Xtremely Gold Looks to Tie Record in Oktoberfest
The GI Oktoberfest is going to be a fantastic race. It’s 14 furlongs on the dirt for older fillies and mares, and the result will either be a tied record or a major upset. Either way, this race is one to watch. This is the second of two long-distance races hosted by Vermont for the ladies this week (the other is the GI Hofbrauhaus). Xtremely Gold is the prohibitive favorite in this race, but she faces good competition from The Divorce and Lou Hollandia, as well as a trio of SDMF-trainees.
The obvious choice to win:
Xtremely Gold is one of those horses that comes along once in a lifetime. Bred by ejdstable, she started her career late in her 3yo year and finished out that first season with a perfect 4-for-4 record. She started her 4yo year by reeling off a string of 5 wins (so her current win streak is not her longest), and came back from her first loss to win her very first GI in the First State Distaff. Her final start of 2005 was marked with some controversy as her stable was disbanded and she was dropped into a $25k claimer. Many trainers made a mad dash for the claim box, and the lucky winner of this 5yo Touch Gold was the grracers stable, which is one of the racing stables owned by the GR Simsters residency. Under the care of the Simsters, X Gold opened 2006 with a strong second in a turf stake, then went back to the dirt and hasn’t lost since. Her string of victories this year include the G1 Angel Cordero (Equinics) at 14f, GI California at 14f, GIII iMedic.com at 14f against males, GI Kentucky Horseman Whiskey Cup at 16f against males, GIII Denied Special at 12f, GI Smackdown II at 14f, and in her previous start the GIII Manual Labor Day at 16f. When she runs she typically closes from midpack or so, but she can win on the lead when she wants to. W McClendon rides for the fourth time this year. Short of another entrant finding a miracle, X Gold is pretty much unbeatable, in my opinion. Take the 3-1 odds and make some cash off this mare.
Good chances to play spoiler
Running for the Hollandia empire out of the tote stable is Lou Hollandia, a well-accomplished 5yo Tarlac mare. Her last couple of races were a bit below par, but she’s a multiple stakes winner in the 11 to 13 furlong range and was just under a length from a win at 14 last summer. She’s only tried graded company once (in this year’s 12f Equinics race), but it was an uncharacteristically poor performance. If any mare is likely to pull the rug out from under X Gold, it’s this one. Her speeds are a bit lower than X Gold’s on average, but any mare that is capable of running 100+ in the long distance category can get the job done if the stars are properly aligned. She’s 9-1 on the morning line.
Bucking Bronco has demonstrated talent at the classic distances, so it’s a bit odd to see trainer coolk2move this 4yo Wild Again filly out of her comfort zone. Bronco had an excellent 3yo year, posting eight wins including a season-closer GIII win in the Girls Cap at 10f, and a total of 5 races with speeds over 100. This year hasn’t been quite so kind to her, so perhaps her trainer’s hoping a bit of a shakeup will get his filly back on track. The distance she’ll get in this race isn’t totally out of the question; in April Bronco ran second in a stake at 11f and was closing very well. It’s a big jump up to 14 but her pedigree doesn’t suggest major distance limitations and her ability to vary running styles (she can lead, stalk, and close as needed) can only help in this race. 13-1 odds makes this filly worth a small flyer on the chance she turns out to like marathons.
Tiger Sides represents the imatiger2 stable. She’s entering this race after a pair of losses in at 11 and 12, but she has accomplished a pair of stakes wins and a slew of stakes places in the long distance category. The 5yo Devil His Due mare has tried 14f five times, and her best finish was a win in a listed stake. Lucky for her, that was three starts back and she posted a healthy 96SP indicating not only can she handle the distance, but she’s fast enough that under the right circumstances she can win this race. I’m not in love with this race as her graded debut, but at 5 years old Tiger Sides doesn’t have much time left on the track, so might as well take the chance when available. 10-1 odds, I like her to at least run top-5 if not top-3.
The SDMF trio
SDMF (aka Zewango) tries to beat the Simsters with three entries, Rage for Order, This Love, and Cynical. On paper This Love is the best of those three. She’s a 4yo Thunder Gulch filly who’s faced off with X Gold twice this year in the Equinics and Smackdown II. In the former This Love must have lost a shoe as she was never a factor, and in the latter she finished a fading fourth about seven lengths behind X Gold. Despite those losses, This love has three wins at 14 this year including a pair of stakes wins, and has run a high of 102SP for this distance. She has a tendency to be a fairly deep closer, so watch for her to drop way back 10 more more lengths by the halfway point. 8-1 cosecond choice.
The other 8-1 cosecond betting choice is Rage for Order, who will be running a quarter mile longer than ever before as she represents the sarava02 stable. The 4yo Summer Squall filly seems to have turned a corner since getting 11+ panels in her last three starts, and she rewarded her trainer with a pair of nice stakes wins and a solid third. A big plus is her ability to win from on or near the lead. There doesn’t look to be a ton of speed in this race, so if she gets loose on the lead she could steal the race. She’s shown some nice speed (101 at 12f two starts back) and I think she’ll handle the distance easily.
