Fillies go hunting for Italy’s Wilted Petals
Italy plays host to the GII Wilted Petals for 3yo fillies this week. But what kind of flowers does the winning filly get? I couldn’t find anyone in track management who knew whether the winner actually received a set of wilted flowers, but I did find out the track record for the 6 furlong race (1:09.1) is held by three fillies: Grass And She (2004), Baylee’s Dream (2003), and Moor’s Bluff (2002). The purse is $225k, and 12 fillies will go to the post.
Cat Hall, a Halling filly owned by tonno500, has the coveted rail position. Too bad, because she doesn’t have the swift turn of foot out of the gate that would make the rail the ideal position to be in. She tends to break a bit slowly and will settle in a couple of lengths off the lead before trying to slip up and sneak away with the win. Cat Hall has yet to run six panels, and has yet to win a stakes race at any distance. Still, she’s coming off a solid allowance win at 5.5 (she won by one length with a 91), but that was here highest SP to date. The graded company and generally the tougher company will make this race too difficult for Cat Hall to win, I think. She does look to have a nice future, but I’d like to see her gain some success in listed company before going for the bigger stuff. 29-1 odds.
Skip The Cat, a Skip Away filly owned by slewsback, will break from Post 2. Skip The Cat is the best offspring of the excellent racemare Queen’s Cats. Unlike her mama, though, Skippy loves the turf. She’s been campaigned hard, with 22 starts to her resume now (10 of those races were run at 2), but she’s earned some success (5 wins including a pair of stakes, four places, and three shows for $402k in earnings). Despite her record, however, she’s not all that fast in comparison to the best filly sprinters in the sim; her highest SP to date was a 90 earned six races ago in a 7f listed stake where she finished second by just over a length. She’s 23-1 on the morning line.
Princessj’s Theatrical filly All Princess(IRE) breaks post 3, and has the longest odds on the board at 42-1. She’s got six starts in her and struggled through her first four races, then her trainer had the bright idea to enter a cheap MSW turf sprint. All Princess went straight for the lead and never looked back, winning by just under two and posting a 90SP. She polished off her nw2L condition last start in a 6f allowance, which she wired to post an 85SP. Nice filly who looks like she’ll round into a very useful one, but far too inexperienced to try this kind of race without some stellar performances to back up entry.
Post 4 will hold the only millionaire in the field, palmisland’s Jaca. Her entry in this field is unusual, as Jaca is ranked # in the turf long division but only #48 in the sprint group. She’s a Mt Livermore filly with hands-down the best resume of any filly in the field. This time last year Jaca was prepping for the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Filly Turf, which she won by a quarter length. This year she ran fourth in the GI Equinics at 9f, second in the 12f GI Sydney Oaks, and second by a nose in the 9f GII Michigan Sophomore Turf Invitational. She’s shown so much talent going over a mile that the drop back to sprints seems in the surface to be an odd choice. But, Jaca seems to have flattened out a bit. Returning to sprints for the first time in over a year may be just what Jaca needs to get moving again. She’s got class in spades, but I’m just not sure that she’s really a sprinter at heart. Her finish will be a good indication of future entries, I think. She’s 11-1 on the morning line.
Wearing saddlecloth #6 will be Mirri Maz Duur, running for the grrm stable. The Rahy filly seems to have found her niche in turf sprints. Indeed she’s 9:5-2-0 in them, with $120k in earnings. Last time out she tried the 6 furlong distance for the first time this year and loved it, posting a 102SP but just falling short at the wire to an older more experienced mare. The combination of dropping back to her own age group and moving up to graded company seems to bode very well. Mirri is very fast, and versatile enough to wire the field or stalk the pace as she pleases. I really like her chances, and at 7-1 she’s very worth betting on.
Just to Mirri’s outside will be Best of Quirt, owned by the quirt stable. The Speightstown filly has spent her entire 12-race career sprinting. She started on dirt, but after a couple races quirt decided to move her to the grass and she promptly reeled off four wins in a row before faltering in her first stakes attempt. It certainly wasn’t a bad race, though, as she finished third. Funny thing is until her most recent start BoQ had never been worse than third in grass. Last time out she was fourth in a listed stake at 7.5. BoQ has some experience in graded company; two starts back she was third by a half-length in the 6f GI Green Bullet. Her highest SP to date, a 97, was in her last start, and generally she seems to be improving SP-wise as she matures. She tends to be a midpack closer, but has never been more than 5 lengths out of contention at the second call. 8-1 odds, good record, she’s one to keep an eye on.
