The Best Against the Best

Wow.  When DelPenn offers a Grade I sprint for three year olds and up, like today’s $1,000,000 Bullet Stakes, the best fillies and mares show up like they are running for a championship.  They may well be.  All five of the top rated older sprinters are joined by four of the top six rated three year olds.

As you might expect, the morning line oddsmaker had a hard time separating the field, and an awful lot of talented runners are going off at long odds.

Here is a look at the field:

1. Strike the Birdie (Rock Slide x Smart Strike) makes her 21^st start of the year for the Sesho7 (12%) stable.  She’s run in everything from a claiming race early this year to the Grade II Go For It.  Her most recent race was a win against a small field in a listed stakes.  Her earnings per start are less than a fourth of any other’s in here, and while she has serious class issues, her stalking style should have her passing some at the end.  11-1.

2. Seeking the Hawk (Forest Wildcat x Seeking the Gold) is the third ranked three year old sprinter, owning a win in the Grade I Rapid City over Thnxmsslew and South Dakota.  The Lotto (10%) trained filly tried older for the first time last out in an allowance and was prominent early before fading.  Runs best on the lead, but that’s going to be tough for her gain against this company.  19-1.

3. Aim for the Moon (Woodman x High Yield) aims for her fifth straight win for Teamfoppa (11%).  Besides being ultra sharp right now, she’s shown the ability to stalk in five of her seven wins this year.  With all the early speed in here, that looks to be a winning strategy.  She’s the fifth rated older sprinter, but during this current streak, she’s beaten three of the ones ranked above her and the other one has been staying clear of graded company.  Always looking for a downside, we have to point out she has never won a grade I stakes and that maintaining win streaks longer than four is awfully tough.  6-1.

4. With a win here, trainer Dixiedotco (26%) would top $2,000,000 in earnings for 2006.  The veteran mare Birds of Paradise (Seeking the Gold x Storm Bird) will be trying a turf to dirt angle here.  She’s tried it three other times and every time significantly improved her speed figure.  An improvement from the 102 last time makes her very dangerous here.  All three of her graded wins this year have come against her main foes in here, and she can rate.  Odds are tempting.  9-1.

5. Explosive Storm (Storm Cat x Danzig) is an explosive late closer who should love the anticipated pace battle.  Last time she could not catch Aim for the Moon, and three races back she just missed catching her, but the time before that, she blew by her easily to win the Grade I Dancer.  PJLRacing (17%) stable thinks she can turn it around here.  The recent gradual decline in speed figures may be of concern here, but expect a strong showing here.  6-1.

6. Treasure Coast (Silver Deputy x Mr. Greeley) beat a small allowance field last time in wire to wire fashion, and Paddy (11%) steps her far up in class.  She picked up a pair of graded wins last year, but this year, especially recently, the going’s been tough.  She finished close in the Grade III CV Bear’s, but still was behind three others in here.  Sometimes a bit of success, like her win last time, can wake a horse up and signal a return to former success.  That’s the hope here.  12-1.

7. Six weeks ago Kacymygirl (Macabe x Silver Ghost) didn’t run a step in a listed stakes.  The NJ50 (15%) barn claims she is fine and the number four rated sprinter is ready to give a top effort.  Recent top efforts have meant a win in the Grade II Delta Tau Chi over Puentalarra and a close third in the CV Bear’s.  This Breeder’s Bowl champion runs best on or near the lead, and that may be problematic with this company, but at these odds, she is a must to include in exotic bets at the least.  21-1.

8. Su-su-su-su-Suffregette City (Carson City x Affirmed) has faced many in here before.  She lost to three of these in the Grade II Go For It, two in the Grade I Dancer, and she was a fast closing second to Puentalarra in the Grade I Speed Speed Speed.  You may have noticed a pattern there: the wildly successful SDMF5  (28%) stable has not been able to get her to win a graded stakes, and her recent form has not been strong.  Still, it is always dangerous to dismiss the chances of anything this barn sends postward.  14-1.

9. With her gaudy recent speed figures, Staked Claim (Mining x With Approval) claims the morning line favoritism.  The Oddly (15%) trained mare fought off pressure both early and late to win a listed stakes last time.  She began the year with five straight graded stakes.  The bad news is that in every one of them, she finished behind a horse that she faces again today.  She won a few graded stakes last year and recent form says she may well be ready to return to the winner’s circle today.  5-1.

10. A win today would mean $2,000,000 in lifetime earnings for the number one ranked older sprinter, Puentalarra (Sadler’s Wells x Nashua).  Like some others in here, trainer Har (14%) has been using listed stakes to prep for this effort.  The barn seems unconcerned that she finished last in her most recent race against a very modest field in a listed stakes.  Fading late has been a problem all year for the veteran mare – she’s managed but one graded win, although she usually finishes in the money.  Fittingly, she picks up a jock who regularly finishes in the money without winning that often.  10-1.

11. Seeking the Hawk got the number two post; the other three year olds are all on the outside.  Lenny30 (31%) hopes to take South Dakota (Silver Ghost x A.P. Indy) over the $1,000,000 earnings mark today.  This remarkable filly has won eight of her 11 dirt sprints, including many graded stakes, and has been out of the money only once.  The lone doubt for her is how she can handle older competition.  She won the Grade III Dolly Prummond last time, eight weeks ago (Is the time off a second doubt?), in a field that contained Birds of Paradise, but other than that one, the talent in the field belonged to three year olds.  This late in the year there is not supposed to be any difference in ability between three year olds and older, but it’s still something she needs to prove. Last race was a battle every step of the way with Benny Being Benny, and it figures to go that way again today, only they may be joined by other early speed.  This one says she won’t back down.  11-1.

12. Strong Prospect (Strong Hope x Mr. Prospector) has seven wins in 12 starts, including four stakes wins, for trainer Buttons (11%).  She needs to be near the early lead to win, and that’s probably a problem.  Her lone good performance in a graded stakes, a win in the Grade III Backward Gal came against a weak field.  Her other graded stakes starts are not encouraging, nor is the record of her jockey, who thinks changing leads is a sign of weakness.  This is obviously a very nice filly with a promising future.  She just ran into a tough place to return to graded company.  17-1.

13. Polandfarm (21%) is grateful to own the mare Ms Slew.  Her two year old has three wins in four starts and her three year old, THNXMSLEW (Forty Niner x Seattle Slew) already has four graded stakes wins and a $1,000,000 in the bank.  Her last four graded tries have been out of the money and her only try against older, which she did win, was against much weaker.  Still, she leads the field in earnings per start and has the ability to rally from midpack.  12-1.

14. Benny Being Benny (More Than Ready x Fusaichi Pegasus) only knows one way to run: go as hard as she can every step of the way.  That style has led to a number one ranking among three year olds and six wins in her 11 starts.  In her last four races she has faded late.  Most troubling is last race, where she got caught after leading by almost four lengths against a strong listed field.  EBryant (13%) gets the service of the dominant Delaware jockey.  Number one three year old battling the top five older fillies and mares.  This is as good as it gets.  10-1.

Top Threes:

Morning Line:         Staked Claim                Explosive Storm                 Aim for the Moon

Speed Last Race:    South Dakota              Staked Claim                      Aim for the Moon

Back Speed:           Explosive Storm           Staked Claim                      Kacymygirl

Current Class:         South Dakota               Aim for the Moon               Birds of Paradise

Early Pace:             Benny Being Benny       Puentalarra                         Aim for the Moon

Late Pace:              Explosive Storm           Strike the Birdie                  Suffragette City

Timmn’s Picks:       Aim for the Moon         South Dakota                     Birds of Paradise