G1 Arkansas Juvenile: Surprise! Tap to Bluff Back in Two Weeks in Derby Rush; Contenders Johan Pets Da Cat, The Grey Warden Forced Out

For those trainers hoping to guarantee their colt a spot in the 20-horse Bluegrass Derby starting gate, there’s no place but Arkansas this Saturday.  The G1 Arkansas Juvenile represents the last Derby Lock prep race on the schedule this spring.  With most of the top guns having already departed for Kentucky, the 14-horse field this Saturday features just four graded winners and no Grade 1 winners. 

Of the various big stories in the hopper for this race, perhaps the biggest was the late surprise entry of G2 Fountain of Ute runner up Tap to Bluff.  He finished 3rd (SF 104 for his second straight race) in the G1 Florida Derby just two weeks ago and was set to train up to the Bluegrass Derby before his connections made the last minute decision to enter this race.  Such is the pressure of the road to the Derby.  Three-for-six lifetime, including a stakes win at 1 3/16 miles in January (SF 98), this early-presser type breaks from post #2 and is listed at 10-1 on the morning line.  He looks to become sire Tapizar’s third graded stakes winner.

Late additions came at a price for a number of live entrants, each of whom was squeezed out of the starting gate after looking like they’d be in the field as this morning.  Those included sprint star and winner of the G2 Saint Vincent Johan Pets Da Cat, G3 Chicago Derby runner up Goodbye Gift, and impressive G1 Sand Castle Derby fourth-place finisher The Grey Warden, whose Derby dream may well be over.  More on them later. 

Let us look at the graded stakes winners in the Arkansas Juvenile field:

#3 Preacher’s Cause 8/1 – Scratch-bred by Giant’s Causeway just missed in the G3 Cryogenics Juvenile at one mile in just his fourth career start and won the G3 Nashua Special two races later at the same distance.  He popped two 100+ speed figures as a juvenile.  This is just his third start of his sophomore campaign, and he’s looking for his first board finish of the year.  The deep closer would be no surprise in here but the fact that he hasn’t progressed off his two year-old numbers is cause for concern.

#4 Awesome Indy Wells 9/1 – The winner of the G2 Land’s End in Kentucky at 1 1/8 miles (SF 110) in wire-to-wire fashion has everything going for him right now.  That race was only his second race of the season and you have to wonder if his connections weren’t tempted simply to train up to the Bluegrass Derby off that performance.  Four-for-seven lifetime Awesome Again scratch-bred will try to take them as far as he can and he’s going to be tough to beat.

#7 Wild Ride Cadet 11/1 – Another scratch-bred Grade III winner.  Son of Candy Ride upset the G3 Rebel Yell in front-running fashion over this track just five weeks ago and now looking to pull an Arkansas prep double.  Speed figure that day (106) opened eyes, but did he get away with easy fractions?  That race drew only 11 entrants and there really wasn’t a ton of quality speed signed on.  Only race at nine furlongs was a mediocre fourth in listed company in Kentucky, though that result was flattered when runner-up Bloodboiling took the G1 Wooden Indian last week (though winner Almosthockeyseason flopped in the Corkscrew).  Still, you have to love the win over the track and the continued improvement.

#13 Amongst the Waves 10/1 – One of the few English-bred colts on the Derby trail, this son of Compton Place became his sire’s only graded stakes winner when he took the G2 BBRS Hustlin Hoosier in March at 1 1/8 miles while still eligible for the N1x allowance condition.  The speed fig that day was big – 107 – and it’s good to see that he has won at this distance, albeit it on a dirt track labeled “good.”  Has a versatile early/pressing style that should suit him here.  Dam Lost Baggage (Sadler’s Wells) has three other foals who have raced and none have gotten anywhere near the level of this colt, who is a true breeding success story.

The inclusion of Johan Pets Da Cat would have made for five graded stakes winners in the field.

Here’s the rest of the field, from the rail out:

#1 The Sim Reaper 11/1 – Bernardini scratch-bred was fourth in the G2 Stanford in his third career race, was a stakes winner in his fourth race, and then ran third in back-to-back G2 races to close out a great juvenile campaign.  Was fifth in Dubai last time out in the G1 Sand Castle Derby and now gets another shot at Derby eligibility.  Two races as 1 1/8 miles have been good – a G2 3rd (SF 99) at age two and the aforementioned Dubai effort (SF 101).  Can move up but needs to do so to compete here.

#5 Mission inthe Rain 10/1 – One of three Malibu Moons in here.  This one looked great in winning over 1 3/16 miles in listed company three weeks ago (3.25 lengths, SF 103).  Coming off three straight speed figures between 101-103 and could be right in the mix with a move forward here.  Can do his best from dead last or from a stalking spot. 

#6 Dark Storm Rising 6/1 – Out of the money just once in ten career starts, this son of Bernardini out of Grade II-winning male dam Striking Storm (Mr. Anderson Special, Rising Sun Spring Cup) ran a good second behind Amongst the Waves last time out and finished second in the G3 Risen Star as well, behind Derby Lock winner Outback Bloodhound (G1 All Saints Derby).  Speed figures in each (105 and 108) were excellent.  Midpack closer has a big chance in here. 

#8 Hidden Identity 9/1 – Uncle Mo colt was runner-up in the G2 Land’s End, just a neck behind winner Awesome Indy Wells, and he was gaining on that colt fast at the line.  This deep closer has been slow to develop but has turned it on as a three year-old, winning three straight routes (including a listed stakes event) before his graded stakes debut last month in Kentucky.  Off his last, he’ll be dangerous in here and is a true Bluegrass contender if he gets into the field.

