Hot pace makes WV race?
By ITCH
Local trainers Bob123g and Wassie figure very prominently in the entry box this week for a 2yo dirt sprint, entering the No. 1 and 4-ranked colts.
However, the first glance at the entry list reveals there could a good bit of class for them to beat, as the second and third qualifiers both have good earnings per race.
MAPLE WALNUT BG is at the top with 48 points. This son of the Garbaccio family sire Crusader Sword returns to the scene of the crime, as it were, as his most recent score was right here at Old Waterford, ringing the bell for Bob in week 3000 in the Cryptolightning Bonanza. That was going a good bit longer than Saturday’s race, though. Different pace scenario entirely going 7.5 furlongs as opposed to 5. 5. A potential red flag is that bad race three back in the WV stake this distance, which he was dismal eighth. Before he convict him of no ability at the distance, however, notice that he was only one length out of it going only 4.5 furlongs in a Grade 3 last out. If he can get within a length of the leader at the wire going shorter in a tougher race, he should be able to handle Saturday’s pace. He’s got the class, and he’s got the best jockey. It is always nice to see S. Tate next to your horse’s name in these here hills. Kind of like Pat Day on a horse at Churchill in the 1980s and 90s.
SCARED OF FLYING(AUS) is a close second in terms of qualifying stakes points with 40, and is in razor sharp form at this exact distance and class. Trainer horseshack appears to have figured this brown son of Flying Spur out, and he’s kicking major tail in his last three, winning two stakes while second in another. They were all at 5.5 furlongs, and this horse is as obvious a contender as the day is long. Why wouldn’t he run another good one? Chances are the train keeps rolling for this emerging star of a good-starting 16 percent stable.
They’ll have to have their running shoes on to contend with the third-place qualifer, RISK TOLERANCE for brightmoon. This chestnut son of Speightstown is an ultra impressive four-for-five lifetime. He was undefeated until beaten a length and quarter last out by Belisaro in a bit of an upset. It was a short field in New York that day, with only six horses running, which may have created a difficult pace scenario for brightmoon’s colt to handle. A short field is often a curse in disguise for a closer, and appeared to be last out as Bellisario got a jump on Risk Tolerance and beat him home. Saturday’s race is shorter, but Risk Tolerance’s closing kick could be more effective at the shorter distance if the pace is hot. With 14 2yos entering the gate, it’s probably going to be a hot pace. After all, Risk Tolerance won here at Old Waterford this class and distance two back, closing stoutly from ninth to take the Surpassingly Hope Challenge. As said about this horse before, it’s a benefit classwise to ship from New York to West Virginia. Look out for this one in the lane, and you know how Jocko loves a closer.
Let’s talk about Wassie’s horse next, the fourth-place qualifier, RAINBOW’S QUEST G. This brown son of Fantasticat is yet another horse in this race who owns a stakes victory over the local strip. All four of the top entrants have done so. Rainbow’s Quest G got his Appalachian Spa score last out in the Secret Boomer Memorail, crusing on the front end while going 7.5 furlongs. So, we have the same kind of question for both of the Garbaccio horses. They can control a pace at 7.5 furlongs, but can they contend wit the wicked fractions of a 5.5 furlong dash? Rainbow’s Quest G. has had the lead in three of his past four races. The only one he didn’t lead? The one at 5.5 furlongs, ,the Surpassingly Hope challenge won by Risk Tolerance. Rainbow’s Quest G looks like he’s a stalker at this distance, and should be sitting a length or two back while wide in the early stages. This is a tough field, and Rainbows Quest G is going to have to run his best to go by on the outside. Charlie likes his chances, making him the co-favorite with Risk Tolerance at 6-1.
TA’S FEARLESS ROAR out of the adrian2 stable is a deep closer who will be looking to outmaneuver Risk Tolerance for the best trip through traffic on the turn. We do not know much about the jockey, Fr. Little, other than he doesn’t get many good ones to ride and is struggling a bit this year at only 6.4 percent winners. It would be an uneasy comfort indeed for someone paying Jocko to ride his horse thinking he has the better rider. A first glance at this colt’s pp’s might make you think he’s a spotty performer, but let’s draw a line through those dull efforts two and five back, while were both apparently out of his distance range for now. Erase those two races and his form tightens considerably, as his last three sprint races have all been good, first once and third twice. He was third lat out in a stake going this exact class and distance. There is no surprise today as he runs back at the exact same conditions, and we could not blame adrian2 a bit if he think this colt is going to run well here Saturday. He matches up speed-figure wise as well.
