BB Mile Draws Spectacular Field to Kentucky’s Turf

Just in case any readers have been living under a rock or something for the last few weeks, this weekend is NOT Halloween Weekend in the Sim. It is Breeder’s Bowl Weekend!

This particular article will cover the Grade 1 Breeder’s Bowl Mile, an 8-furlong race over the Kentucky turf course to be held Saturday.

For much of the year, Sim trainers have been doing their best to get their top horses qualified to run in this middle-distance event by racing them in other top races around the globe. Here’s a quick recap of recent events:

September 12th: 2014 BB Dirt Mile 2nd-place finisher DRAGOS crashed the turf party by taking top honors in the Grade 2 Maudlin Cup with a 109 speed rating as FRANJOLA ran 3rd.

On September 20th, PIVOTAL ACTION charged from midpack to beat top 3yo colt PYE IN MOTION by half a length in the Grade 1 Canada Mile. Speed: 117

On September 27 in the Grade 2 Stepson Stakes, QUEEN NAMED BARB stalked CROSSTOWN FLIGHT‘s early pace, then charged to an impressive victory over that rival’s solid 2nd. Speed: 113.

Also on Sep. 27, CLIFFS OF DONEEN punched his ticket to this race by winning the Grade 2 Big Europe Mile, leaving the 2014 BB Mile champ in his wake.

On October 4, STRUT THE FLOOR closed from 11th to beat STILLWATERSRUNDEEP and EAT ‘EM UP YUM YUM in the Grade 1 Queen Liz Stakes, earning a 118 in the process.

October 5: Top older filly NINIANNE finished a disappointing 6th in the Grade 1 Prix Marcel Boss Stakes, but her connections pronounce her fit to try colts for the first time here.

On Oct. 10, 3yo colt THE EIGHT CUTS earned a 116 while charging up to get a desperate photo-finish win in the Grade 1 Sourball Mile as favored CAPE CADET finished 5th.

Who will join this list of BB Mile Champions?

1998 – ALONE BETWEEN ROBE (from midpack)

1999 – FOGGY A. P. (well back, won by 5)

2000 – HUGE TALE (wire to wire)

2001 – ENOUGH KNOCK (wire to wire)

2002 – STORM DOG (from midpack)

2003 – STORM DOG (from midpack)

2004 – LA GROOM’S WOOD (stalked from 2nd)

2005 – MIZZEN DIZZIE (wire to wire)

2006 – SEEKING SAL (wire to wire)

2007 – CULINARY CUTIE(IRE) (wire to wire)

2008 – BASKETBALL JONES(KY) (from well back)

2009 – THE CALLING(ENG) (from fairly well back)

2010 – DOOTY DA DOO(JPN) (attended pace)

2011 – DIABOLUS REVERTO(KY) (stalked pace)

2012 – DIABOLUS REVERTO (Record, 1:33.0, stalked pace)

2013 – SUN DYNASTY (from 4th)

2014 – EL GRAN HAACK (in last first half-mile)

El Gran Haack charges from last to win last year’s Mile.  He barely missed qualifying for a chance to repeat this year.

 

I included running styles for those winners to see if there was any sort of bias developing after seventeen runnings. With five wire-to-wire winners and four that stalked the leader, I’d say that a lean toward speedy runners getting the win may be developing.  Note also that last year’s champ El Gran Haack is the only winner to fall clear to last and win it Zenyatta-style. Of course, this is still a rather small sample to work from and anything can happen (and on BB Day, it usually does!).

So, this year’s field is wide-open as all heck.  Most have been taking turns beating each other all year long, delivering performances throughout.  Let’s take a closer look:

CAPE CADET (7/1) had a slightly-off day in his last, beaten by 5 lengths in the Sourball Mile while still managing a 109 speed figure. Since this 4yo Cape Cross colt has earned a 110 or better in seven of his last eleven tries, I’m inclined to consider this a fluke. The litde trainee might prefer a bit more distance, but he has performed well in nearly all of his tries at the flat mile anyway. The big closing rush might be a bit tardy, but he’ll be a-comin’…

THE EIGHT CUTS (11/1) has only eight starts to his name, but he has been quite the awesome runner in those tries, winning six and getting a pair of 2nd’s, both losses in longer races. The Dubawi colt was more than ready when asked to try graded company, taking both the Boston Derby and the Sourball Mile. Trainer given might be wishing this was the BB 9 Furlongs instead of the BB Mile, but the colt did manage to get up in time in his only 8-furlong race… Barely.

NINIANNE (12/1) is a 4yo Sea The Stars filly who earned her way into this race mostly due to her win in the Grade 1 Foul Mouth Stakes three starts ago. She has regressed slightly since that solid win, but trainer dog doesn’t often overestimate the chances of his runners. So even though it looks like she may be in over her head a bit as she tries males for the first time, she can’t be fully counted out.

