Breeder’s Bowl Dirt Marathon

Kentucky (KY)Friday, October 30, 2015 — 2:00:00 PM EST | Race ID : 1415248
Breeders’ Bowl Dirt Marathon
Grade I / Group 1 – Purse : $750,000
Restricted to 3 Year Olds and Older
14 Furlongs | ~2800 Meters | One Mile and Three Quarters	Fast Dirt

 

Status : Race cards now available.

Entries Closed on 10/27/2015 — 3:00:00 PM EST

 

#

Horse

Bred

A/S

Owner

USD

EPnt

Odds

1

LOCO COLONY

IRE

5F

jrogue5

$2,562,535

324.00

7/1

2

TOSH

KY

6M

gowans2011

$2,160,773

101.00

9/1

3

LITTLE COLUMN B

JPN

4M

pbcash1

$1,793,420

400.13

4/1

4

ZYR

ENG

5M

super10

$1,842,380

224.00

11/1

5

TAP LESSONS

KY

4M

nedsnags

$1,136,441

112.00

10/1

6

OUTBACK BORON

KY

4M

greynomad

$887,605

156.00

15/1

7

DANBAWI

ENG

5M

xpletives2

$800,428

116.00

15/1

8

HAACK’S ROCKET

KY

4M

erenotto

$893,346

204.00

6/1

9

FITZCHIVALRY

KY

4M

khalasar3

$486,910

105.59

14/1

10

IDEAL VIEW

KY

4F

sealsheels

$726,700

96.00

11/1

11

LORD OF BLADES

KY

4M

spqr6th

$601,259

156.00

12/1

12

FACTOR X

KY

4M

aguadeep6

$316,459

86.00

23/1

13

K’S CASSIUS CLAY

KY

5M

latinlover

$650,071

134.50

13/1

14

SHAKEN GIMLET

JPN

3M

kroth6

$934,995

188.53

15/1

 

It’s the Marathon!  Let’s get this party started, in order of qualifying points!

PP#4  ZYR (Dubawi o/o G1 winner PRAVDA, by Kingmambo X Pleasant Colony) has been there, and done that.  He was a maiden until his 9^th start, and did not venture into stakes competition until the final start of 2013.  His 4yo season was one for the ages, winning six Graded stakes, four of them Grade 1 at the 14 furlongs distance of today’s contest.  The one that got away was the narrow loss to LOCO COLONY in last year’s edition of the Breeder’s Bowl, held in California.  Still, ZYR wound up with well-deserved End Of Year honors in the division, and started 2015 with success in Graded company once again.  Alas, it was his 28^th lifetime start – that dreaded number for dirt runners which often signals the beginning of the end.  ZYR was a shadow of his former self in four subsequent starts, all unplaced.  Super wisely rested him over the summer, perhaps for one last hurrah and a crack at $2 mil earned before heading off to the simulated gender reassignment surgery suite.  The internet tells us that “ZYR starts with clean, naturally filtered water from Russia’s North West, not far from the Finnish border. The water is then filtered five times in preparation for its marriage to the fermented blend of grains. After the five distillations of ZYR’s mash, ZYR is filtered four more times using carefully selected birch tree charcoal granules to remove any remaining impurities and round out the taste.”

Indeed, ZYR has been expertly filtered, fermented, and distilled by the supers, using five long allowance races to build up his speed and stamina.  ZYR was filtered four more times – his four G1 victories.  Perhaps five would have been excessive.  Sure, ZYR is not a likely winner this time around.  The truth is, it would not be pure propaganda to suggest that the body of work for the career of ZYR deserves a ‘perfect 100’ rating.  http://www.zyrvodka.com/home.html#art_of_zyr

 

PP #1  LOCO COLONY (Montjeu x Storm Bird x Pleasant Colony) came into last year’s BB Marathon as an upstart ingénue – inexperienced (12 lifetime starts), outclassed (a G1 and two G2 victories), and isolated (making her first start against males).  The fine preview by rharfo correctly stated that she “likes to run on or near the pace and seems to show more fight if she can dictate the pace, with three of her better wins coming” when she lead throughout or sat just off the speed.  The race was packed to the brim with classy speed.  Of course, something else happened:

LOCO COLONY

IRE

4F

jrogue5

J Wilson

109 482

12

10-1/4

11

14-3/4

9

10-1/2

—

13.66

 

That “—“ indicates the number of lengths behind at the finish – zero.  By bringing her from way out of it, trainer jrouge was a genius, the luckiest so-and-so, or maybe both.  This year, LOCO COLONY is anything but an upstart – she’s the reigning champ and EOY winner for the ladies long dirt division.  She’s tacked on two more G1 wins and three other placings on her way to $2.5 mil, and is not slowing down with only 19 lifetime starts on her ledger.  After winning the 16F G1 Scottsdale Stayer in typical high-cruising fashion, she “prepped” with a better-than-it-looks 8^th vs. the boys in the 10F Jockey Club Gold Cup.  If she can handle the relatively quick 4 week turnaround, there’s no reason to think she can’t repeat and become the all-time queen of the dirt marathon.

