  Both off track wins she has came on the turf but she ran a bang up race in September in The NEVADA ALLIGATOR Stakes-Stk which was on a sloppy surface.  Although she finished fourth she still put up a good effort and another showing like that will more than likely put her in the money if not in the winner’s circle. 

PP 3

24/1 HOTSPARKS(AUS)

(FLYING SPUR(AUS) x SIR TRISTRAM(IRE) x BOB’S DUSTY)

Trainer:  bdhp

Dirt Sprint Rank : 766

Off 2 1 0 0

Hotsparks looked very promising as a two year old turfer as she quickly rose through the ranks but seemed to even off after turning three.  She’s been running on the dirt for the last year and a half and is slowly improving.  She has run decently in allowance company but hasn’t really shown that she has the class to take on this field.  Her best finish recently in stakes or higher was back in July where she finished 4^th in The ALYVOR NASKRA Special-Stk with only five runners total.  It looks like she has bitten off more than she can chew here and it’s hard to give her any kind of decent chance.

PP 4

9/1 A.P. SUPERWOMAN

(A.P. INDY x KINGMAMBO x DANEHILL)

Trainer:  vampire2

Dirt Sprint Rank : 46

Off 2 0 1 0

Breaking from gate #4, A.P. Superwoman is another four year old filly that looks ready to handle older company now.   She was very competitive in 2006 as she hit the board on several occasion in stakes company including a very nice win The HALF DANCE Memorial-Stk where she marked a lifetime best 108SR and a very close second two races back in the Natural Spring Stakes-G3.  She picks up an off track for the third time in four races and has shown some liking to the mud.  She’ll need to show a little than she did in here last outing where she looked sluggish and failed to menace however she should bounce back nicely if sharp.

PP 5

6/1 AIM FOR THE MOON

(WOODMAN x HIGH YIELD x DARE AND GO)

Trainer:  teamfoppa

Dirt Sprint Rank : 11

Off 1 0 0 0

Aim For The Moon gets snubbed by the track handicapper despite her #11 ranking and six stake wins last year.  It’s hard to imagine why she’s second choice as she made a huge noise last year with four consecutive stake wins which included three Grade 3 races.  Her only race on an off track came in her last race where she didn’t run quite as good as she is accustomed to.  This along with a horrible showing on DPCD probably justifies her odds some.  If she can rebound the 6/1 odds looks like a good bet but the main question is how she’ll handle the off track.  I think she deserves another look at top billing and I think she’ll show that her last race was just a fluke. 

PP 6

11/1 CAT RENA

(DANZIG x STORM CAT x FORTY NINER)

Trainer:  elesto

Dirt Sprint Rank : 183

Off 1 1 0 0

Cat Rena makes and interesting choice at 11/1.  For every reason you can find to scratch her off your list you can find just as many to give her a decent chance.  Although she has shown some decent speed she struggled to win in the allowance ranks and hasn’t got the job done in her three listed stake events.  She’s coming off two rather sluggish runs although she did manage to catch a soft field in The SEVEN RIVER Cap-Stk and finished second with a 98 SR.  With that said, she did show a level of consistency last year before her last two runs and with a softer field here, has a decent chance at hitting the board.  Finally, her only off track race was in July where she put up a monster 106 SR which is better than any of the rest of the field.  If she leaves you scratching your head you’re not the only one.

PP 7

10/1 GRATUITY

(MEDAGLIA D’ORO x THEATRICAL(IRE) x ALYDAR)

Trainer:  odubhghail

Dirt Sprint Rank : 369

Off 1 1 0 0

Maverick’s Long Shot of the Day!!!  If you’re looking for a very good return you might like Gratuity.  This up and coming filly looks like a monster ready to unleashed.  She makes her stakes debut today after SR’s in her last three races of 102, 105 and 106.  She has won on an off track as an early three year old but that race is a hard one to judge her chances.  She has had some killer times at this distance but has a late closing style that has done her in as she only won one of the above mentioned three races.  She just seems to run out of track and perhaps is looking to have a go at two turns.  Her dosage profile (4-2-14-2-0) suggests a router and her running style shows it.  However, she’s picked up a decent field to show her skills and could have a chance.

PP 8

39/1 ALLURING NINER G

(FORTY NINER x LURE x SHARPEN UP(GB))

Trainer:  zz

Dirt Sprint Rank : 67

Off 4 1 0 1

Alluring Niner G is still looking for that form she found as a late two year old to early three year old.   She was already a winner of four listed stake event by July of last year and seemed ready to show more but has lost a lot of what she had in the months since.  Although she’s found a few sparks in the span while hitting the board she’s really dropped off lately.  Her first two starts this year in restricted allowance races have been just bad.  In fact, she’s only been able to break the 90 mark in SR in one of her last six races and it would take a return to glory to have a shot here.  A very nice try but I see a breeding barn in her not to distant future.