Also at 8-1 is the horse in the 7 hole, Zamachita. She’s a stakes-placed daughter of Storm Cat out of multiple graded-stakes winning Fusaichi Pegasus hemare. Run out of the zambaygo barn, she wears the same silks as does Jaca. Zama has really broken out in her last couple of races in allowance company. She’s tried turf stakes three times and three times finished second. Will she break that streak here? Could be, if her last start is any indication. She won a 6.5 furlong allowance by a half length with a very nice 101SP. The cutback to six might be a bit of a problem if she doesn’t get moving quickly enough, and I’d actually like to see Zama try at least a mile before too long.
The Lennbrenner Empire is represented by #8, Falling Sky, running from the lenny271 stable. The A.P. Indy filly has six wins from 14 starts, and her record this year is nothing short of stellar. She’s had 9 turf races, all on grass, in 2006, and from those she’s got three stakes wins and a second and a third in graded company. Those two graded races were both at 7, and Falling Sky was on the move in the stretch of both. I’d love to see what she can do at a mile. She hasn’t seen 6 furlongs since February, but I see no reason she won’t be able to handle dropback. Fast filly, good record, 4-1 is a gift. Hard to see her do any worse than third.
Signorinetta, a Spinning World filly trained out of the delpendude stable, will start from post 9. She’s fresh off a nice stakes win at 6, but that was on good turf rather than the firm she gets here. She has yet to break the 100SP barrier, but she’s come close a few times and looks like she’ll eventually get there. Signorinetta has come a log way this, breaking her maiden in her second start of the season at a mile, picking up an allowance win and then a stakes win at a mile, and notching a third in the GII Pioneer Boulevard Cup at 8.5. She was doing so nicely stretching out that the drop back to 6 is rather odd, but the trainer may be hoping to shock his filly into another level of racing. 6-1 odds may be a bit low given the filly’s apparent preference for slightly longer.
Post 10 will be occupied by the 8-1 Southern Halo filly Crossland Drive. Trained out of the ssj4vegeta stable, Crossland is ranked #6 in the division after a set of strong races this year. She does have three stakes wins to her credit. She has yet to win a graded stake, but was outrun in the stretch in the GIII Latonia Special at 7 furlongs to run second by just a length, and in her most recent start lost the 6f GI Green Bullet by a slim nose. Crossland’s highest SP to date is a 101 (earned in the Latonia), and given a firm track she’s pretty consistent in running mid to high 90s. If she can increase the rate of her stretch drive just a smidge she’ll be right in the mix at the wire.
The 5-2 favorite, Dance Seeker, has also earned the highest SP in the field. Rockriver’s Seeking the Gold filly started 2005 with a seven-race win streak that included wins in the 7f GIII Latonia and 8.5f GII Celine, but the streak was broken when she lost the 8f GI Cremation by a half-length. Her lifetime high SP was a 108, posted in a 7f listed stake on yielding grass. She also has 3 other 100+ races on firm going. Dance Seeker tried 10f in the GI Big Red against the boys two stars back but really didn’t care for something (the distance or the company? who knows). Rockriver dropped her back to a mile last time out in the GI Sun State Cup but she was only good enough for fourth despite a solid closing run and a 102SP. The drop again to 6 then is surprising; it appears Dance Seeker is fairly comfortable in the 8-9 furlong range, and perhaps even deserves another try at 10 against her own sex. I think this race is going to be too short for her, but i’m not entirely eliminating her from consideration; you ignore a classy filly like this, even at the wrong distance, at your own peril.
Breaking from the far outside is the Alhaarth(IRE) filly Dolly Soks(IRE). Trained by bergy, she’s 19-1 on the morning line. She’s fresh off a pair of allowance wins at 6 and 7.5 furlongs, but is still looking for stakes win #1 despite running a very nice second in a listed stake at 7.5f four starts back with a 95. That race was also her best SP to date. She seems to have found her best distance in the sprints, but her only attempt over a mile seems to have ended in injury given the 10 weeks off she experienced midsummer. I think in the end she’ll prove more successful at the 7.5-8.5f range, but in the meantime those recent wins make her belong in the race if not likely to be a major factor. Nice filly with a lot of potential, but as yet she hasn’t shown what it takes to win this one.
Overall assessment: Mirri Maz Duur and Falling Leaves are my main picks, but I can see Jaca or Dance Seeker mixing it up as well.