#9 Achilles Meal 17/1 – How about an Italian-bred colt on the Derby trail?  Federico Tesio himself would have been proud of this breeding job – sire Prussian has thrown just two stakes winners from 76 total runners and stands for peanuts.  Dam Nailed to the Cross (Not for Love) has thrown one stakes winner and has basically made her living on obscure sires after a couple higher-profile flops.  She nearly won a Grade III (Timber Stakes) route herself as a three year-old.  This one finished a really strong second (SF 104) in the G3 Scam in California in three year-old bow at 18-1, before running 4th in the Felipe Alou.  Makes first-ever trip east of Cheyenne for a race and is dangerous off his effort two back.

#10 Sex Bob Omb 6/1 – Malibu Moon scratch-bred was a non-threatening second to Wild Ride Cadet in the Rebel Yell on the heels of two straight listed stakes wins prior.  He’s 4-for-5 lifetime (with a G3 runner-up finish) on fast dirt, and he’s bred for this trip. 

#11 Corruption Ted 21/1 – Another entrant of a male dam, this son of Empire Maker took his only win against winners in a five-horse Japan-bred race as a two year-old.  He’s a bit of a wild card, making just his third start of the year, and considering his last two (compare 2nd in G3 Giant Slayer, SF 99, with 12th in G2 Moises Alou, SF 89) could not have been more dissimilar.  His race in the Giant Slayer was a good one, but there isn’t a single horse in that field that had won a graded stakes before, or has won one since, and the winner just got trounced in Louisiana.  Seems too slow even on his best.  Dicey.

#12 Dopelgangland 17/1 – He’s still eligible for an entry-level allowance race, and in fact lost one last month, but the Malibu Moon colt has drawn in here on the back of two strong G3 placings at a mile during his juvenile campaign (2nd in Cornstalk in Kentucky, 3rd in Pea Patch Juv. in West Virginia).  He also had two graded placings in sprints last year.  Dam Xtra Dancing has thrown four stakes winners from seven foals, and is such a producer of precocity that she has a two year-old who has already won this year; her best foal to date was G3 winner Future Came to Be (A.P. Indy), who won the G3 Atlanta Cup at 1 ¾ miles.  This one broke his maiden in a stakes race and has shown a promising midpack style in routes.  Could improve in just his second dirt start of the campaign, but his connections didn’t show a lot of faith in his chances to win this when he was put into a turf allowance last time out.  Mixed bag.

#14 Girl Scout Cookies 9/1 – Really a bummer they went with the “new” recipe and got rid of the trans fat… they just don’t taste the same.  And I hate how some factories call them descriptive names like “Peanut Butter Patties” instead of “Tagalongs.”  Oh, the colt is pretty good, having run third two back in the G3 Risen Star with an eye-popping 107 speed figure.  Was also third in the G3 Times Square Derby (that’s right – he ran in a Derby at age two and is now in a “Juvenile” race at age three) at 1 1/16 miles, the same distance as the Risen Star.  Risen Star result was flattered when Outback Bloodhound won the G1 All Saints Derby next out to secure his Derby spot, though this one flopped there.  Has a closing style that tends toward minor awards though the extra sixteenth might help.  A lot to like here.

Less than 24 hours from the drawing of entries, each of these five horses looked like they had a spot in the starting gate, and their bad luck is a testament to how difficult the road to the Derby is:

The Grey Warden – Dam Lucy Pancakes (A.P. Indy) won stakes going long and threw multiple stakes-winning stayer I Miss Lucy (Awesome Again).  Won a listed event at this distance in England two back (SF 101 over good dirt) and was a closing 4th, missing by just two lengths last time out in Dubai’s Sand Castle.  Just paired up figures and could jump forward off those.  Sire Dubawi gets runners going long as well so you know this one would stay the 1 ¼ miles on Derby Day.  Unfortunately it now looks like this major player will not get his opportunity on the First Saturday in May and will have to point to another major goal.

Johan Pets Da Cat – 5-for-10 lifetime son of Johannesburg was looking to take the “Nyquist” route to the Derby, having begun his three year-old campaign in a win in the seven furlong G2 Saint Vincent stakes (SF 107).  His first route race was the 1 1/16-mile G2 Felipe Alou in California and was ugly – 8th place (SF 88).  Bred top and bottom for speed; dam Johnny Pets Da Cat (Petionville) has thrown two other stakes winners – both in sprints.  It was definitely worth him taking a shot at the Derby but this one is probably going to have to settle for being a great sprinter.

Goodbye Gift – Out of a male dam (Elite Sense, by Street Sense, who won $528k lifetime and two graded dirt routes at age three), this son of Giant’s Causeway has won three of six lifetime and comes in off a great race at 1 1/8 miles.  In that race, the G3 Chicago Derby, he made a big move to miss by just ¾ of a length (SF 106).  That was a pretty weak field, but still, the effort must be respected and he would have been live in here.  He’ll instead try a much softer field in the G2 Heat Less in Kentucky on Sunday.

Downright Deadly – Mineshaft speed demon wired a listed stakes at 10-1 over this distance two back, with a big speed fig of 106.  Didn’t seem to enjoy the good dirt track last time out in the BBRS Hustlin Hoosier. 

Magic Malibu – Dam They Call Me Magic (Danzig) has thrown three stakes winners total, including Grade III winner I’m Street Magic (Street Sense), who won 9 of 29 including the G3 TOCA Sprint.  Son of Malibu Moon would have been by far the most experienced colt in the field, at 3-for-13 lifetime.  He endured an arduous juvenile campaign, which ended with a listed stakes win at 1 1/16 miles and then finished second in the G3 Pleasure S. at the same distance.  Has beaten a total of seven foes in two graded stakes races this year.