PP 9

13/1 FIVE POINTS

(POINT GIVEN x FORTY NINER x BLUSHING GROOM(FR))

Trainer:  lenny1

Dirt Sprint Rank : 137

Off 1 0 0 0

The bane of the brussel sprout industry, trainer lenny1 enters her today somewhat perplexed.  His filly, Five Points makes her second consecutive sprint race and the 106 SR in that last race just jumps off the page.  He may be miffed to the 13/1 odds she’s getting after three stake wins last year including two Grade 2’s and another very close 3^rd place finish.  However, after seeing SR’s all over the board, lenny1 started the year with the above mentioned allowance prep race and seems very confident of her chances after that start.  She’s probably not getting as much respect since she’s unproven at this distance/level.  However, her entry here makes the final outcome all the more confusing.  As a side note, she has a full brother out of the same mare named Forty Deuce who’s top 25 ranking among three year olds looks good for a Bluegrass run.

PP 10

16/1 GROOMED TO ROMP T

(GONE WEST x BLUSHING GROOM(FR) x CREME DELA CREME)

Trainer:  pick6

Dirt Sprint Rank : 307

Off 5 1 1 1

2006 was a tough year for Groomed To Romp :  19 races and zero wins.  She showed that she was competitive very early on last year by staying in the money in enough graded events to qualify her for the Bluegrass Oaks-G1 last year where she finished 18^th.  Since then, she hasn’t really been a factor in any graded races she’s entered but does have two very nice listed stake race 2^nd’s.  The most recent was this past December in The ARTFUL BONNIE Stakes-Stk she found new life on an off track and gave way only in the final 1/8^th with a 101SR.  This marks her third consecutive off track attempt and the last race was even more impressive.  Although officially she finished 6^th in the Dandelion Sprint-G2, she was only 2 lengths off the winner and basically finished in a three way tie with Aim For The Moon among the three.  Only a photo analysis separated the bunch.  With such a good record on an off track, I think you can throw her in the pile with the rest of the possibilities.

PP 11

9/1 CHARLOTTE

(CHARISMATIC x HANSEL x SEEKING THE GOLD)

Trainer:  silverazor

Dirt Sprint Rank : 168

Off 4 1 2 0

You might want to put a circle around the #11 horse.  Charlotte drops down slightly in distance and moves up in class for the first time in over a year.  This Charismatic mare has shown liking to an off track and picks up another one, her third in five races.  Although she only managed one listed stake win last year she finished 2^nd on six other occasions.  She shows not only that she has the speed to compete versus this field but also has comparable times against the morning line favorites.  She has a front running style which is always a plus on an off track and the shortened distance seems to work in favor.

PP 12

8/1 TREASURE COAST

(SILVER DEPUTY x MR. GREELEY x VAGUELY NOBLE)

Trainer:  paddy

Dirt Sprint Rank : 55

Off 4 0 1 0

Breaking from the #12 post, Treasure Coast looks strong after a third place finish on DPCD.  Although she was winless last year in Graded races she did manage to pick up two listed stake wins and won twice at this level or better as a three year old.  Her run on DPCD showed what this mare is capable of as she bested both Staked Claim and Aim For The Moon.  However, Aim For The Moon  did manage to get the upper hand finishing on top on two other occasion though including in her last race where she once again showed a dislike to an off track.  With a wet track it’s hard to judge her chances as she has a clear record of non-performance in the mud.

PP 13

5/1 STAKED CLAIM

(MINING x WITH APPROVAL x TOM ROLFE)

Trainer:  oddly

Dirt Sprint Rank : 185

Off 1 0 0 1

Staked Claim makes her first start of 2007 today after taking seven weeks off and gets top billing by the track handicapper.  She hopes to rebound after a horrible showing in her last race on DPCD where she finished 8^th and with the worse SR she’s had in over two years.  However, 2006 wasn’t a bad year for year despite her record.  Although she only managed one win in a listed stake she had two very close seconds in graded events with 110 SR’s.  It just seems that one other horse was just able to put together a career race in both events.  She has won at this level several times before but is only slightly favored as she has shown signs of inconsistency in her speeds.  I’m not ready to mark her down as done yet.  She’s a very deserving first choice.

PP 14

12/1 MOON OF CAIRO

(DEPUTY MINISTER x POLAR FALCON x ALYDAR)

Trainer:  zipchippy

Dirt Sprint Rank : 171

Off 0 0 0 0

After spending most of her career going around two turns, Moon Of Cairo found new life after being dropped slightly in distance.  She rewarded her trainer, zipchippy, with two listed stake wins last year including The PLUM CAP Bonanza-Stk ran this last October.  This is not a new trend as many older horses start to lose their competitiveness routing and find the going sometimes easier in sprint events.  She’s coming off a career best SR two races back in The BEAU GINNY Challenge-Stk where although she finished 2^nd she scored a top notch 105 SR.  In that lies the problem with many routers making the move down in distance.  Many become accustomed to running with late charges and find themselves running out of track with plenty of steam left.  Perhaps we might see a her go closer to lead this time around to take advantage of her stamina.