Competitive Field of Eleven Come to Italy For The Premium Jockey Guild
A field of 11 will come to the post for Saturday’s feature race in Italy, the Grade III Premium Jockey Guild Stakes, a 9 furlong contest on a turf course expected to be firm. The horses by Post Position:
PP 1 – Sky Hill Dancer(IRE) (Danehill Dancer(IRE) x Theatrical(IRE) x Stradavinsky(IRE)) This hardworking five year old did something strange last time out: He ran triple figures for the first time in his career. The strange part was that it came in his 43rd career race! That certainly improved his odds for this race with the morning line handicapper, but it also suggests he may be looking at a big bounce. On the other hand, maybe trainer ccstables2 (4%) is training a VERY late-maturing horse? I’m thinking probably not.
PP 2 – Tete The Undead(AUS) (Testa Rossa(AUS) x Unbridled’s Song x Diesis(GB)) This 4 year old colt, bred and trained by the uber-experienced jacobsson (18% win with over 1381 starts), is an all-or-nothing type, capable of huge runs and huge disappointments, on any given race-day: Witness his last two outings, a very impressive Grade III wire-to-wire victory at a speed figure of 106 last time out, and a 5th place finish (of 8 starters), 15+ lengths behind the winner, with a speed figure of 93 the time before that (in a Grade I). Though this field will be exceptionally tough to wire, his best race puts this Tete alive and well at the finish.
PP 3 – Rise To KLP (Capote x Nureyev x Fappiano) This classy 5 year old hasn’t shown the top-end speed of a couple of the competitors in this race, but he’s considerably more consistent with his runs (winning 20 of his 43 career starts, and currently the 9th ranked older horse on grass at Classic distances), and if the pace is contested early (as it looks like it probably will be), this 5 year old star of the mccoy barn (21%) has the closing style that should set up perfectly for him. Definitely one for your exotics.
PP 4 – Mandor Utopia (Khalkevi(IRE) x Northern Baby x Varick) Talk about successful bargain-breds! This relatively lightly raced 4 year old prodigy is his sire’s top-earning offspring, his dam-sire’s top earning offspring, and his dam’s damsire’s top earning offspring (at 4 years old or less). He’s been in the money 11 of his 14 starts (8-2-1), and is working on a win streak of 3 in a row. All that said, I think that streak ends on Saturday. A closer who’s been beating up on ungraded stakes competition, his speed figures don’t seem to indicate he’s ready just yet to break through on his first ever Graded try. Trainer ruok (13%) has a good one here, but maybe not quite up to snuff with these. And he also seems to prefer a bit more ground as well.
PP 5 – Tete Novembre(IRE) (Noverre(IRE) x Sadler’s Wells x Blushing Groom(FR)) Trainer therion (19%) saddles another Tete horse, also a solid chance on his best race (as well as co-2nd choice in the betting). A solid triple digit speed figure bet, this Tete horse can also throw the occasional super-speed fig at you (as he did twice last year hitting 113). And if that wasn’t enough, this horse is also the stakes-record holder for this race (a time of 1:48, set last year). He likes the front early, and runs a real risk of getting into a speed duel early here, in which case his chances are compromised considerably. Still, hard to ignore the consistency, class, and form of late.
PP 6 – Unreasonable (Crafty Prospector x A.P. Indy x Formidable) Coming off of a very impressive win at a mile (109 speed fig) while stalking just off the shoulder of the leader the whole way, trainer monopoly (11%) certainly has to be encouraged by what he saw last time out. That said, it was in an owner-restricted allowance race, and it was also his career-best speed by some 7 points. That suggests at least the possibility of a big bounce, and combined with the step up in class this time, I’d have to wait to see another race like his last before betting with this company.
PP 7 – Causes Wood(IRE) (Giant’s Causeway(IRE) x Woodman x Tough Knight) Breeder/trainer ruby7 (18%) brings in the morning-line favorite to this race, and while it’s easy to see why he’s the favorite, he may also be vulnerable here. This hard-knocking horse has some very impressive credentials, not the least of which is his record, coming in with 26 of 31 lifetime starts in the money (14-8-4), leading to his #3 ranking in the turf classic division for older horses. He’s also a darn fast horse when he’s on his game, having already had 4 starts this year running 106 or better. All that said, his form is definitely off, coming off of two sub-par performances, including his last out when he finished 4th as the favorite in a Grade II. He’s coming back fresh after that one, being rested for 49 days, but his history says he’ll need a race to get back to his game. He’s been doing best this year at between 3-4 weeks (with one exception).
PP 8 – Colorado Force (Royal Academy x Danzig x Silver Hawk) This highfive (14%) charge is another that comes in off a nice win, but that was in open allowance company, and the speed figure was 94. Not sure this one has shown the class or speed figures to challenge here. Can stalk or close, but will be hard-pressed to get up in enough time with these guys.
PP 9 – Mannart Tornado (Storm Cat x A.P. Indy x Silver Deputy) This 4 year old is a very intriguing pick. 14 of 22 starts in the money (9-4-1), pretty classy (won a Grade I at this exact distance 4 races back, and has hit 109 and 113 on the speed scale in his last 5 races. But, like Tete The Undead, this ashworth (19%) colt can throw in a clunker when he doesn’t run his race. And his current form certainly isn’t good, having had 3 disappointing races in a row. But if he races back to what he’s capable of, there may be a monster race inside this guy, just waiting to get out. And at a decent price too.
PP 10 – Jenna’s Fleet (Afleet x Danehill x With Approval) Two allowance wins in a row is nice, as is a gaudy 11 of 13 lifetime starts in the money (5-3-3), but not really enough to recommend this 3 year old in a Grade III race, especially against his elders. Trainer jennahs (14%) has got the foundations of an excellent horse here, but I think his future isn’t quite here yet.
PP 11 – Savage Frontier (Esperero x Press Card x Boucher) Another very successful bargain-bred, this husky (10%) bred and trained horse has competed against this class of horse and done pretty well, but he seems to prefer another furlong or two to do his best racing, and he hasn’t been over 100 in speed figures in his last 8 races. Will need his best race to get a check here. Might be a bit tough for this hard-working guy.
My Picks
1) Tete Novembre – Stalks off a hot pace, passes in deep stretch.
2) Rise To KLP – Flying from mid-stretch, can’t get to the winner.
3) Tete Undead – Fights off a couple of rabbits, can’t quite sustain.