QE2 Challenge(G1) honors top sophomore turf fillies
Kentucky– It’s like a Breeders Bowl race for the sophomore classic turf fillies division in the Grade 1 $500,000 QE2 Challenge. This time-honored contest makes those milers stretch out to nine panels and provides the distance’s specialists a place to shine.
We’ve got a good group of 13 gals for this year’s QE2 renewal. Dual-graded victoress Cannot Comply goes off as the 4/1 favorite, followed by classy millionaire Kiss Or Kill, Sun State(G1) runner-up Chop Never Stops, and Demona Handicap(G1) winner Alma(IRE).
Let’s take a look at the field……………..
1 CANNOT COMPLY super13 D Sherman 4/1
The supers had to be a little disappointed with Cannot Comply’s Sun State Cup(G1-8fT). The Diana(G3) and Lillispelis(G3) winner couldn’t handle a speed scramble and wound up out of the money. Granted, the Rahy daughter didn’t get beat too bad, finishing 4 3/4 lengths behind winner Ascendancy. However, she’s likely to face that same kind of scenario again Saturday. There are several other pace candidates, probably the best of which being Bad Scene and Chop Never Stops. Additionally, she races on two weeks rest.
One thing going for her though is that she’s got another furlong to work with and, indeed, this will be her first atttempt at the distance. She’s graded-placed a sixteenth less, so there’s no reason to suspect that she won’t take to the tad bit more yardage. Excellent jockey aboard of course in D Sherman(12%). If the jockey can get Cannot Comply to relax a bit behind the pace…. this just might be her big day. The bookies love her. IMO, she has a lot of question marks and this is a real hurdle for her. Expect a solid effort though.
2 KISS OR KILL biznes B Sipe 5/1
A leading freshman filly last year, Kiss Or Kill has had an up-and-down 3YO season. She started off well enough winning a 9f listed event and placing in the same company a couple times too. A 105 SP# around 7.5f presented an opportunity to specialize in graded turf sprints and she did win at the Grade 2 level over the summer. Unplaced in her sole 8.5f attempt though.
Certainly a talented Milwaukee Brew gal with tons of back class, boasting over $1-million in career earnings. Makes 20th career start Saturday on three weeks rest. Worth a shot at one of the final 3yo turf filly races of the season. However, must improve over 9f, proving that she belongs. Could vie for the lead or stalk the pace. Would prefer the latter style with this group. Conquistador Cielo as damsire sure suggests that she’d love a good route of ground. Despite the odds, kind of a dark horse. Better watch out. Wouldn’t be too much of a surprise if she suddenly turns her season around in this race! Very interesting.
3 CHOP NEVER STOPS jsimpson D Givins 6/1
Trainer jsimpson had to be extremely happy with Chop Never Stops’ runner-up effort in the Sun State Cup(G1-8fT). It was only the Green Desert daughter’s 3rd start since finishing 2nd in the 1,000 Guineas last May. With a 104 SP#, she broke through the hundred-barrier for the first time in her career, running a huge race after dueling for the early lead. She’s still ranked #3 in the division.
This time Chop Never Stops gets top Kentucky jockey D Givins(25%). She was graded placed over 9f in late winter and won the How Are You Gentlemen(G1) over 8.5f as well. So, no worries whether or not she can get the distance. It’s still possible though that she’s a pure miler. Races on two weeks rest of course for the first time in her young career. Only 10th lifetime start Saturday. Lovely filly still eligible for a NW3L. We’ll see if she can wheel back after the short break, but faces yet antoher speed duel again here and that might be too tough.
4 TOAST DA GHOST corza4 R Connor 25/1
Former high-tag claimer by Silver Buck recently tried two-turns running again. The frontrunner/stalker couldn’t beat claiming fillies over 9f…. no reason to suspect that she’ll fire versus Grade 1-caliber. Clearly a turfer — I just think these types of entries are better served in ALW company. Figure out the horse first before throwing caution to the wind. Little chance.
5 ALMA(IRE) usoz P Cadigan 6/1
El Prado(IRE) filly riding high on two-race win streak including a victory versus older mares in the Demona(G1-9fT). Gorgeous 107 SP# in that race. She had been contesting longer distances for much of the summer before finally returning to preferred shorter routes.
Sparkling entry looks absolutely on target for Saturday. Ranked #6 in the division, she’ll benefit from an expected speed duel. Closer gets one of the top KY jockeys in P Cadigan(14%). Four weeks rest. Gonna very tough to beat this filly, but, again, she’ll need the duel up front. One to watch.
6 STORMY AND SPICY mmstable2 A Levell 11/1
Recently switched to the lawn, winning 2 of 3 at the listed level. Storm Of The Night daughter won 7.5f & 8f races — she closed well to hit the board again over the mile LTO. No 100 SP#s yet though, but perhaps she needs a little more ground being out of an Irish River(FR) mare.
I agree with the shot at the bigtime. Viable longshot just needs to put it all together and throw the best race of her young life so far. Tall order though since she faces a big field here and rather used to shorter fields. So-so jockey aboard. Outsider, but not without a chance.