The final SDMF entry is Cynical, running for the zewango3 stable. The 18-1 odds indicate the betters don’t think much of her chances, but her craft trainer must hope his triple-team can wear down X Gold. Despite the high odds, this Green Desert filly is actually pretty good. She’s got six wins from 22 starts, and has earned nearly $200k. She’s also earned black type; she won a 12f race in her second start of the year. Despite not having run 14f this year, she does have some experience at the distance; last year she ran second at 14 in an allowance, then followed that up with a seventh in a GIII. The class seems to be a bit above her head, but she’s suited for the distance. Her big question is speed. She’s posted a lifetime high of 99, but that was in her sole stakes win back in January.
Always a bridesmaid
The Divorce is a rather unusual filly. She’s ranked #3 in her division, but has just a single win in a cheap MSW in January 2005 to her credit, She’s earned her ranking but virtue of eight seconds and four thirds in 30 starts. She’s a rather inconsistent filly with just three seconds from 10 starts this year, but she’s the only filly to have come anywhere near X Gold in 2006. She was just a couple of lengths short of spoiling X Gold’s California victory, but lost by 13 in their most recent matchup in the GIII Manual Labor Day. Pulling off another second would not be a surprise at all, but she doesn’t seem to have the heart to hold out for the big win.
The Misses Inconsistent
It’s got to drive trainer skyhigh (aka Ted of the T horses) nuts to see his Ransom Calling filly T Held Ransom win a stake at 13 with a 97, then turn around at the same conditions ate lose by 23 with an 80. That kind of inconsistency pretty much describes Held Ransom’s career. In 30 starts she has five wins including a pair of stakes victories. Her one try at the 14f distance was on slop, so it’s a bit hard to say how she’ll react to a fast track. However, she is graded-placed at 16 (she ran third in the GIII Manual Labor) and was relatively close up at about the 14f marker, so she can’t be ruled out. It’s just hard to bet her for two big reasons: you never know what she’ll do, and her speeds are a notch below what it will take to beat X Gold.
High Flyer is a talented but fussy 4yo Dixie Union filly owned by 2ofus. She’s fresh off a pair of wins including her best race ever last time out in the GIII We Shall Never Forget at 14f. That race saw High Flyer close from way back to pull off a one-length win; she posted a 101SP. She looks like’s she’s on an upswing, but High Flyer’s shown flashes of brilliance before and then followed up with poor performances. Still, she’s now got four top-threes in a row and I have a feeling she’s finally figured out the racing game. Two wins out of three tries at 14 says she likes the distance, her recent efforts say she’s enjoying winning, I saw she’s going to be a big factor in the order of finish. 12-1 odds.
Ready for the bigtime?
Grand Slam Classic, wearing the lightbulb silks of LordPye, has been bouncing between allowances and listed stakes this year, and looks like she’s finally ready to break through to the bigtime. This is the kind of smart claim that makes trainers successful; Pye saw her languishing in dirt sprints and turf races last year and picked up the 4yo Grand Slam filly for a mere $13500. He immediately moved her into dirt long races and GSC responded well. Her first start at 14 last December saw GSC win by an amazing eight lengths with a 98SP. That’s enough to beat XGold some days. She still has yet to win a listed stake, but she has placed, and certainly deserves a try in this race. 12-1 odds.
Newscoobi’s Prodler’s Wells is making her stakes debut after a a really nice allowance win at 13 furlongs last time out. The Sadler’s Wells filly posted a 100SP with the 3 1/2 length win, which had to inspire enough confidence to take a chance here. After all, if Prodler can beat X Gold, she earns instant credibility and her own claim to fame. Prodler prefers to run just off the lead (within 2-3 lengths of it generally) but the distinct lack of a confirmed frontrunner could see Prodler taking the lead right out of the gate. The only time she’s done that, she wired the field for fun by five. 14-1 odds.
Sam the Man(IRE) is thought of fairly highly by the track handicapper based on the 9-1 morning line odds, and her record in the long category supports that kind of support. Trained by roberto2, this Black Sam Bellamy(IRE) filly has the same CPU rating as X Gold (1000) but still doesn’t have any major successes at the graded level. Might she solve that shortcoming here? She has three wins for the year including a pair of stakes win at 11 and 13 furlongs. She’s tried 14 once last year but lost by about four lengths. While Sam The Man has won at 2 miles, I really suspect that 13 is about her upper limit against good competition, so she’s likely going to fall a bit short at the wire. Still, she’s a solid filly whose comfortable going long, and she’s game enough to hang on for a minor placing.
The headscratcher
The field longshot (26-1) Phantom Avenue(IRE) is a puzzle of an entry. The 6yo Roseberry Avenue(IRE) mare has a long record of wins (18 of them in 47 starts), but only 2 of those have been at the allowance level, the rest in claimers and starters. Her propensity for running top 3 means she’s been a major earner of BPs. Current owner mig must think the mare’s current three-race win streak (from two $20k starters and an allowance) has earned her a shot at the big time, especially considering she’s just recently lost her starter tag. With a best speed at 14f of 91, she’s just too slow to be a major factor. Too bad, because it would be a feather in her trainer’s cap to turn this former claimer into a graded phenom.
At the finish
It’s going to take a huge effort to beat Xtremely Gold. While I think some of these fillies are capable of doing it, X Gold is in such good form that I don’t see anyone beating her in this race. That means the major question is really about second and third. Grand Slam Classic and High Flyer are my picks to fill out the top 3, but really anything beyond the winner is up for grabs.