Quality Juvenile Fillies Feature in Sweden

Sweden this week showcases The Camlaw Stakes, over the dirt mile and a sixteenth, for two year old fillies. This Grade 2 event carries a purse of $250,000 and features a full field of talented fillies. Three horses share the top line of betting at 5/1, and with a couple more under double figures, and the outsider far from hopeless at just 27/1 a close and exciting race is all but assured.

The Camlaw Stakes has been conducted annually here at Sweden since 2000, and the roll of honour contains a real mixed bunch. The first two winners are still officially active, despite the fact neither has raced for years, and the first winner has not started since week numbers contained just three digits. The next two winners are now both retired to the breeding shed. Real Magic has produced one black type horse from her two, while Incredible Danzel has the one offspring which has, as yet, failed to fire. The most recent two winners are still active and both more than paying their way. Button went on to win three graded races at three, and has continued to race impressively in black type races at four, taking her bank to almost $700k. Meanwhile Whip Smart has gone on to become the most impressive winner to date, winning the Fast Feline Stakes – G2 at her most recent start, four starts after her pinnacle to date, victory in The Black Middle Flower Stakes – G1. The past winners are:

2000 – Daring Czar – theatrical – 1.45.4 – 80 – inactive active winner of $191k.

2001 – Mac Town – luffe – 1.43.8 – 96 – another inactive active winner of $930k.

2002 – Real Magic – whtabrn – 1.44.6 – 88 – retired winning $310k. Dam of stakes placed Trip the Switch

2003 – Incredible Danzel – tg1 – 1.44.0 – 93 – retired winner of $293k.

2004 – Button – kaif012 – 1.42.8 – 103 – active winner of $670k.

2005 – Whip Smart – wistful – 1.43.6 – 92 – active winner of $930k

Let’s work through the formguide for this year’s renewal:

Yamazakura has drawn the inside gate and shares the top line of betting in this open feature. Her three race career started off in a blaze of glory, with convincing victories at her first two. Connections will be hoping her last start was an aberration as, when stepping up to black type for the first time, she faltered. She was facing the boys in that race five weeks ago, and could well be better suited back here against her own gender. Yamazakura was bred by lopickles, by sending the owner trainer’s superbly bred stakes placed mare Kamikaze (Deputy Minister / Mr. Prospector) to Mineshaft, and the young filly has set about quickly repaying the purchase cost. Expect her to race handy from the perfect gate, with quality hoop M. Jones sure to give her every chance.

Rudere jumps from 2 and with eight starts behind her already, shares the mantle of most experienced runner in the field. Although she’s not tasted victory since her first two starts, she has taken home a cheque at every race, albeit occasionally in small fields. It’s hard to see her making the huge step required to win here, as her last five have all been against ungraded company, and she’s taking on an even stronger class this week. On the plus side, she’s tackling the route for the first time, and in several of her recent clashes, she’s been finishing off as if she’d appreciate a bit further. Rudere is the first progeny of Fire in the Sun (Silver Ghost / Unbridled Song) an underachieving mare part owned by trainer cotevol, and is the result of a mating with Medaglia D’Oro. She’s at long odds for a good reason, but may not be as rough as her price would indicate.   

Leave the Pieces exits from barrier 3 and although she looks to be thrown in at deep end, highly respected trainer dixiedotco enjoys a stellar strike rate of 26% and would not be sending the filly around in this company without having been shown enough on the training track to instill confidence. After winning her maiden on debut, she jumped straight to Grade 3 company, and ran fifth of nine, holding her ground in the run home. Both her previous runs were over the six furlong trip, so she remains a total unknown over the route distance here. Leave the Pieces is a daughter of the ill-fated Saint Liam, from the trainer’s exclusive mare Rally Cry (War Chant / A.P. Indy), herself a winner of seven races. Jockey T.O’Shea is likely to be looking to angle across for a position on the fence, just behind Yamazakura, and if she gets the breaks in running, she could be in a position to issue a challenge when called upon.

Gate 4 is the starting position for Never Say Goodbye, a filly who, although facing black type opposition for the first time, is shaping as though she’s going to appreciate her racing more as the events become longer. Following three sprints, she stepped up to the mile at her fourth, and most recent run, seven weeks ago. Coming from near the rear on that occasion, she motored home strongly for second. Never Say Goodbye is a daughter of Holy Bull, the first foal of sdmforlife’s exclusive, triple stakes placed mare, Shoot to Thrill (Seeking the Gold / Northern Dancer). This is a much tougher task than any of her earlier races, but she has shown an ability to cover the extra ground, which gives her a tick many of her opponents are missing. Expect her to be amongst the rearward bunch in running, looking to do her best work at the business end of the race.

