Puppet Regime Short in Disappointing Canada Turf

Ontario this week gives us the race of champions, one of the major staying races of the year. The Canada Turf. This Grade 1, mile and a half turf event for older horses carries a total prize pool of one million dollars.

One of the sim’s older features, The Canada Turf has been conducted annually here at Ontario since 1999, albeit shortened to the mile in 2000, and the roll of honour proves that this is a race which belongs to champions. Whist a couple of winners may slot into the significantly above average category, history indicates that the much overused ‘champion’ is not out of place here. Three of the first four winners are not only household names, but Seattle Hit, Enough Knock and Stormy Prospector are all members of the inaugural class of Hall of Famers. Rain God, winner in 2004, must be odds on to eventually join them, while last years winner, Jupiter’s Moons, is one of the most highly respected horses still active in the sim. The past winners are:

1999 – Seattle Hit – alex – 2.29.6 – 115 – Retired winner of 6.4m. HOF

2000 (8f) – Enough Knock – win – 1.34.8 – 111 – Retired winner of 7.8m. HOF.

2001 – Captain Dibble – waywardlad – 2.31.4 – 104 – Retired winner of $1.5m.

2002 – Stormy Prospector – bertamiran – 2.31.0 – 107 – retired winning $11m. HOF

2003 – Forty Wool – yahoo – 2.29.8 – 114 – retired winner of $1.1m.

2004 – Rain God – kevoman – 2.29.6 – 115 – active winner of $8m.

2005 – Jupiter’s Moons – coolk – 2.29.6 – 108 – active winner of $3.6m.

It’s fair to say that this year’s renewal does not have the depth normally associated with this event. Puppet Regime is the only top ten ranked runner. Only three of the top one hundred older turf stayers are taking place, while two of the top five ranked entries bring their rankings from the three year old divisions. Let’s work through the formguide for this year’s renewal:

Cuchulain’s Stand has drawn the inside gate and faces the biggest test of his career this weekend. He’s lined up against Grade 1 company on four previous occasions, taking home minor checks twice, when fifth of seven as a juvenile, and last year when fourth of fourteen in The Derby de English. Eight starts this year have seen him take home a first and a second at ungraded level, as his peak performances. In a stellar year, he would be out of his depth in this race, but with so many of his peer group prepping elsewhere for the Breeders Bowl, his current form puts him in with a good chance. The barrier will be of little consequence, as he’s likely to drop out in the early stages, with competent jockey Mo Johnson giving him plenty of time to settle before making his run. Cuchulain’s Stand is a four year old scratchbred son of High Chapparal / Peintre Celebre / Shirley Heights, trained by jonsnow, who has cleverly judged the lack of depth here, and has also entered Stronghold.

Gate 2 is the starting position for Flushing Waters, a genuine up and comer who, despite having been to the races just seven times, featured in a tight photo for second at his last outing, beaten a whisker into third by the champion, Rain God. That race, The Bluegrass Cup Turf – G2, was his first against open company, it was his first over this trip and he ran around the despised outsider at 33/1. A son of High Chaparral, he’s the first foal of Violet Sanford (Monashee Mountain / Sharrastani), a Grade 1 placed winner of five from eighteen, with both mother and son being pm ‘exclusives’. He looks to be among the real value runners here, having gone about his early racing efficiently, but without a great deal of fanfare, winning his maiden and three allowances in his first five, before stepping up to Graded racing. His most recent two have seen him third in The Boston Derby – G2, and again in that most impressive last start. This is the time of year when the three year olds stand up to be counted, and I’m tipping we’re going to hear a lot more of this young colt.

Yoko Bone O exits from barrier 3 and although a five year old with thirty three starts under his belt, he’s racing in career best form. He’d dabbled reasonably successfully with the grass on a couple of occasions earlier in his career, but he’s now won all three starts since his latest foray onto the turf. Two of those were ungraded stakes, but his last run here in The Horseshoe Falls Stakes – G2 will have the regular racegoers lining up to support him. He came from the clouds in that event six weeks ago, to run down a nine horse field in which every runner had black type form. Trainer sibarton has had nothing but joy from this runner, since seeing the potential when claiming him for just $10k. at his first ever trip to the races. Yoko Bone O is a scratchbred son of Yokohama / Distant View / Sure Blade, by far the most successful Yokohama currently racing in the sim. He gets his best chance to add Grade 1 glory to his six ungraded and one Grade 2 trophies scored to date.

