Orangeton ‘Cap Offers Every Angle

As one of the oldest stakes in the Sim, The Grade II Orangeton Handicap will have its ninth running this Saturday, seventh since moving to the New York dirt.

With one notable exception, the Orangeton has been very kind to longshots over the past seven years.  In 2005, Forty Nine Lives II paid 19-1 while setting the stakes record.  Those odds were matched in 2003 when El Naughty earned his last graded win.  And in 2001, Oliver Minstrel paid over $70 for a winning two dollar ticket. 

The other common thread for all but the one notable exception is the winners were all four year olds.  Only five entries in today’s full field are four year olds.

The only past winner who was not a longshot and was not a four year old was Hall of Famer Duke Ali, who won as the favored six year old in 2002.

Here is a look at the field:

1. Java City Gold (Java Gold x Carson City) has tried graded stakes four times before and has yet to finish in the front half of the field.  Levittown (7%) has brought the seven year old out what looked like retirement, as he hadn’t raced since April.  His best race came last time off a two week spacing, so expect him to need to shake some cobwebs off with this outing.  22-1.
2. Black3Car2 (8%) picked up Harder to Catch (Elusive Quality x Souvinir Copy) for a $2500 claim two races back.  He’s run away from a higher priced claiming field and then an allowance field for two quick scores for these connections, but a win here would shake all my faith in any notion of class as a handicapping angle.  He owns a listed win as a three year old and may contribute to an early pace here.  35-1.
3. Depravity (Red Bullet x Deputy Minister) was a top two year old and looked to be a contender in the Bluegrass, but the Funster (20%) trainee didn’t show much then and hasn’t won a stakes since.  He appears to rounding back into top form again though, and his last race, an odds-on win over a small allowance field, gives him the third fastest last-race speed figure in the field.  Many of the contenders today, and that includes Depravity, like to come from well off the pace.  There should be speed for them to run at.  10-1.
4. Unraced as a two year old, Mataiva (War Chant x Halo) began his three year old season with four straight wins.  His confidence hurting after a drubbing against older in a DelPenn stakes, he could not find his stalking rally in a one turn race last time.  Still very lightly raced, this Bronco2 (7%) trainee should not be dismissed despite the long odds.  Expect some maturity to have come his way on January First.  He won’t need much improvement off his back speed to win this, and he gets to be among those with first crack at the early speed.  18-1.
5. Unamazingness (Unbridled’s Song x Kris S.) rallied for three straight impressive wins early in his three year old campaign and looked to be a dangerous, rapidly improving longshot in the Bluegrass, but he could not keep pace with the other late speed that day and is still looking to regain his winning ways for the Mardigras (20%) stable.  There are encouraging signs.  He passed half the field late in a very tough Morrison Mile two back and last time showed some nice kick in an allowance the barn may have been using to prep for this.  The barn was able to persuade top jockey N Lawton to pass up the favorite for this one.  His speed figures are on the light side – his only triple digit race came in his Derby prep.  17-1.
6. Last year’s winner of the Orangeton overcame a dull effort in a DelPenn stakes just prior to this race.  That’s good news for favored Journeyman (Seeking the Gold x A.P. Indy) – he showed nothing last time in his DelPenn mile.  Trainer Kiri (21%) has sure shown he can bring this one back from a dull effort.  Of the six other times Journey has finished out of the money, four times he’s won his next start, including three graded wins.   There’s even more good news here.  He leads the field in many categories, most impressively with more than two and a half times as many stakes points as any other and a bankroll over $2 million earned in just 28 starts.  Ranked number four, he’s the only one here in the top 25.  So, can he be beat?  The history of the race says yes: four year olds and longshots have dominated and he’s a seven year old favorite.  There is also the matter of his jockey.  A Pritchard has been just ordinary.  9-2.
