Six Run The Marathon For The GII Longdale Cup

An Exciting 2015 Edition of the Longdale Cup

Surrey-ENG (SUR) | Saturday, August 22, 2015 | 2:10 PM EST
Grade II | $375000 | 16 Furlongs | Firm Turf | Three Year Olds and Upwards

   1    BELLO GALLICO has been very inconsistent in his career. After three lackluster races in the beginning, he finally won in a maiden claimer (60k). He then won a few more claimers, bringing the price up each time along with the condition. After shining in three allowances in a row, the roan DALAKHANI horse raced hard for third in the G1 Japanese Saint Legend. His next win came after assorted stakes and graded stakes in an allowance nw5l tightener. He then made a spectacular move in the Ebro Turf Stayer Stakes. He’s run into a dry-spell since, with the best being a third in last year’s Kergolay G2. He was a non-factor in the Japan Classic G1 and was fifth in a listed stake, followed by a place in a nw1n allowance. His last race was the Ebro Turf Stayer, the race in which he got his only stakes win, last year. In this year’s edition he was fourth by five lengths. The crowd overbet him to 5-2 but his form appears to be declining. I can see a third place finish, at best. He needs a good workout for Megablaze.

|  2  | F. ROBERT KIRBY is like a license to print money. He’s won eleven out of his last twelve races, all allowances of $30000-$67500, not only on turf, but dirt as well. There was a long road to his maiden win, after eight races he finally broke it, with a 78 speed figure. Ever since, he hasn’t finished out of the top two. Despite his seasoned career, the four year old son of RAVEN’S PASS never ran in a stakes race. After a five length win, Desertrats finally gave him the green light, and he took the exit to G1 street. This field isn’t the strongest (or largest) I’ve ever seen, and I can see him placing in this one. Taking it to DARK MANDU is another thing, but this horse is loaded with talent, and I’d consider him for your pick four.

    3    TETE ORVAR had a great record of allowance wins, and was in the same state of F. ROBERT KIRBY until his G1 debut in the Longchamp Marathon. He failed hard, finishing seventh by nineteen lengths. He then raced in six listed stakes in a row, and his best placing was a fourth, by over sixteen lengths. His most recent try was the Lock Edison Turf Stayer. The HIGH CHAPARRAL colt made a small move but only managed sixth, by sixteen lengths. His most recent speed figure was a ninety, which isn’t good enough for this company. This Sabbath7 horse just isn’t of the G1 caliber, I’m sorry to say, and looks like a non-factor. He’s 9-1 but I won’t play.

   4    DARK MANDU is the obvious favourite of this race. He started off his career with a fourteen length win and a 51 speed rating at the 10.5 furlong distance. The sim (if I may break the fourth wall for a moment), made him 25-1 because of the speed figure, and the MOUNTAIN HIGH colt got stepping, and won by seven with a 95 speed figure at sixteen furlongs. Amazingly, Wyndaway put him in the Equinics (best horse I ever owned) G1 and was 179-1! Again, he shocked and placed to I BEN SCAMMED. The Stayer’s Dash G2 was his next, and he ran against 68-1 to place once more. As the bookies continued to insult, the horse that could kept doing well. He was 45-1 in the Spring Cup G1, and got it done, winning by a neck. Next he faced the Gold Glass G1, and finished third among tough company. He was too good for the Kergolay G2 and the Irish Saint Legend G2, winning both by sizable margins. Fast-forward three starts in three unsuccessful G1s, and we get the Spring Cup. There he received the lowest odds of his career- 6-1 -and won by a head. He put in a great effort in the Gold Glass 2015 most recently, and was third by over two. This is a great horse, and doesn’t appear to be declining in any way. 2-1 is a gift, and is worth a huge bet. A possible pick four single, despite my earlier statement.

   5     CAPE ASSASSIN is the best challenger to DARK MANDU. He was claimed for $35000 from the now-regretful Lgbost in an early race. On his eleventh start, he broke his maiden at fourteen furlongs with a sigh of relief from new owner Fredstable. He picked up steam from there, winning four of six allowances in a row before The Barberville G3. He stepped again, to the Second Henry G2, and took it in stride, winning by a length once more. After a place in the Gold Glass G1, he had a long drought, with his best finish in that five race stretch was a third in the Barberville G3 2015. Not to worry, his most recent showing proved he’s back on track. The Greatwood Cup was a four length success. I’m not entirely confident, as that could have been a singular moment of greatness, but it still looks good on form. He looks okay, but at 7-2, the son of CAPE BLANCO doesn’t offer much value.

  6   COWRA IRISH took quite a few thirds and fourths to break his maiden (five total), and won with a big 92 on the sixth try. His nw2l was a success, and was fourth in a listed stake to follow. He won his nw3l and then a listed stake. After a fourth in the World Weekly News 2000 G3 and a place in the Gordy Stakes G3, he finally nabbed a graded stakes- the Prix De Loot G3 by four lengths. He may have been injured in the Millwood Cup– he was thirty one lengths back and took two and a half months off before his 2015 debut. He was fourth followed by a second in two listed stakes, and he weakened in the Stayer’s Dash G2. He stepped down to the Barberville G3 and won that by two lengths, keeping on the  pace throughout. In his penultimate try, he failed, finishing fifth in the Second Henry G2 by twelve lengths after a very mild charge. Most recently, he made a minimal move, to finish fifth by sixteen in the Ale N Skittles Turf Stayer STK. Another I can’t bet due to recent form, and 9-2 isn’t enough for the son of DUKE OF MARMALADE.

My Selections

1-   4   DARK MANDU
2-   5   CAPE ASSASSIN
3- | 2 | F. ROBERT KIRBY

Longshot Play-   3  TETE ORVAR