Which Juvenile Is Set to Erupt?
Who was Eruption, the newbie might be inclined to ask. That is, if the newbie has never been around to read Tony/Afc’s annual laments and self-flagellation around Derby time. Eruption, dear reader, was a paragon of Derby dreams as a juvenile. He was magnificent. He lost only one race out of six as a juvenile, trouncing quality fields by daylight. He improved with each outing (with the exception of that single loss), capping his two year old career with an astonishing 113 speed figure in the Grade I Movieland Futurity. Sounds like a Derby favorite right? Sounds like a titan amongst mere mortals. So what happened? What happened was he turned three. It started out not-so-badly with a solid second in the Fountain of Ute. Next came a painful 38-length loss in the Gary Asher, and an almost-as-bad 20-length loss in the Federico. But he’d turn it around for the big day, right? That’s how it goes in fairy tales and fantasies. But here, in reality (well, sort of), Eruption ran…like….cold…molasses in the Derby, beaten by 23 lengths. Of course, he perked right up for his next start and continued on to a stellar career. But that Derby loss haunts Tony to this day.
So, who would name a race for Derby hopefuls after the Derby’s best-known disappointment? The DelPenners would, that’s who. ☺ (By the way, Tony is a good guy and an awesome trainer, but, hey, it’s DPCD.)
On the inside will be Given2’s up-and-comer Given Glory, going off at 10/1. This son of Point Given is off to a roaring start with three wins in four starts. He has won all three of his routes and has stepped up steadily in class with no problems. This will be his first graded start, however, and he will be facing some of the best out there. His numbers are improving with each outing. He is absolutely one to watch in the next few months, but I want to see what he can do in graded company before I get too excited about him. This week will be an interesting test for him. By the way, Given has mentioned on the message board that he has never had a graded horse by Point Given. Some people would take the hint, but I guess it’s cute that he keeps up hope in the face of reality. (Kidding! It’s DPCD, after all.)
Next door will be Jarrod5’s What a Corka, going off at 17/1. This veteran of 9 starts cashes steady paychecks in minor stakes, but is taking a big step up here. I don’t see this as being a crowd he can handle, but he’s a very useful colt nonetheless.
The next colt is Auror’s Be Auror Song, displaying odds of 13/1. He’s been all over the map in his first four performances, but tossed off a handy win in an overnight stakes last time out. He may well appreciate stretching out another furlong here. He’ll need to improve quite a bit for this race, but it’s not out of the question. I like his breeding and will be interested to see how this guy develops.
Wild Streets is one of just a few Breeders’ Bowl Performers to come back for DPCD. Metfield’s colt didn’t much like that last race, but his trainer his hoping he’ll return to the form that won the Grade 2 Camel Juvenile. While his Camel run was very nice indeed, his two other graded performances have been much less impressive. He’d need to improve a fair amount to do well here, and I just don’t see a good reason to expect that. Don’t discount him entirely, though – more than once he has surprised people by running well at long odds.
Lasthope’s Ghostly Debut goes off at 9/1 and is coming off a gutsy and fast win in an overnight stakes. In graded company, he ran third in the Grade I KY Horseman’s, but disappointed in the North Fork. Stalker has shown some mettle, but may not be quite strong enough to take on a very serious Grade I field like this one.
Barrstable brings 32/1 longshot Kull to the table, and at those odds I kind of like him. He absolutely exploded in his first route attempt, beating a small field in an overnight stakes. The big question is whether it was the off track or longer distance that perked him up. I’m inclined to hope it’s the distance. While I don’t think his chances are spectacular, I think the oddsmakers have underestimated him. There’s value to be had here.
Darthblur is sending the 7/1 Creepy Mesa to post, and this colt is looking spectacular. He ran a freakish 99 speed fig in his last outing, trouncing the field in the Grade 3 Upper State Juvie. His only loss was his debut, he has since won three routes, improving with each as he steps up in company. The more I look at him the more I like him. Watch for him to come from several lengths back, and, in fact, just watch this guy in general. He looks like he has an interesting future ahead of him..
The most accomplished horse to join the field is a filly. Levers’ Sisson’s Chant won the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile Filly, as well as the Grade I Horsehead Juvenile Fillies. She put forth a huge effort in the Juvenile Fillies, winning with a 94 speed figure. She has beaten the boys only in allowance company, but if she continues her growth off the Juvie, she should be very much in contention. Biggest concern with her is that she might bounce off that big BB win. Kudos to the trainer for taking on the boys in such a big race. This filly has shown she can trounce the best of the girls – let’s see what else she can do.
Freeky’s Silly Cause hasn’t beat anything tougher than overnight stakes company, but she has certainly looked good doing it. The Smart Strike daughter has won her last two handily, including an overnight stakes. She posted a good number in that last race, but she’s taking a very big step up here and choosing to take on the boys at the same time. I think she has a bright future, but I doubt this will be her hour to truly shine.
Superstables brings their Mr. Consistent, Psychotic Gold to the dance this weekend. Never off the board in 7 starts, this guy is coming off a solid third in the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile. This guy simply never runs anything but a solid race. Will he still be a bridesmaid this weekend? Well, the supers managed to land him a jock with a 25% strike rate, so they’re certainly doing all they can for him. He continues to speed up with each race, which should put him in contention here. I’ll be surprised if he’s off the board, and I’ll be surprised if he wins.
Crandyiv’s Henianlaunch will hit the track as the race’s 5/1 favorite, and has landed a very nice jockey in the 16%-winning B. Ironside. This colt has been working his way up the ranks and has yet to disappoint after 8 starts. Always on the board, this speedball is coming off a gutsy win in the Club Stakes. The most notable competition for the lead will be Given Glory, who has yet to prove himself at this level, so the favorite has a real shot at stealing this race from the front. He’s proved himself at this level, he’s been running quickly and well, and he has a good jock. This colt has an excellent shot.
Wabred1’s Northern Bullet is an interesting little colt who is improving with each outing (which is good, since he ran a 44 fig in his debut). He finished a competitive second to Creepy Mesa last time out, running a big race. He was also a solid third against a strong field in the Grade II Darling Squash. He’s stretching out another furlong here, but I doubt that’ll be a problem. He’s absolutely one to keep an eye on.
Ydracing3’s Cat Five Cyclone is a veteran of eight races and has hit the board in five of them. He’s hit the board three times in graded company, so has been a solid contender at this level. In the end, though, I doubt he’s capable of keeping up with the best of the best. He has yet to crack the 90s in his races, and it’s going to take better than that to hit the board here. I’d also like him better if his jockey won more than 6% of the time. He’s a graded-caliber horse, certainly, but the stars aren’t coming together for him in this one.
Pick4 rounds out the field with Otto Who, a 27/1 longshot. Despite those long odds, he really is a respectable runner. He’s generally improved up to the overnight stakes level, but got hammered last time out in his first graded attempt. I just don’t think he’s meant to run in this kind of crowd, for now, anyway. S. Middleton’s appalling 4% strike rate doesn’t help. He has a nice career ahead of him, but not in races like this.
Good luck to all the runners and thanks to DelPenn for continuing to put on one of the most competitive and fun events in the sim!