PLUM CAP NOT CLEAR CUT

China hosts the Plum Cap Bonanza this week a 7.5 furlong race on the dirt for females 3yo and up. A nice field has assembled so let’s try to sort them out.

1 – KEWELL 4/1 – Has gone agonisingly close at his last 3 stakes appearances and deserves a win. May be better suited over a shorter trip but is right in this. Ultra consistent.

2 – MOON OF CAIRO 9/2 – Won superbly in a similar race 3 runs back before 2 uncharacteristic failures. Was very consistent in this form of race prior to that. She is up to the task if she finds her old form. Take on trust.

3 – DANZIG’S DREAM 7/1 – A natural front runner who has all but been hanging on in longer journeys. This looks more her type of trip and she will give them something to catch. She may represent value at the quote.

4 – WISE UP 6/1 – A lightly raced 4yo relatively new to the stakes caper. A winner of 5 from 9 this girl will also try and run them ragged out in front or near to it. Could figure in the finish if she gains a soft lead.

5 – SUICUNE 3/1 – Very consistent  and this is her favourite distance or close to it. Only has to reproduce her SP# of 104 which she ran in winning over 7 furlongs recently in similar company. 3/1 isn’t very generous in such a close field but she is a great chance none the less.

6 – BALLACK’S LURE 7/2 – Has mainly been mixing it in allowance company with good results over this distance. Just missed out last time over 7 furlongs and can not be left out here. Has won or ran a place in 23 of her 34 starts.

7 – SENOR SIR 28/1 – This is the only horse without some kind of genuine hope. A 3yo filly who has her share of ability but looks out of her depth in this one. Couldn’t win a claim 2 starts back and most claimers would have trouble keeping this lot in sight. Not here.

8 – TUBULAR(BRZ) 6/1 – A noted short courser who steps up in distance here. Has been giving the impression that she’ll revel in it. The fact that she come from behind may suit with so many front runners running. A big danger late on the scene.

So close with seven genuine chances. I’ll go 5 – 8 – 6 but I could get it horribly wrong!

Good luck all and good punting.

Butcha