Working for a Coalmine

Led by Spare T(Ire), a full field will assemble on the Victoria turf course for Saturday’s Grade II Coalmine Mile Cup for three year old colts. 

In the six prior runnings, a pattern has emerged for the winner.  He tends to come from off the pace, but not far off.  The favorite has never won, but neither has any true longshot.  Every winner has been between the second and fifth choice in the betting and has been at odds as low as 7-2 and as high as 8-1.  By those criteria, bettors may want to give extra consideration to Conspirator, Rattleshirt, Fuzzy Rainbow, Fantastic Muse, and perhaps Very Silver.

Last year’s second place horse is the number one rated older turfer Seeking Sal.

Today’s field has two uncoupled pairs: Spare T and Conspirator from the Super Stables Pub Crawl and Rattleshirt from the Stormborn barns.

Here is a look at the field:

1. Very Silver (Silver Ghost x Secretariat) edges, just barely, the favorite in earnings per race.  Acote (10%) places him back at his favorite distance.  Silver’s three bad turf races came on his only three races beyond 8 1/2 furlongs.  He’ll be looking to repeat his 2000 Guineas race, where he bid and hung to finish third, beating Spare T, Drop the Bomb, and Pub Crawl.  If you can get past the fact that two of those bad races were his last two, and if you believe there is a big difference between a 8 ½ furlongs and 9 furlongs, he looks good here.  9-1.

2. Speaking of bad races, trainer Gramegnia (6%) decided to give Trabiccolo (Tale of the Cat x Wild Again) his stakes debut against older in the Grade I Maudlin Cup. He couldn’t use traffic problems as an excuse; he was seldom close to any other horse.  This is a weaker field, so he should be a bit closer, but he has not run a speed figure over 100 yet, and that does not bode well.  Trabiccolo was almost always in the money against allowance foes. 16-1.

3. Prado’s Crown (El Prado x Chief’s Crown) also had a good record against allowance foes, especially as a two year old.  This year has been less impressive, though he did win his last race.  The normally solid trainer Smokeglack (12%) drops $10,000 shipping him in from Nevada.  Not many in here want the lead, so he may be prominent early.  40-1.

4. Drop the Bomb (Beat Hollow x Lear Fan) was third of the four colts in here who ran in the Try the Wine Stakes.  MikeHusker (13%) gives him a seven week break from that effort.  Zero for seven in graded stakes, out of the money in his last four, and a lifetime top speed figure of 96 all count against his chances.  He is still rated in the top twenty, but needs a good performance here to stay there.  11-1.

5. Spare T(Ire) (Theatrical x Danehill) looked to be in good shape early in the Grade I Mospe, but faded in what ended up being a dull effort.  He was well out of it, but was still fast enough to maintain his streak of six straight triple digit speed figures.  Super28 (18%) apparently decided the race didn’t take much out of him and brings him back after just a two week break. He figures to be very sharp.  There is every reason to expect him back at the top of his game today.  Picks up perennial top jock.  4-1.

6. Dr. Devito (Rahy x Gone West) has six in the money finishes in his eight turf routes this year.  In his one eight furlong stakes race, the Farm304 (15%) trainee finished four behind Spare T and a length ahead of Drop the Bomb.  He’s come just shy of 100 speed figure a few times.  Like several in here, he would need to improve to win this, but the potential is surely there.  13-1.

7. The most impressive race of A.P. Sailorman’s (Tumblebrutus x A.P. Indy) career was his only graded stakes try, the GII Bean Sprout Turf Cup.  The Beisbol (18%) trainee got off to a huge lead, only to be run down in the lane by Very Silver.  There is a serious lack of early speed here, and Sailorman could get that lead again.  Yet another who lacks a 100+ speed figure on his resume, but the pace scenario gives him a real chance to figure in the exotics.  Obscure Sire has 59% winners in his abbreviated Sim career.  14-1.

8.  Fantastic Muse (Fantastic Light x Danzig) was a close seventh in the Breeders Bowl Turf Juvenile for the Borden (11%) barn last year.  Very sharp right now, coming off three straight wins in a couple allowances and a listed stakes.  The rise in class is nothing he can’t handle, given his two year old performances.  Jockey is a two time winner of this race.  8-1.

9. Inept Distortions (Distorted Humor x Storm Cat) was no match for Spare T and others in his last pair of graded tries.  This closer out of the NoCalBred (14%) barn surprised several in the GIII Kcusrocek Stakes a while back to finish second, but otherwise has not been competitive at this level.  Maybe just an excuse to leave Norway before winter sets in.  15-1.

10. Royal Woodbine (Green Desert x Seeking the Gold) was fourth of the four in here who ran the Try the Wine.  Like Drop the Bomb, Woodbine has been freshened since.  If he returns to the form he had in his mile turf races before the last, this Preakness (12%) trainee has a chance to be competitive here.   He had a nice second in the Sussex and a win over a mediocre Black Velvet field.  13-1.

11. Rattleshirt (More Than Ready x Storm Cat) comes out of the high percentage StormBorn2 (22%) stable.  Rattleshirt has three 100+ speed figures, including last time in his graded debut as a longshot winner of the Jockeyclub Classic.  This is a tougher field, but it’s hard to imagine a limit to the upside of this one, now four for five at the distance.  Jockey won this race two years ago.  7-1.

12. The Super Stables train the two shortest priced entrants in the field.  Joining Spare T from the Super28 stable is Conspirator (Lemon Drop Kid x Forty Niner) from Super10 (22%).  Conspirator is a perfect six for six in the money since switching to grass and was the winner of the GII SnowPhantom Appreciation Stakes last time in his only graded try.  He upset the number one rated sprinter in that one and now tries two turns for the first time on the lawn.  He has several tries at dirt routes, and it’s hard to discern any letdown as he moved from dirt sprints to routes, so he looks like one to fear here.  5-1.

13. Pub Crawl (El Prado x Giant’s Causeway) had five wins and a graded third in six races as a two year old.  It was the perfect time for StormBorn (24%) to sell.  Crawl has been winless in his eight starts this year.  Even a nine week vacation did not bring him back to form, so barn tries going dirt to turf in an effort to reawaken him to do more than crawl.  25-1.

14. Fuzzy Rainbow (Rainbow Quest x Storm Cat) is winless in five turf routes, but this Dundey7 (15%) trainee has come close, including his last two.  Got passed late by Spare T two back and finished third in a strong listed field last time.  He’s improved a lot at the distance since his twelfth in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Turf.  7-1.

Morning Line Selection: 5-12-11-14

Timmn’s picks: 12-11-1-5