Suicidal Pace in the Harry Carey

A firm turf course promises to greet this year’s field in the seventh running of the Grade III Harry Carey Memorial for three year olds and up going a mile.  Harry Carey was a silent film actor who starred in many westerns.  Many in Illinois are aware there was another famous person named Harry Caray.  This race is not about him.

Highlights of past Harry Careys include a win by likely Hall of Famer Daneye in 2002, and back-to-back wins by stakes record holder Dom Tendencies.  Those two and Ardal all won this as three year olds. It is clearly late enough in the year that three year olds are no longer at a disadvantage.

The preferred running style has clearly been to run on or just off the lead.  The only exception was last year when a wet turf course favored the late running Twice Told Tale.  The race has not been kind to longshots.  Five of the six winners have been the first or second choice of the shrewd Illinois bettors.

Keep all that in mind as you consider the field:

1. Novice trainer Rebel65 starts with the common challenge for all new stables: a barn full of equine ailments and limitations.  They got a third placing with their first try with Windora (Frisky Dan x Doulab) and appear to be overly optimistic with this seven year old who is past his prime.  All of Windora’s successes have come in dirt sprints, and he may still be competitive in claimers there.  Barn had a second choice with this one – a listed stakes that came up with a small field.  Too bad this race did not fill.  Everyone wishes good luck to this new owner.  98-1.

2. Looking to overcome the early speed bias of this race, crack trainer Correction (28%) brings one that can surely do it.  Gold Inferno (Seeking the Gold x Nureyev) has two Grade II wins in his last three starts and has never been sharper.  Seldom do you see one close as furiously as this one three weeks ago in the Utah Breeders Bowl Mile.  A deserving favorite.  Barn makes its 1,000^th start this weekend and is on pace to earn 2,000 breeding points this year.  Jockey leads the rider standings by a scant five wins.  4-1.

3. Awesom O (Awesome Again x Danehill) has three wins in five turf routes against three year olds and tries graded company for the first time.  Speedster has been fading after early duels for trainer Lopo87 (18%), and there will be plenty gunning for the early lead here.  Took a real step up in speed figures last time to a number that figures to be competitive here.  Barring a bounce, this longshot can get a piece of this.  17-1.

4. Baracuda Waltz (Not Impossible x Woodman) is one for 13 this year and has finished in the back half of allowance fields in his last two.  There was a seven week gap between those races, so we assume Caar (8%) thought he needed a freshening and then used the last race as a prep for today.  He’s never run a speed figure over 95.  That doesn’t bode well.  31-1.

5. Miter Saw (Not for Love x Seattle Slew) saw a mite better last time against some of the best three year olds in the Jockey Club Classic, including To Die For, where he ran a respectable fourth for trainer BobtheHat (10%).  This field has only one three year old rated in the top twenty (To Die For, whom he beat) and only one older rated in the top fifty.  He’s got five wins in nine turf routes.  Will be trying to close late.  12-1.

6. Government Listing (Smart Strike x Dixieland Band) has gotten off to sizeable leads in each of his last three turf miles, but the Tegan (12%) trained three year old has been fading late.  Today he figures to be pressed for that lead, so it’s hard to optimistic that he’ll make all eight furlongs.  On the other hand, he’s been going against better last two outings.  13-1

7. If the race history favors early speed, and the early speed looks suspect, how about one that can sit just off the pace?  Sin Dance (Sinndar x Nashwan) is a lightly raced four year old from the Iant8 (15%) barn.  He has a perfect four for four record in turf miles, a running style that makes all kind of sense here, and steps up in class only to find a graded field with nine runners rated 140^th or worse.  Serious challenger.  15-1.

8. Yowza (Pine Bluff x A.P. Indy), from the crafty 8BallFarms (16%) stable, is another who can sit just behind the early leaders and pick up the pieces if the pace falls apart.  He’s a consistent runner with nine good races in eleven turf routes.  Would not be a surprise.  8-1.

9. Champ’s Bro (El Prado x Affirmed) has seven win in ten turf routes for high percentage trainer Hoshaba (25%).  He’s an early runner who doesn’t back down from a challenge.  Picked up his first stakes win last time in a listed affair, and this barn doesn’t enter races it doesn’t think it can win.  Step up in class looks more then manageable.  5-1.

10. GOP Sweep (Forestry x Blushing John) wired an accomplished field in his stakes debut last time and steps up to try graded stakes here for trainer ETS4 (10%).  One more that adds to the early speed and one more that doesn’t back down from a challenge for that lead.  Barn has been very cautious with him, giving him plenty of time off between races.  There is no truth to the rumor that he is changing his name to GOP’s Weep after November 7^th.   8-1.

11. Largely due to his wire to wire win in a Grade I stakes three months ago, To Die For (Theatrical x Seeking the Gold) advanced to be the number eleven ranked three year old.  The Zewango2 (18%) trainee has been having trouble maintaining his early pace recently, finishing out of the money in his last two.  The furious early pace that seems likely here will not be kind to him.  He has finished behind Miter Saw and Government Listing in his last two starts.  He does pick up the services of a very talented jockey, and he’s been rested for five weeks.  We’ll see if that helps.  11-1.

12. Trainer Pompeya (26%) was able to wait until Thursday afternoon to sign up K’s Okkasion (Seeking the Gold x Nijinsky II) for this race.  As so often happens, the stable may have found a placement it can win.  This one finished ahead of a lot of graded winners last time when he finished third in the Posh Purse Stakes.  He’s a closer in a race full of early speed, yet he does not fall too far behind.  A repeat of his last performance looks good enough here.  9-2.

13. Merry Mex (Deputy Minister x Gone West) never threatened K’s Okkasion, much less the winner, in the Posh Purse.  This GradeOne (22%) trained colt has an interesting pattern of alternating races where he finishes in the money and then out of the money.  The pattern says this race is in the money.  Jockey won this race last year.  7-1.

Morning Line: 2-12-9-13

Timmn’s Picks: 2-8-12-7