Juvenile Behavior
Ninth up for the day is the Juvenile, a pivotal stepping stone for year-end honors and showcase for the stars of tomorrow (or not — read Pazjazz’s superb articles for more on that). Always an unpredictable free-for-all, this year’s race is no e
Running from the inside post will be Pedroza’s colt, tenth-ranked Dixieland Wells. A veteran of five previous graded races, nerves will not be a problem for this son of Dixieland Band. He is coming off two second-place finishes, the latest by the narrowest of margins to Degoldenstorm in the Darling Squash Futurity. He improved hugely in that race, so one has to wonder if he might bounce, but he has had a nice six-week rest since then. The colt has a pretty serious case of seconditis, with four seconds in seven starts, including seconds in both previous route attempts. He’ll be one of several trying to stay back and out of early trouble. So far, his late kick has rarely been enough and with a fairly dismal jockey aboard I don’t expect a win out of him this week. But that doesn’t mean he won’t be a factor in the race. Will he get up for second once again? We’ll know tomorrow.
Next door, trying to psych out his rivals, will be the Freud son Smooth as Butter, representing Springtime stable. The colt is now two-for-two in routes with victories in an allowance and the Grade II End of the Line Futurity. It took this colt four tries to break his maiden, but he hasn’t looked back since. This will be his first race against the best of his crop, but he has looked awesome in his last two and has certainly earned his ticket. His speed figure of 94 last time out ties with the highest numbers in this field. He is clearly improving with distance and is one to watch carefully both this weekend and into next year. Some of my best long-haul horses had a hard time breaking their maidens, so I’ll be very interested to see how this guy does as he goes even longer. This race will be a step up for him in terms of the competition, and we will learn a lot about him. Regardless, I think he has a truly exciting career in the works.
Sitting in the third position is Tenpin4’s Degoldenstorm, one of the many horses going off at 8/1. The eighth-ranked son of Dehere is looking awfully good with three straight wins under his belt. His trainer wryly comments that “I had another two year old I was watching (Hard Rock Gold) to see how good he was getting and this one snuck right up on me.” Degoldenstorm has been moving steadily up in class and his speed figures have also gained steadily to keep up with the competition. His last victory was the Grade II Darling Squash, where he nosed out Dixieland Wells and defeated Apache Sunrise. His trainer notes that the extra 1/16 may give his colt a bit of trouble, but is optimistic that he will have the guts to hang in there for a strong finish. The expert guidance of jockey J Stivers (who has a 26% strike rate) can only help. Watch for this stalker to sneak up on the leaders as effectively as he snuck up in his trainer’s estimation.
Larry Boy is Inzy’s first BB entry, and he made it by the skin of his teeth as the 14th-ranked colt. Going off at 12/1, he’s one of the longer shots in the field, but his trainer has high hopes for him. “Larry Boy has made ground in every race its run in so far,has a very strong kick midway down the stretch. Runs a lot like the 1983 Melbourne cup winner Kiwi, as Larry boy tends to be at or near the tail of the field until the finish line is in sight.Hopefully Larry boy can emulate Kiwis Famous finish this weekend.” That late kick may help Larry stay clear of traffic, as many of his peers attempt to head to the front. Larry has been improving steadily, including his last outing and first graded stakes, the Grade 1 Sparkling Wine. In that race, he faced four other conteders in today’s BB Juvie, and finished a competitive third. Much will depend on if he can continue to improve, but he has proved his mettle by running well against several of the best who will be here today. Larry Boy is very much a worthy contender.
Next up is “poor” Wild Streets, as trainer Bucksplash calls her hard-knocking colt. He’s been off for 8 weeks and Bucksplash comments that he “almost flat-out missed the race–somehow, I keep forgetting he exists!” I wonder if this will give the son of Freud long-term mommy issues. But Bucksplash makes up for her near-neglect by adding that “the kid’s barely put a foot wrong,” winning three of his six races (including both routes). He has surprised his trainer with a late-running win in an overnight stakes, followed by a narrow win in the G2 Camel Juvenile. Those last two were his first route attempts and he has perked up enormously for them. This will be a major test for the little guy, who has never faced any of these horses before. He’ll need to punch up his speed figures some and run his heart out, “but he’s a tough little horse, he’s been training well, and he earned the start–and he’s fooled me twice already, so I’d just as soon not go for three.” Don’t be too shocked if this 20/1 shot fools the bettors, too.
