Portugal juvenile colts aim for ‘Tears’

Two-year-olds are a speculative venture.  You breed, you train, you race, but you never know what you got until…well, until they’re three.  The juveniles are unpredictable, and still trying to establish a place in the grand scheme of the Sim world.  Portugal contributes a piece to this puzzle in the featured Saturday event, the $55,000 Scale Glen Bonanza.  A compact field of six is featured for this five-and-a-half furlong dash, with a wide range of bloodlines and racing experience.

Long For Gold has the rail for tcity, and he’s on the short end of the experience chain, with just a maiden win in his debut to his credit.  It’s interesting to note this son of Langfuhr from a Seeking The Gold mare wired the field in that debut, and was never seriously challenged in China; this win netted him a respectable speed figure of 75.  There is no shortage of early speed in this race, but this race does have more experienced colts; it will be interesting to see how this one reacts to a more hotly challenged pace scenario.

Doctor Speights, from irishtown, has an interesting angle to consider.  This son of Pleasantly Perfect from a Forty Niner mare had two meandering efforts on the grass to start his career, but exploded when he tried dirt in Athens last out, earning an 80 for that maiden win.  Turf racing is very often used to condition dirt horses who need a bit of a spark, but it’s a bit too early to tell whether this one is as good or improved as his speed figure suggests.  This race should explain a lot about this colt, and he’ll likely sit out of the fray on the lead; he’s bred for much longer distances, so wait and see what happens in the fall here.

Super Hype, for vampire1, has the breeding his name suggests (Storm Cat out of a Woodman mare), but in his early experiments with turf, his name is more ironic than factual.   Over five grass races, he owns two wins, but his speed figures are middling (all in the 60s).  He tries dirt for the first time here, and it’s a bit of a trap for the handicapper; should you play his dirt debut and believe that he’ll run up to his name and pedigree, or skip it because the dirt makes him an “X” factor in a race loaded with speed and experience?  He may be ready to pop against these, or it may take a race to get acclimated.  With two wins, he has ability, but whether it translates remains to be seen. 

Tears Of Autumn(IRE) is 7-5 for olympiafie, and is the reason to be non-commital about Doctor Speights and Super Hype.  This son of Peintre Celebre from a Lemon Drop Kid mare is a stakes-winner, two-for-four lifetime, with all his speed figures in the 80s, which hints that he was born to run at a certain lofty level.  He’s versatile, with a closing kick and early speed as weapons to choose from, and seems to love this distance, with both wins coming at five-and-a-half furlongs.  And his jockey is a circuit leader on a tear.  If he opts to sit back today and wait for the speed to burn up, he may be a tough one to collar.

Absolute Chaos is by far the most experienced starter, with seven races (and three wins) under his belt for nagsrus2.  This son of Absolute Harmony from a Lyphard’s Wish(FR) mare has turf experience, but unlike the others, he seems to prefer grass at this stage.  All his victories were in allowance company on the grass, and the speed figures for his dirt races don’t leap off the page one way or another.  His stakes experience was a fading fourth in France, and recent form has him taking a step back.  He should be up close early, but whether he can stay on dirt against more polished runners is an open question to consider long and hard before wagering.

Rouge Prospect has the outside post here, for the barn of smokester1, and he has a late-running style that came to life in his maiden win in the infamous muck of Italy.  While he’s only managed a second in allowance company since, his numbers have improved since the muddy race, and this son of Sasha’s Prospect out of a Croco Rouge(IRE) mare should have sufficient motivation on the front end to make his move at the top of the stretch.  Grass racing might be his stock in trade down the line, but as for right here, this developing colt might play a role in how it turns out at the wire.

My selections:

1. Tears Of Autumn
2. Long For Gold
3. Super Hype

Good luck, and happy racing!