7 MALPASO kevoman5 R Coleman 8/1
Interesting longshot here. Sadler’s Wells daughter displayed competitiveness over the main track for trainer Kevoman. However, she returned with a bang to the green stuff two starts ago, winning two straight 9f and 8.5f allowances. Skips over listed level straihgt to the top riding 2-race win streak.
Stalker won going away in both starts. Races on two weeks rest. Obvious stalent, but has to really step it up a couple of notches to fit in with this group. Still, interesting wildcard with a so-so jockey aboard. Might be a bit of a reach, but wouldn’t be surprising if she runs a good race, earning some money. These other top fillies are probably a few starts ahead of her though in regards to class level. Gotta play catch up in a hurry.
8 THREE TO EIGHT thomkal C Kendall 21/1
Lousy recent SP#s for this experienced Congaree filly (20 lifetime starts already). She was Grade 2 placed earlier this season over this distance, albeit versus a short field. Hasn’t done much in ALW company since. Switches back from two starts over main track. Unless she wakes up all of a sudden, looks pretty much overmatched. Needs to elevate her speed figures big time.
Likes this distance though. Has to prove she belongs. Doubtful versus this caliber of company.
9 RED HILL theatrical S Blood 11/1
Another gal who switched back to green stuff. Red Ransom filly won 2 of 3 at ALW level over 7.5f and 8f. Well beaten though when testing 9f. Big 100 SP# over 7.5f begs the question as to why this spot.
Savvy trainer one of the best in the Sim. Theatrical can develop talent — but IMO this entry looks like he’s kind of thrown her in here just to see what she does. Distnace shouldn’t be too much of a problem, but needs to put it all together in very difficult race. Midpacker/stalker might be in hunt for minor money at best. Too much of a wildcard for me.
10 NORMAN DANCER(IRE) misti Te Allen 13/1
I think this is a god entry. Noverre(IRE) daughter rides 4-race win streak. Her trainer has her contesting short route turf stakes earlier this season with a couple of victories. However, misti pulled her back to the ALW ranks, p[icking up some scores and, more importantly, building consistency and speed figures.
Love that progression for upper 80s to 97 SP# LTO. She can get this distance and has passed the black type level before. However, Norman Dancer must prove that she belongs at the graded level. Most difficult race yet for this gal. Lousy jockey aboard tries to win her victory #8 from just 12 outings. Possible, but must break on through with speed figs and class level. Interesting.
11 BRUCIE BONUS beefcake4 V Wright 24/1
Rainbow Quest gal hasn’t done much this season. Experienced at stakes level, but her best performance came with a 6th-place finish in the 1,000 Guineas. Hans’t tried 9f either — was well beaten in lone 10f outing.
I think this filly would benefit from a return to the lesser level ALW ranks, trying to build some consistency there. Otherwise, she’s always an also-ran. Might throw a huge effort every now and then…. but when? Very little chance at all.
12 BAD SCENE lenny6 L Cardinal 7/1
Lenny brings a dual graded winner by hot young Sim sire Pleasantly Perfect. Bad Scene likely to challenge Cannot Comply and Chop Never Stops for pacesetting honors. Classy gal did just that, shaking loose in the Del Webb Oaks(G1-9fT) LTO. She looked like an obvious winner, but caved in late in the stretch, finishing second with 103 SP#.
A true blue 9f specialist, she broke on through the 100 SP# barrier for the very first time in the Del Webb. Great form and appears on target coming off a 6-week breather. Gota love her chances, but Bad Scene will have company up front early. Must tough out the duel after being used to seizing command by her lonesome. Worthy shot.
13 SIM ARCADE T good A Alexander 22/1
Sadler’s Wells granddaughter won a couple of 9.5f listed stakes earlier this season. Hans’t done much since though. Short fields and 80 SP#s doesn’t bode well for the gal’s chances Saturday. Closer needs some luck turning her season around. Doubtful whether she’ll put it all together in this classy spot. Outside chance.
Snowchief’s Picks:
Alma(IRE) looks best in this spot as a closer benefitting from anticipated speed duel between Bad Scene, Chop Never Stops, and Cannot Comply. Kiss Or Kill might also join this fray, but it’s possible that both she and Cannot Comply will sit back behind the pace. Are Cannot Comply and Chop Never Stops milers though?
Norman Dancer presents great form, but will she pass the class test? I’d look for a solid money finish from her.
Longshots Malpaso and Storm And Spicy step up in class. Might prove to be too big of a leap for them. Still, you never know.
Three To Eight likes this distance but must raise her speed figs.
I’ll toss out Brucie Bonus, Sim Arcade T, Red Hill, and Toast Da Ghost. All either haven’t done much of late or just kind of tossing up a prayer in this Grade 1.
I’m gonna go with the recent Grade 1 winner versus older mares Alma(IRE). On a hunch, I’ll guess Kiss Or Kill rallies for the place spot, enjoying this stretch out in distance according to pedigree. Bad Scene hangs on for the show spot.
Win: Alma(IRE)
Place: Kiss Or Kill
Show: Bad Scene
Good luck to all.