 

PP#3  LITTLE COLUMN B (Admire Moon o/o CANKEROUS SEA, by Seattle Slew X Silent Screen) enters the race as the #1 qualifier with an astounding 400 points.  He’s an overwhelming 4-1 morning line favorite, which is hard to do in a Breeder’s Bowl field of any kind.  Of course, he’s ranked #1 in the division and is trained by the (arguably) #1 trainer lenny271.  Ryan converted him into a marathon type less than a year ago, as the 4yo cut his teeth on a sort of delayed Classic path, resulting in a show finish in the New Yorker and a nice 2^nd in the Clerk of Scales, both Grade 1s.  In three G1’s at the distance, he’s only been beaten once, and only by a few feet when barely outfinished by HAACK’S ROCKET in the Razorback Route this June.  If he wins, he locks up the EOY trophy and still has enough juice in the tank for a repeat try next year.  Any horse who looks to take him down is definitely on a highway to the danger zone.  It’s no surprise to see a Lenny horse well managed and primed as the favorite for a bigtime race, but what may be most interesting here is the origin story.  The man himself told me “It’s funny. This guy is from one of the only open mare breedings I’ve done in the better part of five years. I noticed his mare hadn’t been used for a few years, and that her first offspring (BUCKSCHOTT) by Forty Niner, hit the board in the Derby and Belmont way back when. I took a cheap shot with Admire Moon” and the rest is history. So even when you have a vast selection of top flight mares to choose from like Ryan most certainly does, it pays to follow Sterling Archer’s wisdom and choose a little from Column B, the open mare pool.  But what was in Column A?  Don’t ask.

http://derbyfever.com/onehorse_inline.asp?horse=11400049555

 

PP# 8 The aforementioned HAACK’S ROCKET (Awesome Again x Unbridled x Nijinsky II) comes into the Breeder’s Bowl as the obvious “danger” horse.  Like many good marathon types, he took a while to become competitive, breaking his maiden in start #5 when stretched out to 12 furlongs.  Here’s the thing – he hasn’t lost since.  One of my all-time favorite trainers, Haack (aka Otto), expertly plotted him on a conservative course through the allowance conditions, then an open allowance, and finally a 14 furlong listed stakes debut in January.  As fate would have it, the race happened to be the Buckshott Dirt Stayer, named after that half-brother to the horse he’s trying to dethrone today.  Isn’t this game awesome?  Two more listed races, then straight to G1 glory in the Razorback Route.  He stayed about a length in front of LITTLE COLUMN A throughout, but the gap narrowed to ¼ length at the finish.  Saving something for later, or a sign of things to come?  Otto simply gave him light prepwork after that, and he maintained his streak of now eleven in a row.  He’s not brought his track or his jockey with him, so there’s no obvious flaw in this iron horse.  Discerning eyes might quibble with the lack of a ‘layoff’ since early 2014, but it’s been 13 starts in 19 months, and no sign of wear and tear that I can see.  This could be a coronation of a prince who has his eyes on the throne.

 

PP# 14  SHAKEN GIMLET (Tanino Gimlet o/o Bad Stella, by Dubawi x Seattle Slew) has a past performance list that looks like a cross between LITTLE COLUMN B and HAACK’S ROCKET.  Like Lenny’s horse, he found his calling when 3^rd in the New Yorker, and like Otto’s horse, he’s undefeated at marathon distances.  The difference here is that Selurvinek’s one time turf sprint winner (yes, really!) sort of ignored that whole prolonged seasoning period by winning a 3yo listed race at 12 furlong, and skipping all the grades straight up to the 16f G1 Seattle Stayer for 3yo+.  He smashed them.  While the field did not contain any of the top 4 contenders today, he did defeat the formidable LORD OF BLADES and G1 winner OUTBACK BORON.  By virtue of that victory, he earned a spot in the Bowl and took over 1^st place in the 3yo dirt long division.  Simply hitting the board may seal the EOY victory, but I imagine this youngster (the only sophomore in the race) has designs on starting a BB Marathon dynasty of his own.  He’s never actually attempted this 14F distance, but you won’t see me second guessing his abilities in that regard.

