Explosive Storm The One To Beat in Ontario
Race 15 on this weeks
The Blueberry Stakes has been conducted annually here at
2000 – Organic Project – holybull99 – 1.20.8 – 124 – Retired winner of $375k.
Dam of four black type winners: Big Bones Willy (by Dayjur), a dual Grade 2 winner. Awekitty (by Awesome Again), SW. Gypsy Angel (by High Chapparal), a Grade 1 placed stakeswinner and Organic Chemistry (by Sadler’s Wells) a dual stakeswinner from just seven starts.
2001 – Every That Tempest – giantputz2 – untimed – 114 – Retired winner of $802k.
Dam of three including The Road Warrior, a triple stakeswinning 2yo by Grand Slam
2002 – Quatorze Dupe – dougmatt – 1.21.4 – 116 – retired winning $358k.
Dam of Stone Cold Birdie a stakeswinner by Birdstone, and her promising two year old full brother Stone Eight.
2003 – Cupid’s Companion – pirate – 1.21.4 – 117 – retired winner of $1.7m.
Dam of Cupid’s Prince, a stakeswinner by
2004 – Maninski – whoami3 – 1.21.0 – 120 – retired winner of $169k.
Dam of Arctic Monkeys, a two year old maiden by
2005 – Vanguard – sanchez – 1.21.5 – 112 – retired winner of $1.3m.
Dam of Valerius, a two year old maiden by
History indicates that a long and healthy future awaits the winner of this event. Let’s work through the formguide for this year’s renewal:
Aniron has drawn the inside gate, and as a last start stakes winner, and recent Grade 2 winner, she automatically slots in amongst the genuine chances. A daughter of Black Tie Affair, she’s the first and most successful progeny of Alyjet (Theatrical / Alydar) a somewhat disappointing winner of just two from thirty starts, who spent her entire career in this same celticcros barn. Aniron has been a consistent, regular earner for her stable, having failed to bring home a check in just three of her thirty six starts to date, with wins every year from her two year old days till now, when at six she is showing no signs of slowing down. Her dozen wins and thirty ITM finishes have seen her bank more than half a million dollars, and although the majority of her racing has been conducted at allowance level, she includes three ungraded and one Grade 2 victories among her accomplishments. She’ll be well ridden by V. Townsend and her versatility indicates that as long as she’s within striking distance in the run, she’ll be in the mix when it counts. Given the favorable barrier draw, it’s almost inevitable that she’ll look a winning chance when they straighten.
Grand Causeway jumps from 2 and represents the super empire as she looks to improve on her two most recent third placings in races at this level. She’s due for a change of luck as she’s been racing consistently, but has failed to greet the judge since winning consecutive stakes races in February and March. Sired by
Gate 3 will be occupied by Ampuria, a consistent three year old filly who made the step up to the older competition last start and, although beaten six lengths, finished third of nine. This followed a mile stakes win in
Year of The Buda has drawn 4 and this four year old filly has simply forgotten how to run a bad race. It’s more than fifteen months since she’s gone home without a check, and in the ensuing fourteen races she’s won four times (one stakes), finished second twice and third four times. lacostra has her racing as well as ever, with two wins from her last three, the most recent an ungraded stake in
Gate 5 is the starting position for Explosive Storm, a mare with everything going for her here. She’s impeccably bred, she has an incredible strike rate and she’s racing in superb current form. Only Puentelarra heads her in the rankings for the older division applicable to this race. She’s a recent Grade 1 winner over this trip and she heads the betting in this race because she has thoroughly earned that honor. No expense was spared in the creation of this mare, pjlracing using Storm Cat,
From 6 comes Moon of Cairo, a more than handy five year old mare coming into this off a stakeswinning performance last start. She’s a scratchbred daughter of Deputy Minister / Polar Falcon / Alydar, and boasts an impressive eight wins from 28 starts. She’s a bit of an enigma, capable of putting in the occasional shocker, but equally capable of stringing two good ones together. Twice previously she’s won consecutive starts, and connections will be hoping to make that three times with her run this week. Of some concern is the fact that she’s never placed in graded company, but then breeder / trainer zipchippy has asked her to try just three times before, unsuitably once on the grass and again against Grade 1 company in the Equinics. With two wins from her last four, she’s racing as well as ever, and her capable jockey will settle her beyond midfield as she attempts to achieve the biggest win of her career. Moon of Cairo cannot be supported with great confidence, but neither can she be left out of the real chances.
Stall 7 is the starting slot for Redshaft, another quality lenny filly who was given a solid allowance grounding, following a single early foray into the black type. As a three year old she’s put away the requisite four allowances, prior to two consecutive stakes wins against the older females. She comes into this looking for four in a row, and with a total of seven wins from twelve to date, she’s in with an undeniable chance. Redshaft is a daughter of Mineshaft, and is by far the better of two progeny from the underperforming Jerry’s Seinfeld (Summer Squall / Mr. Prospector), a winner of two from twenty. This weeks jockey doesn’t come from the top of the tree, but he gets a chance to improve his percentage on an inform runner here. This is a quality race with many genuine chances. On the strength of the 1.21.6 she returned over this trip in
Supreme Team alights from gate 8 and is another racing consistently well against a similar standard of opposition to that which she meets this week. With four wins and a third from her last five trips to the track, all those recent runs returning triple digit speed ratings and with six wins to date this calendar year, nothing can be taken away from her on the score of recent performance. Supreme Team is a scratchbred daughter of the young Broad Brush sire Include, with Sovereign Dancer and What a Pleasure rounding out the pedigree. She started her racing life impressively, winning at her first two runs, before falling away from that early promise. After winning her first three year old start against just three opponents, she failed to greet the judge in a further eleven starts in 2005, although she was thereabouts on a regular basis. It was this year, at four, when breeder trainer fairyking was duly rewarded for patience and perseverance, and it is now, as she lines up for her thirtieth start, that she’s producing the best form of her career. She can’t be left out of any deliberations on this race.