Stall 5 is the starting slot for Slithering, twice stakes placed from five starts, and a last start allowance winner in her first attempt at the mile. A maiden winner on debut, she stepped straight up to ungraded company for a fast closing second in a field of ten. The only glitch on her CV came in start number three, when elevated, perhaps to early to Grade 2 racing. Back to stakes for a slightly disappointing third, connections decided it was time to try further, resulting in a close, but impressive victory. Slithering is a daughter of Fantastic Light and Porcelain Posh (Danzig / Alysheba), a lightly raced winner of four from seventeen, part owned by the trainer / breeder batesy. A question mark still surrounds the filly regarding her ability to perform at this level, but she is losing nothing in the saddle with P. Ibrox taking the ride. She looks good value at the 11/1 on offer and merits plenty of consideration in a tough field.

Superstar Eight leaves from 6 and although she’s been unable to win since her scintillating debut effort, she showed enough at her fourth, and most recent run, to indicate that she may be underrated in her quest this week. Following her first race, where she defied her unfashionable breeding to record an impressive win at triple figure odds, she embarked on a stakes path, which has seen her unable to recapture that first-up form. Beaten six lengths in each of her second and third runs, she was switched to the dirt where her sole performance warrants a closer look. Racing over seven and a half furlongs, she was doing her best work late, making up good ground in the run home. Superstar Eight was scratchbred by trainer sein2912, using Superpower / Star Programmer / Octagonal and this overachieving young filly could well run a much better race than generally expected.

Tailor Made has drawn the 7, as she seeks to improve on an already outstanding juvenile season. A daughter of Rock of Gibraltar, from Taylor Made II, (Deputy Minister / Forty Niner), she’s doing her bit to contribute to an exceptional family. Mum was a Grade 1 winner and her only other progeny, American Trilogy (Smarty Jones) is stakes placed. Tailor Made has been to the races five times, and opened her black type winning account last start. After winning at maiden and allowance for her first two tries, she then ran consecutive seconds in The Desert Filly Juvenile – G3 and The Red Fish Blue Fish Stakes – G2, before that ungraded win five weeks ago. The skunkieluv owned and trained filly ticks all the boxes. Winner or runner-up every start. Winner over the mile against black type opposition. Top Rider (P. Jones – 26%) and highest rated runner. She’s the one they have to beat

Gate 8 will be occupied by How Apt, a daughter of Aptitude, from the well bred, moderately performed mare Dancing Deputy (Event of the Year / Deputy Minister), she’s the second, and clearly more talented get from gunsynd’s 100k earning winner of four from thirty one. She’ll run around at long odds this week as she hasn’t been posting times quite as impressive as many of her opponents, but she’s finished ITM in four of her five races, and with just the one blemish on the form page, she’s another who could be sneaking under the radar. After winning her maiden at her second start, How Apt then made short work of a small allowance field before struggling when elevated to stakes racing. Her most recent run was better, when stretched out to the mile. Her racing pattern suggests she’ll drop out, which may be a concern as she’ll have to try and overhaul some pretty smart fillies, but J. Jacobsson is a competent jockey, and he’ll give her every chance

Drawn in barrier 9 is Mixed Up Contender, a stakeswinning sprinter, she’s stepping up to the longer trip for the first time, as she visits the track for her ninth race. She’s yet another whose closing style suggests the extra distance should suit. Scratchbred using the inexpensive combination of Yankee Victor / Sham / Far Out East, she strung three wins together early in her career, culminating in a stakes victory in Queensland. happystabl kept her racing against the black type, despite a minor form slump, and was rewarded with a return to something like her best in her most recent run five weeks ago. Extended to seven furlongs, she made up many lengths in the run, to finish second, beaten just half a length. The fact that she is the longest priced runner in the race is testament to the depth of quality in this field. Assuming Mixed Up Contender has no difficulty with the extra furlong and a half, it would be no surprise to see D. Jacobbson making good late ground when it’s needed

Coldstone draws 10, another quality lennybred, she carries the blood of Dixieland Band / Blushing Groom / Pleasant Colony and is seeking her first graded win at this, her fifth career run. In the money at all four runs, she showed that she was ready for the black type with a strong second over this trip four weeks back. That followed a sharp class jump after she won her maiden at her third race, that her first at the mile. With a win and a second from two route starts and a last start speed rating which is the second highest on the form page, she looks remarkable value at 8/1. lenny26 has secured one of the best riders in M. Mason, and if Coldstone adopts her normal in-running position, two or three from the lead, she’ll be in the perfect position to surge over the final furlong

