The Fat Nation Stakes

The 2yo’s are the feature on another strong Washington card this week and while the main spotlight will be on the grade II The Big Hill Stakes on the main track we also have 6 youngsters going a mile on the grass in The Fat Nation Stakes. It what looks to be a fairly inexperienced field it is an open betting race with 5 of the 6 runners under double figures. Let’s have a closer look at the breeding and form of these budding stars.

1 – SOLARUM (IRE) (arco) – First starter by Spectrum (IRE) out of an In The Wings (GB) mare. Extremely big task for his race day debut trying stakes company over the gruelling Washington mile while Spectrum (IRE) has been disappointing in the Sim to date from limited opportunities only producing 1 stakes winner in the past 5 years.  Could surprise and sneak a place in a small field but he would be better suited in maiden company.

2 – LEMONS FOREVER (tsukino) – Strong looking colt by Lemon Drop Kid out of Summer Sunshine.  The dam Summer Sunshine was only a moderate performer on the track winning 5 races and $71 000 in stakes but she was quite well bred being by Summer Squall.  Lemons Forever showed a liking for the grass breaking his maiden at his second attempt over 5 furlongs.  He then stepped up to stakes level last time out with an encouraging 4^th over 7.5 furlongs.  He has closed nicely in his races to date and it looks like the mile will be right up his alley.  Needs to step up a notch to take the win but with the extra distance of today’s race that would not be unexpected.

3 – TREPIDATION (strikegold) – Today’s second favourite has a very turfy pedigree being by Trempolino out of the mare Depth of Troy (IRE). Depth of Troy had an undistinguished racing career but she is very well bred being by Barathea (IRE) out of a Shirley Heights (GB) mare and she has started her breeding career strongly with this her first foal.  Trepidation is one of the more experienced runners in today’s race with this his 6th race start and the good record of 2 wins and a place from 4 attempts on the grass.  He is a closer that relished the extra ground last time over the mile while recording his career high speed figure of 83.  A repeat of that performance this week will see him fighting out the finish. 

4 – HOTFEET KILL BILL (hotfeet) – Scratch bred colt by relatively unknown sire French Envoy out of a Cigar City mare.  All his 4 races to date have been on the turf over 8 furlongs and he has the solid record of a win and 2 placings.  He stepped out in stakes company last time out and acquitted himself well with a creditable 4^th.  Biggest concern is the lack of improvement he has been showing in his races.  He started his career strongly with speed numbers in the 70’s but he hasn’t been able to take the next step and improve as the year has progressed.  His biggest advantage is his speed, there aren’t a lot of front runners in the race and his best chance would be to take his normal front running position and then try to hang on down the stretch.   

5 – DOWSE (mecke) – The 6^th offspring of racemare More Love by the Danzig sire Green Desert.  Beautifully bred colt that has yet to miss a pay cheque on the turf and who broke his maiden last time out in slashing fashion over 8 furlongs.  Has relished the step up to a mile and looks like he will appreciate it even further as a 3yo.  A colt on the way up, his biggest problem will be the lack of speed in the race to set up for his big finish.  Doesn’t have the greatest jockey engaged for today’s race so he may just come up a little short but definitely one to follow as the race distances get longer.

6 – MR TIMERS (GB) (wyndaway) – Today’s 2^nd first starter by Mtoto (GB) out of a Kendor (FR) mare.  Like Solarum he faces a massive task racing in stakes company on debut and it would be a surprise to see him fight out the finish.  Mtoto (GB) has only 4 2yo’s to race this year with none of them yet to break their maiden but he does have 6 stakes winners overall in the 5 years he has been at stud in the sim.  A big task lies ahead of the field’s outsider but in a small stakes race that is void of any superstars it is possible for him to play some part.

Only a small field for today’s feature but as is always the case with 2yo’s, plenty of interest.  I like Trepidation to break through for his maiden stakes victory today.  He really enjoyed the step up to 8 furlongs last time out and I like that he will be sitting just on or behind the pace in a race that might be run at a muddling pace.  Dowse looks like a colt on the way up and he is the strongest finisher in the race.  Might just run out of room in the stretch but he will be coming at them hard.  I like Hotfeet Kill Bill to fill the place.  He is the clear leader in the race and should have little pressure up front.

Good luck to all trainers.