Corzacan is fielding two runners here, including second-ranked Insky Winsky Spida. I almost wish we had an off track, so I could say “down came the rain and washed the Spida out,” but it wasn’t meant to be. The lightly-raced son of Stravinsky has won three of four starts, including both route attempts. He hadn’t accomplished all that much yet when his trainer “chucked him in the deep end” for Vermont’s Grade I Happy Labor Day, where he defeated a tough crowd including Juvenile contenders Miss Me Yet and Why Marry. Needless to say, his ticket here was duly punched. Because he came back groggy from that big effort, his trainer decided to rest him for the Juvenile. His trainer knows that the resulting nine-week break could leave the colt unfit, but he has training well and seems eager to run. The colt still has questions to answer after only four starts, but his trainer notes that this also gives him “the most scope for improvement.” He won’t need a ton of it if that race in Vermont was no fluke. Star jockey D Guivens has been instructed to go to the front and take no prisoners. The trainer wryly commented that Plan B for the jockey is to “fling his arms & legs at every other runner that looms up beside him bar [stablemate] Adhesive.”
Rio Secco will be one of five horses representing the Texasace empire this weekend, and his only starter in the Juvie. While not a household name like stablemate Horseshoe Bay, the ninth-ranked juvenile colt has racked up a nice record in only four starts. The son of Sky Mesa has two wins and two places, including a competitive second to third-ranked Apache Sunrise in the Grade I Kentucky Horsemen Juvenile. That was the colt’s lone graded start so far. He’s a tricky horse to evaluate, having scored a second in a Grade I, but barely eking out a win in a mid-sized allowance field last time out. He’s a versatile runner, with good runs from both the lead and off the pace and will be guided by the terrific rider P Harzheim. His versatility will suit him well in this unpredictable race. He has some questions to answer about whether he can consistently stand up to the big boys, but he’s a speedy colt who shouldn’t be underestimated. We’ll know a lot more about him after this weekend.
Adhesive, Spida’s stablemate from the Thebaker2 stable, will be breaking out of the eight hole. His trainer says that his name came about because “I was hoping that the horse would be able to stick around & stick on & so far so good.” I freely admit that I adore his sire, Cozzene, who has been very good to me, so I like this colt quite a bit. As you might expect, he has perked up once he tried two turns and has won both route attempts comfortably. The second of these was the Grade II North Fork, which he won by two. The bad news is that he has only faced the other contenders here in sprints, where he was respectable, but not brilliant. As a result, we don’t know what he can do against the best as he stretches out to more comfortable distances. According to his trainer, Adhesive has been aiming for this race since his second start. “I am just hoping I did not over tax him getting to the race.” D Hogin has been instructed to stay a few lengths back before letting the horse run in the last half mile. I suspect this horse has a good future ahead of him and if his trend of improvement continues he’ll be dangerous this weekend as well.
Awesome Force, fielded by the Camry stable, is looking to prove that he is an awesome horse. Currently ranked twelfth, this Awesome Again colt has racked up three wins and two places in six starts. He has finished first and second in his two graded appearances, but has yet to face any of the other youngsters in this field. He is well-rested with seven weeks off and his trainer says that “he more distance this horse gets, the better he will be.” He continues that “he has been a rocket in the lane,” but “my only concern is if there will be enough speed in the race” with only a couple of pure speedballs in the mix. The colt has been improving steadily and with his explosive win in the Cryogenics last time out, he posted one of the higher speed figures in the field. He should benefit from stretching out a bit more this weekend and should get a good ride out of R Harzheim.
And who’s the man everyone’s shooting for? Easy – it’s number-one ranked Literary God, whose trainer, Taffy, hopes he’ll become a god at the track as well. The Roman Ruler colt has won five of his seven starts, facing several of this weekend’s competitiors when he blew the doors off the Grade I Sparkling Wine last time out. He entered that race as a test of whether he could take on the best, and he passed with flying colors. He improved quite a bit in that race, his first route, though he also brought home a win in the Grade II Dell Futurity at seven furlongs. So, he likes the distance and has beat several of his competitors already. He’s versatile and can run at the front or stalk. He’s being ridden by 26% winner T Small. What’s not to like? Not a darn thing, except that there are lots of other colts here who could take this race just as well. But I really liked how he took off in his first route; it showed a lot of grit, especially given that the competition was tough. He is a stellar colt with a bright future ahead of him.