PP# 6  OUTBACK BORON (Smart Strike x Unbridled’s Song x Encosta De Lago) is the first of the Marathoners with a pedigree that made me think “Oh, really?”  Yes, really.  Despite a Wikipedigree calculated dosage of 3.42 and tons of Brilliant-Intermediate-Classic points (10-14-17-0-1, if you must know) and a rare 2×5 inbreeding to Mr. Prospector, this Tulloch (aka Kyogle) runner is a bona fide long baller.  Perhaps his best effort was a 2^nd to ZYR in last year’s 14F G1 Geaux Saints, but more recently he scored a 6 length laugher in the 16F G1 Cayuga Lake Special vs. several of these.  I can relate – I trained the winner of the 2011 BB Marathon, GATO DEL LAGO (Encosta De Lago x Storm Cat x A.P. Indy), not exactly everyone’s idea of selecting for stamina.  Tight fitting genes be damned, the story here is not substance or style, but rather form.  OUTBACK BORON followed his big win with a decent 3^rd in a G2, then three straight inexplicable losses of 20+ lengths.  It may simply be that the continuous campaign and heavy mileage through 23 starts has caught up with the 4yo, but he’s rebounded from poor efforts in the past and should not be discounted so easily.  If a little R&R doesn’t help him turn the tables, well, perhaps a little he-mare procedure is in his immediate future.  Perhaps a son of A.P. Indy…so long as Mr. Prospector isn’t close up!

PP# 11  LORD OF BLADES (Street Cry o/o XTREMELY BOLD, by A.P. Indy x Touch Gold)  has been knocking on the door but not quite grabbing the Graded ring just yet.  Waremblem used the ‘Otto School of Training’ method with the multiple stakes winning 4yo, but he has had trouble when he’s not comfortably in front when turning for home.  He certainly ensures a wicked pace and will make it tough for anyone who thinks they can get a breather and still overtake him.  He does trace back to HOF marathoner XTREMELY GOLD who was quite remarkable and controversial during his day.  The trainer had plenty of backstory and insight to offer on how to campaign with a target in mind – instead of heavy editorializing, here’s what he had to say: “He has run the best four races of his career the last four races but only has one win to show for them. He has run 2nd three times, which may be an indication that he is just a step below the top horses in his division or that he has just had some bad luck. LoB has elite speed for this distance and he will certainly ensure a rapid pace in the race. Is he good enough to win this race? Yes, but he is going to need some help from the fractions and can’t get caught up in a speed duel. At the same time you can’t get away from what you do best so that’s the decisions we will have to consider when reviewing the field and discussing our strategy with the Jockey.

When I ran 2nd in the Seattle Stayer G1 I knew I would have the points to get into this race. I wanted to give LoB another graded race before the BB Marathon to season him up against graded competition as he is a relative new comer to facing horses of this quality. It looks like he is in the best form of his career. Despite how great his grandma Xtremely Bold was, she never won a BB race so it would be thrilling to see one of her offspring bring a trophy home. Since Touch Gold (the sire of Xtremely Bold) is not exactly a SIM friendly sire, I strengthened the SIM pedigree line by adding AP Indy in LoB (he)dam Xtremely Gold then used Street Cry with LoB. This will be the last race of the year for LoB, I’ll bring him back next year and then breed him to American Pharoah at some point depending on how well he is racing.”

PP# 13  K’S CASSIUS CLAY (Giant’s Causeway x A.P. Indy x Dynaformer) has origins in another powerhouse stable who is ever-present come Breeder’s Bowl time, the esteemed Ledwith.  There is certainly the Led training fingerprints on the past-performances, with several hot races used as confidence builders before tackling G1 company in the 2014 version of the G1 Monster Mash (second to another waremblem horse, SINS OF ATRITION).  The kicker is that the horse was not raced by the original breeder, but in fact by Santiago’s Hispano Parlante residency-mate Zampatelo, a star in his own right.  Whether it is a collaboration, gift horse, or a changing of the guard, one must respect the connections in a race of this magnitude. K’S CASSIUS CLAY has yet to win a dirt race at 14F or longer, or a stakes race for that matter, but has plenty of solid efforts on his resume.  In Grade 1 marathons alone, he’s collected a 4^th to go with two seconds and a third, a perfect 4-for-4 on the tote board.  This “close but no cigar” narrative might have Zampatelo cheering for ‘un poquito mas’ at the finish, except for the curious wrinkle of the horse’s last three races.  He won an easy 14F turf condition allowance, got drilled in a G3 Turf marathon, then entered a 13F allowance dirt prep only two weeks prior.