Upsetter lines up in barrier 9 and is one of seven three year olds taking on the older brigade. This is her second foray into the open age ranks, and she proved she was up to the challenge last start when leading and holding on for second in
Aim for the Moon exits from barrier 10 as she looks to extend her current winning sequence to four. She’s had a stellar 2006 with just two unplaced runs from her dozen starts thus far, and lines up this week off two Graded and one ungraded stakes wins as she looks to pick up her seventh winners check for the calendar year. Aim for the Moon is a four year old daughter of Woodman, from Jimenez, teamfoppa’s part owned underperforming daughter of High Yeild / Dare and Go. She has had a steady and improving career, winning her maiden at her second and final run in her Juvenile Year. 2005 was a year of consolidation, as she scored three allowance wins from thirteen runs. This year has been the reward. And her position on the second line of betting has been no doubt influenced by her excellent 1.21.6 run over this trip while winning convincingly in
From gate 11 emerges Fu Fu Mascus, a multiple stakeswinning youngster whose recent form slump led to an inspired return to the allowance ranks to rekindle the killer attitude. After winning maiden and stakes at her second and third starts, she went on to perform well for the rest of her two year old season, with two mid-field finishes in Grade 1 events being the only ‘flops’ in a year which included three stakes wins and a grade 3 second. Beginning 2006 where she left off her juvenile season, she won a stakes race against the boys, before finishing just outside the money earners in her next four. A career worst tenth of thirteen in Norway’s Grade 2 Trial by Night Stakes resulted in freeky deciding she need an easy kill. Two convincing allowance wins have encouraged the stable to re-enter the fray. She’s never registered a triple digit speed rating, which is of some concern in a field of this depth, but winning form is good form, so she shouldn’t be underrated. Fu Fu Mascus is a daughter of Giant’s Causeway from Fumascus, a Grade 2 winning daughter of Fusaichi Pegasus / Northern Dancer and she’s a half sister to stakes placed Tabascus (Tabasco Cat) and the promising two year old filly Fu Fu Wells (Sadler’s Wells). She’ll need more than her share of luck, as the wide draw won’t be assisted by the out of form rider, but if she gets that luck, she may run a better race than her price would suggest.
Drawn in barrier 12 is Strolling for Gold, a very smart scratchbred filly, currently flying the flag as the leading earner of the capable but underrated second year Pulpit sire, Stroll. With Mining and Arazi comprising the rest of the pedigree, she’s proven a true bargain, outperforming her solid but inexpensive genes. Strolling for Gold quickly gave owner breeder buzzfarm a taste of what was to come, winning her maiden at her second start, then registering allowance and Grade 2 victories at her next two trips to the races. She suffered a minor slump after that, racing competitively at black type level, but failing to finish ITM in her next seven starts. Finding form once again, she finished on the podium thee times before stringing together three consecutive stakes wins. She was beaten a lip in
Capacidad draws 13, and comes into this boasting an almost 50% win strike rate, having tasted victory on ten of her twenty one trips to the track. Lightly raced for a six year old, she suffered setbacks early in her career. After winning at maiden and stakes level from her first three starts at two, her form dropped for her next four until after just one run at three, she was consigned to the paddock for more than two years, not reappearing till late in her five year old season. Recovery was clearly complete, as she ran second and first in allowances late last year, before setting out on a black type program at six, which has seen her take home the winners slice seven times from a dozen starts this year. deponce bred Capacidad from scratch, using Fusaichi Pegasus, Chief’s Crown and Key to the Mint. It’s taken a long time, but 2006 has seen her well and truly repay the breeding cost, and the career of this older mare still looks far from over. Of some concern is the stat which shows she’s failed to finish top three in any of her five graded attempts, but talented jockey V. Staff will look to correct that, as he settles her rearward before unwinding late.
Mayama has drawn the outside, as she steps up to graded competition for the first time, after a solid grounding which has seen her victorious in half of her twelve starts, including one at ungraded stakes level. A scratchbred daughter of Afleet / Damascus / Nashua, she didn’t hit the track until Mach this year, and she’s set about quietly and efficiently making a name for herself. After winning maiden and allowance at her second and third starts, breeder / trainer maruxa decided to test the waters against the black type. Not disgraced, with a second and a fourth, it was back to allowances for more experience. Strong wins followed in three of her next four, the failure coming in an exploratory test on the grass. Back to stakes racing and Mayama has cemented her place in the higher class with a win, a second and a third in her last three at that level. She’s a talented young filly on the up. She conquered the open aged fillies and mares two starts back and she’s been intelligently groomed for this next step up in class. She hasn’t drawn well in the jockey ballot, and may have difficulty obtaining her preferred forward position from the widest gate, but she’s still on the up and represents good value
Summary: I don’t like tipping favorites, but no matter how many ways I try to visualize the race, it comes back to one fact. Explosive Storm is the one to beat. Therefore, in an attempt to add value to the multiples, I’ll give the minor spots to Ampuria and Redshaft. To save myself from embarrassment in the re-cap, I’ll mention that Aniron, Grand Causeway, Year of the Buda, Moon of
The Odds Makers opinion:
9/2 – Explosive Storm
6/1 – Aniron, Aim for the Moon
8/1 – Supreme Team, Capacidad
The Computer opinion:
Explosive Storm – 2
Aim for the Moon – 7
Aniron – 14
Capacidad – 16
Upsetter – 23 (3yo fillies ranking)