Bucksplash is also fielding Miss Me Yet, giving her multiple BB starters for the first time. The son of Golden Missile is a successful experiment in inbreeding to both Slew and Cure the Blues. The “precocious” colt scored a strong second in the Grade II High Rollers, where he faced several of the horses who will be here today. But Bucksplash says he truly “earned his ticket” in Vermont’s Happy Labor Day Grade I, running a “nice professional race” as he was just nosed out for the win by second-ranked Insky Winsky Spida. The trainer adds that he disappointed last time out in the Sparkling Wine G1, but “nothing I ran that week did much of anything, so I’m hoping there was just something in the water that week.” Miss is an interesting horse, who has just barely missed winning in two strong graded fields, but he still has just that maiden win to his name. I also think his speed figures will need to pick up for this one. But you can’t ignore how close he has come to some of the best here. He has proved himself worthy and while I don’t really expect him to win, he may yet again find himself very, very close.
Graywolf presents for consideration the Medallist son Why Marry. Why Marry is the most experienced colt in the field, with nine prior starts, five of them graded races. He’s a good news/bad news kind of horse. The good news is that he has never been further than four lengths behind the winner in a graded race. He also finished a strong second in the Grade I Horsehead Juvenile, finishing ahead of Miss Me Yet and Adhesive. His numbers have generally improved from race to race. Moreover he has a terrific jockey aboard. The bad news is that he has never won above the allowance level and he has finished well off the board in several graded attempts. I’d be more excited if he had really exploded as he stretched out, but he is continuing to show up with solid, workmanlike performances. He’s had enough races by now that I don’t expect any major surprises from him – he’s shown repeatedly what he can do at this level – which is to run well, but probably not well enough to win. He has very much earned his ticket and I won’t be a bit surprised if he earned a paycheck, but I just don’t see him as a likely winner.
It wouldn’t be a big sim race without a superstables contender. Here, they present Psychotic Gold from the Super12stable. Topicount contacted me as the Superstables representative to give me the scoop on this talented colt. He is one of two Freud colts in the field and was bred because Afc bought into a real Freud horse. He has never been off the board in six starts, evenly split between wins, places and shows. The late-flying colt first tried graded company in the Buckeye Juvenile, where he finished a competitive third. In his next race, he was a fast-closing second in the Sparkling Wine, beating out three other horses in this field and losing only to Literary God. His numbers are improving with each outing and Topicount says “I’m tickled to death that we landed” jockey F Gossett. His trainers are most concerned by the distance this weekend: “I honestly think he’s going to ultimately be more of a 9-10 furlong horse, so while I expect him to be flying late, I’m not sure that 1 1/16 miles is going to be enough ground for him to get there first.” If this isn’t his week, watch this guy closely going into next year.
Last but not least is third-ranked Apache Sunrise. Poorman is bringing the son of Harlan’s Holiday off a disappointing run in the Grade II Darling Squash eight weeks ago, hoping a rested and revived colt could replicate his brilliant win in the Grade I Kentucky Horsemen Juvenile, where he defeated Rio Secco by almost two lengths. Apache has been on the board in six of seven starts, the lone exception being his last race. He’s a bit of an enigma – the Kentucky Horseman was so much faster than his other races, that one has to wonder if it was a fluke. On the other hand, maybe his lone off-the-board finish was the fluke. Like many of the colts here, this race will tell us a lot about him. He prefers to be near the leaders and it looks like he got stuck further back than he liked in the Squash, or maybe he just never fired in that race. He’s clearly capable of a big race, he wouldn’t be a Grade I winner if he weren’t. Now we’ll get to see what’s more typical of him – the explosive speed he showed in Kentucky, or the flop in the Squash. He should receive solid guidance from P Munoz, who hopefully will be able to keep him in a comfortable position.
Normally in these big races, I try to say something positive about every horse. Sometimes I have to try very, very hard to find something. Not the case in this race, which has a truly stellar field. I’ll look forward to watching the race and following the careers of these up-and-comers.