Sophomores up for a million in DelPenn Turf Mile(G1)

SILKS

PP/ODDS

HORSE/TRAINER

COMMENTS

PP1

SILVERSHAFT

(MINESHAFT x DANZIG x SILVER DEPUTY)

Breaking from the inside gate, Silvershaft with trainer lenny6 shortens up a bit here from his usually 10 furlongs and I like the move.  Although he is winless at the stakes level, graded or otherwise, he has shown marked improvement the later half of this year.  He finished a very strong second in September in the Saint Ledge Stakes-G3, which I covered, and it seems that the surface switch back to grass was a good move.  He posted a career best 107 SR in that race and may improve again here after an 8^th place finish last time out in the Coxless Stakes-G1 despite a 102 SR performance.  If you toss out that 12 furlong fiasco, you’ll find a horse that might surprise many of the betting public.  The big question mark has to be the change in distance as his races earlier this year at this distance were not noteworthy.  However, you’ll have to decided whether he’s more suited at 10 furlongs or if those races were ran before he started to mature.  Tough call either way.

10/1

lenny6

PP2

RIDE FOR SHOW(IRE)

(INDIAN RIDGE(IRE) x BOLD BIDDER x LUTHIER(FR))

Perhaps feeling a bit snubbed by the track handicapper, trainer flurgen5 brings his #5 ranked filly Ride For Show(IRE)  to Pennsylvania for a shot of redemption.  This filly has certainly been competitive this year against the boys as she’s finished her last three races in the money against her male counterparts including a win two races back in the Fujimoto Stakes-G2.  In fact, those last two races have come against older males so you have to think that a return to horses her own age should only add fuel to her fire.  She has already managed to finish ahead of second choice Spare T(IRE) in the Mospe Cup-G1 early this year and in the Fujimoto Stakes, which I covered for the BTB, she defeated the very heavily favored and current #7 older horse Redsadky.  If anyone is going to challenge , Maol Dhomhnaigh(IRE) for the early lead then it will be her but I’d look for her to sit just off his rear quarters and press the pace from behind.

8/1

flurgen5

PP3

MIA THEN BACK

(FORTY NINER x DANZIG x SECRETARIAT)

The very lightly raced Mia Then Back makes his first stakes attempt of any sort today but it makes you wonder what took so long.  He’s notched seven wins in his eight lifetime starts, all of which were allowance races, and makes only his fifth start this year.  He also shows a level of versatility on either surface and has the SR ratings to back up his entry here today.  The only thing left to consider is how he’ll run when faced against a highly classed field as we’ve assembled here.  All four races as a two year old were owner restricted events and three of his four wins this year were “non-winner of” restricted races with fields of eight of less.  However, with the superior breeding and the previously mentioned speed ratings he should show well today and hopefully answer a lot of questions.

7/1

madhibby5

PP4

MAOL DHOMHNAIGH(IRE)

(GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x MR. GREELEY x ROMEO)

Our morning line favorite, Maol Dhomhnaigh(IRE), comes into today’s race as a strong first choice.  He has a solid record of eight wins in thirteen tries on the grass and chalked up his first graded victory two races back in the The Irish Immigration Stakes-G3 against older horses.  He narrowly missed in his last race finishing second by just a head in The Geegee Turf -G2 losing to long odds Silver Court.  What I liked about that race though was that he showed that he can come off the pace and still compete which has not been his running style all year.  Although with only a few horses expected to challenge for the early lead, you might just see him switch back and try to wire the field.  He goes for stakes win #6 today and with consistent SR numbers in the 100’s he’ll be tough to beat.

4/1

itch2

PP5

SPARE T(IRE)

(THEATRICAL(IRE) x DANEHILL x MACHIAVELLIAN)

Spare T(IRE) makes his first start since Breeder’s Bowl Day where he made a good showing in the Breeders Bowl Mile-G1 finishing fifth to the #1 ranked older turf horse Seeking Sal.  That’s nothing to sneeze at as he only finished five lengths off the pace and ran steadily throughout but just couldn’t find that final gear in the home stretch.  He’s had a remarkable year with graded wins in the Chantily Lace Cap-G3, The St. James Tavern-G1, The Try the Wine-G1 and in the Coalmine Mile Cup-G2 which was his prep race going into the Breeders Bowl Mile.  He matches a career best SR rating of 110 with the favorite Maol Dhomhnaigh(IRE) and with the better record at this level I’m a bit puzzled at why he’s second choice but I’m sure his recent 9^th place finish in the Mospe Cup-G1 probably didn’t help.  You might like going with the experience angle in this one though as he is sure to sit mid-pack and make a showing of it when it counts.

5/1

super28

PP6

THIRD OFFER(IRE)

(GENEROUS(IRE) x ROLL ON ROBERTO x RICH CREAM)

Third Offer(IRE) looked like a monster at the beginning of the year when he started the season with four stake wins in his first five starts.  These included two graded wins in the All Your Base Are Belong To Us Cup-G1 and the Craven Stakes-G3.  Even though he still carries a top 10 ranking, the going has been a little tough the rest of the season as he seems to have leveled off a bit and his rivals have managed to match him in ability.  He is winless at this level since his run but has managed a pair of minor stakes wins and a close second in the Cherry Limb Stakes-G2 three races back.  What impresses me though is the fact that he rebounded well after getting totally drummed in the Breeder’s Bowl Mile-G1 where he went off at 34/1.  He’ll certainly challenge for the early lead and he’s in a good spot in gate #6.  Interesting enough though, most of his wins have come between 9-10 furlongs so he stamina to keep the pace for the mile if he can muster the speed to compete.