13

-29200|NW3y

-fst

2:44 28

110 218

5

1

3 5-1/2

3 7

1 3-3/4

2 1-1/2

1.79

F Foster

 

That’s an odd middle-move and nabbed-late finish for a horse who is usually much farther back.  The horse who beat him (it gets weirder) is Brundlefly’s SAMALAMAN ISLAND, a Grade 1 winner in his own right, who was 2nd in the Breeder’s Bowl Marathon.  In 2009.  His last race prior to the allowance win?  2011.  Apparently, 47 months on the farm will do you some good.  Wouldn’t that be a heck of a key race?

 

PP# 7  DANBAWI (Dubawi o/o THE UNDERWRITER, by Dansili x A.P. Indy) is a beautifully-bred 5yo from the same Zampatelo training group, but bred and owned by ‘xpletives2’.  His early races look identical to his stable mate, except that he continued to clean up in listed and G3 company before ultimately trying the big boys in the 14F G1 Big Apple (3^rd to ZYR and K’S CASSIUS CLAY).  He turned the tables on KCC when 2^nd in the 16F Cayuga Lake (OUTBACK BORON), which might be his preferred distance.  He’s a plodding, grinder type that passes horses but doesn’t fly past them, and hasn’t been stellar at the 14F distance.  More foreboding is the 29 lifetime starts, and two lackluster efforts coming into the big event.  There’s a great deal working against DANBAWI today but he’s earned his ticket and could easily weave his way through the pack to get a minor placing.

 

PP# 5  TAP LESSONS (Tapit o/o stakes-winner PRIVATE LESSONS, by KINGMAMBO x NUREYEV)  has a blue-blood pedigree that often lends me to speak the phrase “could be any kind”.  In fact he had a little more early success than the common marathoner, breaking maiden at two and posting solid allowance route wins in the spring of his 3yo season.  In a series of moves that could be described none other than “ballsy”, jrouge (him again) moved from a listed stake to… ok let me just show you, in ascending order.

9.5		-24300|NW3L	-fst		1:55 35		102	6		3	1 1/2			1 3/4			1 1-1/4		1 1-1/4
10.5		–Teddys Slew Dirt Route	-fst		2:08 54		104	11		9	2 1/4			2 hd			1 3		4 5-1/2
10		-Princess Cup	-gd		2:00 91		105	14		4	3 1-1/2			2 2-1/2			3 3-1/4		5 4-3/4
16	-Pleasant Damper Marathon			-fst		3:29 89			99 671			14	2		3 2	3 2-1/2		1 2-1/4		1 3-1/2

 

So you’re seeing that right… the speeds go up, the placings get worse, but he enters the G1 marathon race (3yo only) and crushes it.  Again, he’s either a genius or lucky or both.  Guano-crazy comes to mind as well.  On the merits of the G1 win, TAP LESSONS is entered in the BB Marathon where he runs a predictable 8^th.  Not bad, but he wasn’t fast enough.  Since then he’s been all over the map, with mixed results.  A nice win at 16F in a G2, a superior 2^nd to BB Classic contender INCULPATE at 10F, then a clunker in the Sand Castle.  He ran 3^rd on 13 days rest in the G1 Razorback Route; he tried 10F again (5^th), he was practically eased in the Monster Mash (11^th).  I’m not going to try and guess what he’ll do today. Perhaps only Mike Wallace, and maybe jrouge, know for sure.

PP #9  FITZCHIVALRY (Bernardini x Unbridled x Nureyev) is still somewhat new at this dirt marathon thing.  He won a listed route on the turf at 3, and it wasn’t until this spring that Given dedicated him to the realm of 12F allowance races in California.  He steadily progressed (see Otto, Zampatelo, et.al.) and won a 16F listed route, then was second in a (player sponsored?) 14F G1 in June.  Another 16F listed stake was enough to earn him the points for a BB berth, but his collective stakes efforts have been uninspiring.  Dan knows how to play the points game as well as anyone out there, so it’s not easy to look at the PP’s and determine that this horse who hasn’t done it before will not in fact do it today.  His last out (unplaced 12F G3) is either form regression or gamesmanship, making him the official AT&T-Budwiser- Jeep Cherokee- Red Robin Williams Memorial Longshot play of the day at 14-1.