Aptitude Problem will line up in stall 11, and comes into this with current winning form, having taken out a rich allowance in Japan seven weeks ago in her first attempt at the mile. A question needs to be answered in regard to her class, as her seven races have produced four ITM finishes, with the three ‘flops’ all coming against black type company. Aptitude Problem is a daughter of Real Quiet from Just Jodie (Aptitude / Unbridled), a poorly performed former racer who went through seven different trainers during her career. winona seems to have found the key, as this breeding has already produced the most successful family member to date. She’s facing a solid test this weekend, but she’s one from one in routes, will be ridden by the competent S. Young and in a race which is shaping as a ‘Charge of the Light Brigade’ in the run home, she may well be among those making that late charge from the rear

Awesome Cuchi has been allotted barrier 12 and shares the top line in the early markets, due primarily to the sparkling speed rating returned in his most run, that 85 being the highest of any runner contesting this event. She’s been something of a nightmare for punters, running around at very short quotes in each of her four starts but, apart from her maiden debut, fading when the pressure has been applied late in her races. Awesome Cuchi carries superb blood, being by Awesome Again from the triple stakes winning, graded placed mare Kristi Yamicuchi (A.P. Indy / Mr. Prospector). The filly shares her stable with stakes placed half sister Cuchi Cat (Storm Cat), mother and daughters all owned by trainer / breeder beisbol. The class of Awesome Cuchi, and her family are beyond doubt, but I must admit to reservations this week, especially considering the shortish price available. She’s never tried the route before, she’s only won at maiden level, and she’s been left wanting at the end of shorter races. On the plus side is that last start speed rating, the ‘unknown’ at the longer trip and a quality jockey in A. Park, who will give his mount every opportunity to prove me wrong.

Symreality alights from stall 13. One of the more experienced runners this weekend, she’s coming to the races for the eighth time and is the only filly with a Graded victory on the scorecard, having greeted the judge in Dubai’s Desert Filly Juvenile – G3 at her fourth start. Sadly her three runs since that win have been disappointing, with the result that possibly the best credentialed runner in the race will be at a most backable 15/1 for this assignment. Symreality is a scratchbred daughter of Symboli Kris S / In Reality / Dr. Fager and produced plenty of excitement for owner breeder togaburt from the outset, finishing second, then first, in her two maiden runs. Elevated then to black type, she ran third of seven in an ungraded stakes, before her pinnacle performance. She needs to produce something special this weekend to try and recapture that run, perhaps she’s crying out for the route trip, which she has not attempted before. Unfortunately, current form makes it hard to view her chances with confidence.

Growling, from the outside gate rounds out the field, and as a black type winner, she’s being kept very safe in early markets. Although her last couple have left a bit to be desired, she’s still returning smart speed ratings every time she comes to the track. A winner of her first two, maiden and ungraded stakes, she then jumped straight to Grade 1 level to tackle The KY Horsemen Debutante. She was beaten nine lengths that day, but still took home a cheque against a full field. Her most recent run was both disappointing and encouraging. After turning for home in second spot in Portugal’s Little Momma Debutante – G3, four weeks ago, she eventually ran fifth, but as she held her ground in the run home, the return to the longer journey may be what she now needs. Growling is a daughter of Kingmambo, the first foal from Growl, a half million dollar earning, stakes winning, triple Grade 1 placed daughter of Forestry / Royal Academy. Bred by smilysmily, she’s a member of the super conglomerate, in the charge of super7. She is one of many chances in an open event

Summary: As is normal in Juvenile events, many runners are stepping up in class, just as many are testing the waters as far as distance is concerned. There is not a runner incapable of winning this race, but we’d better have a go at sorting them out. Only one runner ticks all the boxes. Sure, anyone can pick a favourite, but if, as I predict, Tailor Made is first home, that $12 win dividend is going to look easy in hindsight. Most of the field are likely to sit well off the pace, and that could leave an opening for an on pacer to set up a break in the run home. The most likely to do so is Coldstone, and I’m tipping her to hold off all but the winner. I wouldn’t be surprised if every runner looks some sort of chance in the run, with those flying from the back providing plenty of excitement. How Apt just nosing out the roughie, Mixed Up Contender for third.

The Odds Makers opinion:

5/1 – Yamazakura, Tailor Made, Awesome Cuchi

6/1 – Growling

8/1 – Coldstone

The Computer opinion:

Tailor Made – 14

Coldstone – 27

Symreality – 60

How Apt – 64

Mixed Up Contender – 98