7. Deputation (Hennessy x Deputy Minister) picked up seven wins in just nine starts last year for Twinhollow (13%) and comes here with a three race winning streak.  His best races have come sitting just behind the first runner or two and pouncing late.  That makes for an interesting style here.  By a quick reckoning, there look to be maybe five horses that should be trying for the early lead and five quite content to come from well off the pace.  Deputation should have no excuse in trying to run his race: There should be a pace battle to sit behind and not a lot of competition for the sweet spot just behind the early runners.  He tried graded company once before and could not find his rally.  6-1.
8. Badder Than Bad (El Prado x Nijinsky II) ran against the restricted owner DelPenn Mile, a field much softer than Journeyman’s, and finished a nice third for Super18 (19%).  He’s been consistently in the money in allowance fields, and the Supers feel they’ve found a graded field he can compete in.  Speed figures suggest he fits with these, and he is a longshot four year old….12-1.
9. Faas Hollandia (Pientre Celebre x Seeking the Gold) ran a blistering opening quarter last time and could not hold off the winner in an open allowance.  Hollandia3 (27%) trains what should be the speed of the speed here.  There’s no question of strategy – this one runs hard out of the gate and will try to hold on.  He’s shown at least a little fade in six of his last seven races, and he’ll be facing some formidable closers here.  On the other hand, when this barn says they’re ready for a class rise, they’re ready.  The second choice in the betting makes only his second stakes try and first in graded company.  5-1.
10. Caerlon (14%) made one of that stable’s finest claims when they picked up Leavenworth (Atticus x Easy Goer) for a mere $2000 last year.  Twenty five races into his career, the connections tried him in stakes, and he responded with two wins in four tries.  He has never been running faster, and they try another class rise.  I’m sorry to say those stakes wins came against some pretty weak fields.  It would be a surprise to see him capture more than a minor prize.  8-1.
11. A previous owner trained One Wild Cat (Wild Again x Storm Cat) to three wins in 13 starts before she tried dropping him in for a $35,000 tag.  SDMF5 (29%) picked him up and predictably plied their magic with him.  This amazing stable has earned seven wins in 17 dirt starts with this horse, including three of the last four. This is his first try in graded stakes.  He’s an early runner and figures to battle with Faas Hollandia and maybe others.  Last time he showed an improved ability to prevail after a race-long battle that figures to make him ultra sharp for this.  6-1.
12. Smart Quest (Smart Strike x Trempolino) beat Leavenworth two races back and Faas Hollandia the time before that.  He didn’t show much last time, and Bizor (6%) has given him a seven week freshening.  Tries graded company for the first time.  Would prefer to see an easier race off the layoff.   His one listed win was nice, but not overwhelming.  12-1.
13. A race for “three year olds and older” in early January should come with warning to anyone considering entering a three year old not to do it.  I don’t know how many pounds it would take to handicap the older ones to make the race fair, but I know that kind of weight isn’t imposed here.  It seems Congaree2 (6%) fell into a trap when the stable entered Kela Lost (Kela x Lost Soldier) here.  The modestly bred three year old had some success as a two year old sprinter, but this won’t be pretty.  99-1.
14. Festive Fifty (Sadler’s Wells x Gone West) has an excellent record on off tracks, yet he barely ran a step in the slop last time in the Gravestone Cap.  StormCat55 (21%) can take solace in how often previous winners of this race have shaken off dull efforts in their races leading up to this.  Deep closers can throw clunkers from time to time without them meaning much.  Festive has thrown two bad races in his past eight tries – Without them this four year old would be one of the favorites.  The problem is that they came in his only graded tries.  It is a common phenomenon for a horse to run fast at a certain level, only to run much slower when stepped up in class.  That is the entire question here: were those two bad races just the random bad races from a deep closer, or is he a horse limited to do well only up through listed stakes class?  9-1.

Top Threes:

Morning Line:       Journeyman       Faas Hollandia      One Wild Cat

Speed Last Race: Faas Hollandia   One Wild Cat       Leavenworth

Back Speed:        Journeyman        One Wild Cat       Festive Fifty

Current Class:      Journeyman        One Wild Cat       Leavenworth

Early Pace:          Faas Hollandia    One Wild Cat       Deputation

Late Pace:           Unamazingness    Journeyman          Festive Fifty

Timmn’s Picks:    One Wild Cat     Festive Fifty           Journeyman