A Full Field Leaves the Gate in the 6th Annual WALNUT TREE STAKES
The 6th Annual WALNUT TREE STAKES takes place this Saturday, and unfortunately it’s the first year that didn’t have perfect blue skies and a fast course. A fairly illustrious group has won this race in previous years:
2000 – GRAN GOER – rgbstable – longish odds, 83SP
2001 – RED DUHLERT – liam – 2nd favourite in a really strong field, 99SP
2002 – JUMP ROPE – larksfarms – 2nd favourite, 91SP
2003 – ALY STORM – mowar – favourite, 102SP
2004 – DEVIL’S SLIDE – afc – medium-pack odds, 97SP – 2.6M lifetime
2005 – ST GOAR – unworldly – long-odds, 89SP – 159K lifetime
Horses of all types have traditionally won this race, some of whom the bookies preferred and some of whom were underestimated. It looks like the best fillies overlooked this race last year; will this year revive the tradition of having top talent?
TEARS OF GOLD trained by kingab – 9/1
A two-time winner this EMPIRE MAKER filly has never tried any distance beyond 7f. However, she has faced a softer track in her debut. She’s been pulling away from the pack in her last two races so the distance should suit, but she will need to improve her speed figures in order to win big in a graded stakes.
THE WALL OF SHAME trained by jarrod2 – 13/1
With five races under her belt this SILVER CHARM filly is one of the more experienced horses running. I think the bookies probably got it right; this filly didn’t seem to like the good track in the AMERICAN RULE Special and has been fading in the stretch. In this classier field holding the lead will be even more difficult. That being said this filly had an improved performance last time out on the turf, and I’d like to see her return there in her next attempt.
ADVANTAGE trained by wajima – 16/1
Despite the long odds you can’t overlook the fact that this filly is 3-2-0-0 a testament to being correctly placed early on in her career. She won a stakes in 2895, with her best SP of 74. In this field she’ll have to improve again and with the added distance that might be a lot to ask. Her sire ALDEBARAN throws mostly sprinters and with STORM CAT as a dam sire I’d like to see this one try an allowance on the inside track before returning to the stakes ranks.
MATUTA MATER trained by teaco – 16/1
Another filly with longs odds, this time probably because of a failed attempt in a graded stakes race in 2874. That’s light-years ago in a two-year-old season, and with a much improved performance last time out (gaining in the stretch over 7.5f) this one can’t be completely discounted.
WHAT WHAT OK trained by jdawg05 – 11/1
This filly has been three times a bridesmaid, but never the bride. Fading since her debut race, I’m not convinced this one will show the improvement necessary to win. The distance may also be an issue as daughter of LION HEART is bred for speed, speed, speed.
CLOUT trained by lasthope – 7/1
Our first contender with routing experience, this filly won last time out in her Stakes debut. She waited until the very last second to close the deal, crossing the finish line only a head above the placing horse. If she can either keep up with the lead pack or stay within close striking distance (a furlong or so) she may be able to capitalize on her experience at the distance.
QUIET SHEIKH trained by lawyerron – 12/1
Her record of 6-2-1-0 reflects a few too many unsuccessful stakes attempts, however she won last time out at this distance over a good track. If she can improve once again here she may stand a chance, particularly since she’s a strong closer in a field of mostly front or middle-of-the-pack runners.
GHOSTLY BREEZE trained by lenny2 – 6/1
This filly is showing strong odds because of her stellar record, three-for-three thus far in her young career. “BEEZY” is a testament to strong breeding and a patient trainer. She won her first stakes attempt last time out at this distance, pulling away from the pack and that experience will definitely help her here. It doesn’t look like she shies away from pressure – look for her to step it up around the 5f mark, push through the turn and away from the field in the stretch.
MCLAREN VALE trained by harvey – 5/1
This filly has been right on in her first two races, winning both with room to spare. As a favourite in both previous attempts, she seems to revel in the bookies praises. She likes to run from about mid-pack. The only concern here is the distance; she lost a little ground late in The ANNIE ADEN Special over 6.5f and with a few strong closers in this field she’ll have to improve to win.
DENIZENS(IRE) trained by seedly2 – 7/1
Breaking her maiden in her debut last time out, this daughter of THEATRICAL(IRE) shows promise. I would have preferred to see her stretch out a little more gradually, and perhaps use an allowance race or two to find out if she can also run on the turf, but sometimes its best to capitalize on success while it’s there. She’ll probably stick around her post-position neighbour MCLAREN VALE – and they should battle neck-in-neck for position throughout the race.
TURNBACK trained by hifive – 14/1
A long shot despite her record of 3-3-0-0, this is one to watch. She’s been improving consistently with distance and won a stakes race last time out. I expect to see her slip behind the leading pack (maybe with DENIZENS(IRE) and MCLAREN VALE), conserving fuel for her closing kick. She’ll be tough to beat in the stretch unless the leading pack has a huge lead.
JUMPING BARKER trained by crash77 – 12/1
This filly came close last time out over 7.5f, and won an allowance race at 8f the attempt prior to that. The extra ½ furlong certainly suits, but whether she has the closing-kick of some of the others is questionable. With a little improvement she could certainly crack the money.
EXPLICIT T trained by priceless – 14/1
Having only run sprints its tough to predict how this filly will react to being tossed into a stakes race with an extra 1.5f of dirt to cover. She’s also never tried an off track, which can always be a factor. Her sire ALJABR is all sprint, but her dam sire SADLER’S WELLS may help her cover the extra distance. If this one stands a chance she’s got to go out strong forcing the front-runners to use up steam early and giving the closers a challenge.
SIMPLY SAR trained by devineequ3 – 15/1
This daughter of SAARLAND hasn’t won a race since her debut in 2866, but has showed twice in stakes company. Her one graded race was a failed attempt, but she came back three weeks later with a much stronger effort over a mile. Although experienced at the distance she’ll have to improve considerably to stay with the front pack early on and save some energy for a strong finish.
Only time will tell whether this race has the depth of talent that it has in previous years. There’s a few in the field that will definitely make an appearance in future graded stakes, and a few that are perhaps over-classed. I always view patience as a virtue, and hope that these two year olds develop into something special for each of their owners.