PORCUPINE TREE for jlincoln is next and is an interesting proposition who is getting respect from Drunken Morning Line Oddsamker as co-second choice at 7-1. Ridden by a capable hand in R. Bruce, this brown son of the classy sire Pulpit drops back down into regular stakes action Saturday after two straight races in Grade 3 company. Porcupine Tree did not seem to like the route distance last out, so we’re giving him that one. Two back,he’s only a length and a quarter from all the money in a Grade 3 going six furlongs. There are several classy closers in here and this one rates a chance among them. Not all of the deep closers are getting through, though, you would not think. A clear trip and this one could land a major punch in the lane.
At the other end of the pace scenario we have I LOVE MY GRANDMA for perko5. This light gray son of Silver Ghost seems to ensure we will have an honest pace in this race. He’s a confirmed speedball type who has backed up in the lane to increasing degrees in his last three while always making the lead. Anybody who has a speed horse in this race cannot be enticed by the presence of I Love My Grandma, because this one is dead set on the early lead and is going to press very hard even if headed early. Sometimes this Mountain Oval will favor speed, and if this one gets an easy lead, there is no reason to assume he’ll stop. Speedballs always are dangerous, and this one has competitive speed figs to back him up.
Nice to see contest player emanon running one here in the hills. He’s got the eighth-place qualifier and funnily named TENNIS BALLS,who is by the little-known Wild Rush sire Wimbledon. This horse has run very well in four of his last five races, and he was only a length and a quarter from all the money last out in a South Dakota stake going six furlongs. No taking away the black type now, as Tennis Balls really moved his career up the ladder with that big race last out. He became a stakes horse that day, and a faster horse, running an 87 speed fig after six straight races no higher than the 70s. It’s a tough field for him to take another step forward in, but if he does run even close to the leaders, emanon can have even more confidence in this colt.
The second half of the Bob123g entry checks in ninth. It’s WELLINGTON II BG, the son of the much beloved BG Wellington Boot. Bob is a proven fan of the sire Alysheba, and he really showed his faith in that sire when he matched one of his best-all time runners with him for the breeding. This is a capable colt as he’s hit the board in both of his first two career stakes races. He’s been second at Saturday’s distance, then held on grimly for third last out when stretched out to 7.5 furlongs. He does look like he likes the 5.5 better, as he was losing ground by the end going longer. The distance could suit this horse, and jockey Ba. Davis is a good gate boy who should break in a favorable position. It’s only his fifth race, and who knows how could this colt could be? What if he’s as good as BG Wellington Boot?
ROLL IT for the black3car outfit will be hitting the gas as soon as they drop the green flag. This chestnut son of the Danzig sire Anziyan is a confirmed speed ball, and will be trading paint early with I Love My Grandma. I do not suppose it was beyond imagination that Old Dale might have bumped Grandma out of the way in the good old days to get the lead. This one is going for it, having made the lead in all six of his career races so far. This one has backed up in the lane in both his career stake tries, and never has run an 80 when most of the other horses in here have. He ensures an honest pace in this race.
There are a lot of proven stakes runners in this race and so one would think it would take an exceptional performance by a class jumper to take part of the pie. Jsimpson is taking a shot with PAR TOWN(IRE), a brown son of Swain who graduated his n2l condition last out. This is a real tough spot for this horse. He likes to run on the front and there is a ton of company up there. I would be impressed if this one can stay in the top half of the field in the lane.
Same thing for AURORA BBOREALIS for the boisepiro barn. This one ran an identical 81 speed fig like Par Town in breaking his first condition. He also likes to run on the front end which is gonna be hotter than a $15 Rolex in this race. He’ll be doing great if he finishes in the top half of the field.
PEINTRE BOOKS(IRE) is in a similarly tough spot classwise for simon, but at least he is a closer. He was sixth at the distance two back in an n2L field, and sixth the only time he faced stakes horses. Neither of those facts inspires confidence and this one looks to be in a tough spot. Now watch him go.
Finally, we have MR. TIMEING, a maiden for lightng99 who is dismissed at 75-1.
GOOD LUCK EVERYBODY!!!!!!