10/1

bewitch

PP7

GROOMED TO GO TED

 (GONE WEST x BLUSHING GROOM(FR) x CREME DELA CREME)

Well, someone has to be the longest shot on the board and at 49/1 he’s really long but not as bad as you think.  Groomed To Go Ted is fresh off winning his maiden last time out in what was his 5^th attempt.  With that said you can say that he didn’t run in the Mospe Cup-G1 and didn’t beat Spare T(IRE).  In fact, he really hasn’t beaten anyone other than non-winners.  However, he’s very nicely bred and has improved in every race so far including a 92 SR in that last race.  If he’s now shaken off that green he might be competitive here and if you can find a way to wheel him in your trifecta you might come out with a huge payday.  With so few starts and nothing to really gauge him with, it’s hard to say how he’ll do against a group of experienced horses but I can guarantee you that he won’t finish last.  I’m not ready to step out there and give him the win but I will say that you might be surprised how well he finishes.

49/1

 stableted

PP8

HAIL CESARIO

(SEEKING THE GOLD x NORTHERN DANCER x SECRETARIAT)

Also making his first start since Breeder’s Bowl Day, Hail Cesario hopes to improve on his last start in the Breeders Bowl Mile-G1 where he failed to menace and finished a disappointing 8^th.  He returns to horses his own age again he has shown that he can win when it counts.  He’s a winner this year of three graded events including the Tette Mile Classic-G2, the Sussex Stakes-G2 and most importantly in the Mospe Cup-G1 where he finished with a career best 110 SR and beat fellow entrant Spare T(IRE) by more than eight lengths.  I think that his last start, which was his first against older horses, just shows that he needed a little more time to mature and I think you might see another career best day here as we close out the season. Expect him to save ground and eventually make a move as they enter the second turn.

6/1

catahoula

PP9

TO DIE FOR(IRE)

(THEATRICAL(IRE) x SEEKING THE GOLD x SARATOGA SIX)

Beginning our list of longer odd hopefuls, To Die For(IRE)’s trainer zewango2 hopes that a prep win last time out in an Alw-30400NW2n is enough to spark some fire into his colt.  He has managed to cash quite a few checks this year though as he has a few good showings but ran a race of a lifetime back in July when he surprised and won THE KILL WAYNE AND SHOW HIS BODY SPECIAL-G1.  However, he has been harshly criticized in many of his races due to his lack of stamina but zewango2 continues to go with the front running approach with this colt.  Could we see a change in strategy for this race? 

11/1

zewango2

PP10

ASCENDANCY

(RAINBOW QUEST x SADLER’S WELLS x LE FABULEUX)

Our second of two fillies, Ascendancy with trainer lbgong, is still celebrating her second graded win two races back in the Sun State Cup-G1.  This Rainbow Quest filly has made a name for herself this year with not only that win but a win earlier in the year in the Filly Turf Bonanza-G3.  I had a chance to cover that later race and I commented at the time of her incredible closing speed.  She certainly proved that if you’re a front runner, then you’ll need to keep looking back to see when she’s coming.  Add to that a couple of second place finishes in the Diana Classic-G3 and the Haley’s Comet Stakes-G3 and you certainly have a potential trifecta spoiler.  She takes on the boys for the first time today so we’ll have to see how she reacts and she needs to improve after a less than stellar run last time out.

9/1

lbgong

PP11

VERMONT VICTORY

(TWO PUNCH x THEATRICAL(IRE) x PLEASANT COLONY)

When I look at Vermont Victory  I see a late developer type of horse.  This Two Punch colt has started to show signs of improvement lately and I think his best racing is still to come next year.  Not that I doubt his chances here as he has shown that he has both the speed and the class to compete as he did in the Mospe Cup-G1 where he finished a very strong second to fellow entry Hail Cesario and beat soundly, cue the choir once again, Spare T(IRE).  It seems as if half this field competed in that one race.  It was a race that after Hail Cesario, that all the long shots came in.  This isn’t a jab at the Super Stables but just a fact that on any given day, any of these horse can pull off the long shot.  Vermont Victory will need to repeat that 107 SR performance again in order to have a chance and will certainly need to improve after his last start in the Fujimoto Stakes-G2 where he just never was in it and finished in 11^th place.

12/1

wtas02

PP12

RATTLESHIRT

(MORE THAN READY x STORM CAT x GONE WEST)

Breaking from the outside post, Rattleshirt looks to keep his top 30 ranking intact with a good showing.  This Storm Cat grandson was winning very consistently at the beginning of the year in allowance company and then moved up a notch in June when he won his first stakes race in the Sticks and Bones-Stk and followed that up three races later with a very surprising but tactical win in the Jockey Club Classic-G2 where he notched a career best 104 SR.  However, he seems to have slumped since then and has run back to back sub-par races.  He has the speed to compete but his inconsistency will probably scare many away.  His best races have come when he sits off the pace just a hair and it will take another smart ride to find his way into the money today.

13/1

stormborn2