EAT ‘EM UP YUM YUM (11/1) beat some of these is the Suffix Stakes in early August, but this may have been a freak occurrance. The 3yo New Approach colt was unable to mount much of a charge during STRUT THE FLOOR‘s Queen Liz Stakes four weeks ago, and that appears more typical of his apparent abilities. Then again, 3yo’s sometimes make a quantum leap forward, and trainer tees2 certainly knows how to get a lot out of a horse…

TEARING DOWN WALLS (7/1) comes to Kentucky in search of his third Grade 1 win and fourth graded-stakes overall, but has been just ever-so-slightly off his best game in his last three graded tries, all near-misses. Trainer agk04 gave his scratch-bred 5yo by Monsun a little extra time off and brought him back with an easy allowance sprint win on this course in hopes of finding that last bit of sharpness he’ll need in order to deal with this bunch.

DRAGOS (6/1) is certainly in the right form: Three in a row and five of his last six. Dirt, turf, doesn’t seem to matter to this 4yo War Front colt. “Honestly, I wouldn’t mind taking on this bunch in the parking lot,” says trainer saver. Not that he really would do that or anything, but I get the point… This winner of over $3 million is flat-out versatile. Certainly can get the job done, a deserving favorite.

CROSSTOWN FLIGHT (15/1) had a four-race win streak broken last time out when he couldn’t hold off the late rush from QUEEN NAMED BARB in the Stepson Stakes. Can the xpansion4 trainee find the stick-to-it-iveness he was showing earlier this year when wiring a pair of Grade 1 fields in the Jean Brat and the French 2000 Guineas? By City Zip out of a Grade 1-winning “she-mare”, his pedigree suggests sprinting might be his best game, but those two Grade 1 mile wins suggest different…

CLIFFS OF DONEEN (8/1) is one of just two in this field without a Grade 1 badge to his name, but he does own a pair of Grade 2’s and is as consistent as they come. The stoopslew trainee is a Henrythenavigator colt who almost always fires something like a 110 speed. This would likely put him close, but he needs to find a little bit more somewhere in order to grab all the cash in this spot.

QUEEN NAMED BARB (13/1) showed up big on the big stage when the 3yo Lemon Drop Kid colt took his debut against older runners in stride, zipping home to win the Stepson Stakes over a strong firld that included CROSSTOWN FLIGHT.Does the meatpie trainee have another one like that in him?

STRUT THE FLOOR (12/1)has three wins in eight graded-stakes efforts, but those three wins were also the only Grade 1’s the 4yo Rip Van Winkle colt tried. I guess he just doesn’t get psyched up for those “smaller” races… The speed numbers earned in the Queen Liz and the Sydney Mile are the kinds of performances anyone would dream about, a 118 and a 121. Seems to like long odds, which he didn’t really get here… Trainer m92885 sure knows how to get this guy ready for the big ones!

PYE IN MOTION (18/1) is a 3yo Irish-bred Dream Ahead colt by a stakes-winning sim-mare who started his career off looking incredible last summer, taking three straight wins including the Grade 3 Condo For Rent, then grabbing 2nd in two Grade 2’s. However, he had a mysterious drop in form this spring. Just as suddenly, though, the lordpye6 trainee sprang right back to life and snagged the Irish 2000 Guineas and closed late to be 2nd in the Grade 2 Jean Brat. After a rather unfortunate dirt experiment, he led into deep stretch in the above-mentioned Canada Mile before PIVOTAL ACTION nailed him just before the wire. The tiniest improvement in the timing of his big move, and he could very well get the job done. Speed avg. for last 3 turf mile races is a hair below 115.

STILLWATERSRUNDEEP (10/1) is ranked #4 in the Turf Route division for 3yo’s, having already snagged a pair of Grade 1 trophies for conditioner pogs2 in just 13 starts. The speedy Dansili colt got caught in the stretch by STRUT THE FLOOR last time out; maybe the experience will give him that extra edge to hang on here. He has topped 110 in four of his last five starts, absolutely amazing for a 3yo.

PIVOTAL ACTION (7/1) has run a big race nearly every time on turf, and hit the jackpot with his late move last time out in the Canada Mile, his 3rd graded-stakes win. The English-bred Pivotal colt, scratch-bred from a Lyphard mare, looks every bit like he’s on his way to the HOF. Of course, just about all of them look like HOF types in this race… Conditioned ably by teamasr2, he should be tough to stop if he gets his best move going down the lane. Average speed rating last four 8-furlong races is just barely below 115.

FRANJOLA (15/1) won one of those “public workout” kinds of hot-races last time out with a slowww 70 speed rating, but the 4yo Frankel colt is obviously capable of much more than that, as evidenced in his showings while winning two Grade 2’s earlier this year. My guess is that trainer phantom3 wasn’t quite comfortable with a seven-week break and got his runner out for a little tightening up in that hot-race. Will this ploy work? Maybe, we shall see…

 

*****

 

So, to handicap this thing… As you might guess from my above comments, I have zero clue.  So I went to my trusty fortune teller, Madame Itella NoLies.  Turns out she went out of business last week, drilled three holes in her crystal ball, and took up bowling.

So, my backup plan… I went to another medium I knew, who happened to be a midget. Her tent was just down the street. Got there only to find a bunch of cops rifling through her belongings.  One of the cops asked me if I knew where she might be because she had ripped some other dude off for several thousand dollars and then disappeared. I had no idea, and told the cop so.  As I walked off towards a palm reader I was friends with, I found myself thinking… “I can see the headline now… “SMALL MEDIUM AT LARGE!”

<insert rimshot here>

Okay, okay… As I said, I really don’t have a clue… Should be a great race! Good luck all!