Marcello Wallace has been allotted barrier 4, and is another who in ordinary circumstances should be a rank outsider in a race of this history, but who looms as a genuine threat in this ‘watered down’ renewal. Current form is the best form, and his last start produced a victory over the turf mile and a half, in reasonable time, off a nine month spell, so he ticks a few of the boxes when it comes to analyzing this event. On the down side, he’s looking to win at Grade 1 level here, without ever previously tasting black type success, his best result being a third of seven over two miles in his final three year old start. Marcello Wallace is a four year old son of Stravinsky, from Mrs Mia Wallace (Danehill / Blushing Groom), a lightly raced winner of one from six. He’s clearly still on the way up, with only eleven starts to date, and if there is to be a surprise result here, this costanza prepared is one of just a few capable of springing it.

Stronghold draws 5, and the four year old takes a huge step here, selecting a top race after returning from recent allowance racing. A winner of seven from twenty one, he has black type on the CV thanks to an ungraded victory at his first start of the year, but after attempting higher, jonsnow has set the bar a little lower recently, returning to allowance racing for his last five, where he’s been racing solidly over this type of journey, without setting the world on fire. Once again, the fact that he’s some sort of chance here is a tribute to the trainer’s spotting of an opportunity, rather than the horse’s exposed record. He’s never posted a triple digit speed figure which is hardly encouraging for a race of this caliber, but he is one of the runners worthy of consideration in your exotics. Stronghold is a four year old scratchbred son of Point Given / Northern Dancer / Seattle Slew and will be capably ridden by V. Townsend.

Freeze lines up in barrier 6 and looks to face a mammoth task at just his fifth start. A winner of just the solitary maiden, his one redeeming feature is the fact that his speed ratings are showing continual upward movement as his career progresses. Freeze is a nicely put together scratchbred three year old, carrying the lines of Zabeel / Barathea / Saint Ballado, trained by his breeder, aggots. It seems to far too early to be tackling this type of race, but he made the cut and will be ridden by V. Staff, one of the better riders. Not for mine, but stranger things have happened.

Drawn in barrier 7 is Swingshift Sal, one of the sim’s past greats looking to recapture some of the form which has taken him to the winners circle in nine Graded races. His record reads thirteen wins and two and a quarter million dollars from his 44 start career. Although he appears to have slowed a tad recently, having won just an allowance this year, he continues to run solid races against very high quality opposition. Interestingly, in thirty one starts over the last two and a bit years, he’s only once returned a speed figure below 90, and eighteen of those runs have produced triple digits. He’s not going to get a better chance to score another Grade 1 victory, as the depth here this week is a step below par. Swingshift Sal is a scratch homebred son of Night Shift / Roberto / Fappiano, owned and trained by his breeder, click, and is one of the major winning chances in this event

From gate 8 emerges Desert Joker, another three year old looking to make his name in the big time, despite his career highlight to date being an ungraded stakes win against his own age group. Perhaps his best run was achieved at Grade 1 level, when he finished fifth in The Smackdown II – G1, beating seven other three year old runners home. Although soundly beaten, he did hold his ground late, at his first attempt at this distance in The Owner’s Stakes – G1 at this track at his last start. He’s been freshened for this, having not raced for nine weeks and he could run some sort of a race, but to see him finish ahead of the proven graded runners would have to be a surprise. Desert Joker is an unfashionably bred son of Joker / Fabulous Dancer / Prospector’s Gamble, in the care of landen4.

Broad Competition has drawn the 9, a four year old scratchbred son of Broad Brush / Polish Numbers / Machiavellian, who earned a tilt at this courtesy of a close up second five weeks ago in an ungraded stake in Victoria. He’s been knocking on the door recently, with a win, three seconds, a third and a fourth at his last six, albeit at a lower level. con10der4 has kept this colt primarily in allowance racing, meeting black type here for just the fourth time in a career of thirty six starts. He’s yet to win at the higher level, but has finished second and third previously. Broad Competition is far from the normal type of genuine chance in a million dollar, Grade 1 classic, but such is the dearth of quality lining up this weekend, that he’s one of just a few capable of causing an upset.