PP #2  TOSH ( Distorted Humor x Nijinsky II x Deputy Minister) is the elder statesman of the field, the lone 6yo making his 32^nd lifetime start.  The gowans trainee has been successful at many levels, not the least of which was winning the 2013 version of today’s race, defeating bigtime marathoner IMPACTA and the tough mare KISS THE MOON.  TOSH did not get a chance to defend his BB title last season, as he amazingly pursued his parallel grass career, to the tune of a win in the G1 Coronation Pilsner (12F turf).  This led to a berth in the BB Turf, which didn’t turn out so well, so it’s back to Plan A for 2015.  Gowans says “he is quite simply the best horse I’ve ever had.”  “I ran him in the Sand Castle earlier this year, and he didn’t get embarrassed.  After an easy Grade 3 win, I thought he was back on track (amazingly with already 25+ starts at that point). But he flopped in the Arkansas race. Knowing I wanted to get in to this race, I knew he needed points. So, I ran him back on 3 weeks against a pretty easy field and he won. He was a little flat again in the race in Kentucky. The easy (really easy this time) hot race prep has worked for me in big races before.” You can’t get much easier than a 56 speed figure (notice how I haven’t mentioned speeds or times in this article yet?), so he should be fresh and sharp.  The old boy seems to have some run left in him, but the sands in the hourglass are not on his side.  As they say, Father Time is still undefeated. “With 31 starts, this will probably be his last start. I’m not really going in with any expectations. This race was won with a 109 last year, so who knows what he could do if he has one last effort in him.”  And that is why we take a shot!

PP # 10  IDEAL VIEW (Ghostzapper o/o STILETTOS, by A.P. Indy x Sadler’s Wells)  has been good for a while. Heretofore unheralded trainer Dahmamas took a patient stance with the filly who appeared to break down in a 3yo maiden race last June.  Three months off made her a different beast, reeling off 4 straight wins while skipping conditions,  eventually conquering stakes company and an impressive 7 length win at the game’s longest distance.  That was enough to convince dahmamas to try Graded company, and she delivered with a late-running 2^nd to front-running LOCO COLONY in the G1 Little Rock Stayer.  Her cutback to 12F was an off the charts victory in a G2, and she prepped for this with another easy 16F jaunt in a listed stake.  Everything seems to be going right for this one, and despite being #5 in the ladies ranks, she snuck into the field with 96 points.  That might be bad news for the rest of the bunch because she’s been electric this season and nearly unbeaten – LOCO COLONY had no pressure in their only matchup.  This is definitely one to keep your eye on in late stretch, and with 15 starts lifetime, there’s a good chance she’ll be back next year as well.

 

PP # 12  FACTOR X (The Factor o/o XTRA BEEP BEEP, by Unbridled’s Song x Seeking The Gold) is the last to make the cut but definitely not the least likely winner in the bunch, for many reasons.  First, you have this guy named lightning99 aka deeprock aka Lou aka this freakin’ guy turns junk into marathon gold so often, he’s been awarded an honorary doctorate in metallurgic alchemy.  This son of a dam who won all of one race and $9,000 was getting his head bashed in for 20k claimers last summer as a 3yo.  The rock nabs him, gives him 4 months on the farm or hyperbaric chamber hotel or whatever he does, the horse comes out running off in deep stretch like DARK MANDU.  32 furlongs would be too short for this horse, let alone 14, and he is by THE FACTOR (War Front x Miswaki x Icecapade x Bold Forbes).  I can’t figure it out, but Lou sure can, so he deserves to be here on the merit of his late-running 2^nd in the Monster Mash (LITTLE COLUMN B) at 28-1.  We’ve seen this movie before… cheap horse with crackpot trainer enters Breeder’s Bowl race, people smirk, horse vastly exceeds expectations while other trainers extract excreta from trousers.  Lather, rinse, and repeat.  Lou’s only comment was ”be nice to my claimer… he could be a problem for the favorites”.  I agree.  And if I were you facing this field of tough-minded trainers, I’d find an undisclosed location to watch the race, in case it goes too well, if you know what I mean.

 

Good luck to everyone, I hope you enjoyed my version of a preview.  Thanks for your sportsmanship and a thoroughly intriguing renewal of my favorite Breeder’s Bowl contest, the Dirt Marathon.