Puppet Regime jumps from 10. If I were framing the market here he’s be long odds on, as he’s one of only a small handful of genuine Grade 1 contenders, and his exposed form stands head and shoulders above those he’s taking on this weekend. With ten wins from nineteen, and nearly two million in the bank, he will yet again run his usual honest race at the highest level. A scratchbred four year old son of Kingmambo / Nijinsky / Mr. Prospector, he’s more than proven his ability to measure up here, having been victorious early in the year in Dubai’s Sand Castle Golden Turf Classic – G1. His last four have all produced triple digit speed ratings, he’s proven at this level, he’s taken home a check at every run this year. Puppet Regime will be ridden by the premier jockey B. Renfoe. His breeder / trainer wrecks2 has placed him perfectly throughout his career, and he’s simply the best horse in this race.

Gate 11 will be occupied by Rock of Dancers, a well bred four year old filly with nothing apart from her bloodlines to suggest any sort of chance in this. She’s nought from three in routes, with her best result fifth of seven in The Filly Turf Bonanza – G3 as an early three year old. Her only attempt at a mile and a half saw her almost distanced when last of fourteen in The Sim Sports Irish Oaks – G1. Rock of Dancers is a scratchbred daughter of Rock of Gibraltar / Nureyev / Nijinsky, owned trained and bred by petermich. Her only hope is for her superb breeding to magically emerge from nowhere.

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Stall 12 is the starting slot for Kiss of Betrayal, most aptly described as an up and comer. Although victorious at ungraded stakes level as a juvenile, her first three races this year were back against allowance opposition before recently returning to the black type for her last two outings. It’s a big ask for a three year old filly to be taking on the older males, but with an ungraded win prior to her latest strong second against the older females in Japan’s Spankie-Sho All Comers – G2, she’s progressing in leaps and bounds. A beautifully bred daughter of Rock of Gibraltar, she’s already the stand-out of three progeny to date of Hard Elf (Gone West / El Gran Senor) a lightly raced winner of two from just seven starts. I don’t rank Kiss of Betrayal as highly as pm’s other starter Flushing Waters, but while there are a lot of runners who simply don’t deserve to be here, this stable may have snuck a couple in under the radar

Christmas Day SS alights from stall 13 and has no hope. He finished last in a New Mexico G1 last start, and the shortest odds in this race would be those for him repeating that effort here. Christmas Day SS is a four year old son of Awesome Again, from the moderately performed Victory Laura, a stompy007 shared, daughter of Montjeu / Arch Sculptor. My money says he’ll be distanced.

The I Inside, from the outside gate rounds out the field, and, although talented, is another who appears to be tilting at windmills. A winner of just two from nineteen, she finished last in her only previous turf run, and hasn’t won since her two year old days, despite fronting up in some fairly weak allowances. The I Inside is a nicely related mare, bred from scratch by petermich using Coronado’s Quest / Cure the Blues / Valid Appeal. I’d like to own her, but I wouldn’t be asking her to do this.

Summary: How do you have a fourteen horse walkover. No, that’s not fair. Yoko Bono O is in fine form, and Swingshift Sal is a genuine contender at this level. Cuchulain’s Stand can run some very impressive races over these conditions, while Flushing Waters, Marcello Wallace and Kiss of Betrayal are on the up and deserve their chances. A couple more could run decent races without surprising, but so, so many of the others just do not belong in a race with such a steeped history. Puppet Regime from Yoko Bono O and Flushing Waters

The Odds Makers opinion:

2/1 – Puppet Regime

7/2 – Yoko Bone O

6/1 – Swingshift Sal

8/1 – Cuchulain’s Stand

9/1 – Broad Competition

The Computer opinion:

Puppet Regime – 6

Kiss of Betrayal – 24 (3yo fillies rank)

Yoko Bone O – 31      

Flushing Waters – 42 (3yo colts ranking)

Swingshift Sal – 90