Longshot Buba favored in GII SnowPhantom
The sixth edition of the Grade II SnowPhantom Appreciation Stakes features 13 colts and a filly looking for some graded glory and the winner’s share of the hefty $200k purse. The race, 7 furlongs on the the Iowa turf course, has a storied past. In 2005 it was won by General’s Chariot, who has dominated the turf sprint ranks this year and will likely go into the brand-new Breeder’s Bowl Turf Sprint as the #1 ranked horse in that division. The 2004 winner, My Miracles, is still running well but his only graded win to date was in this race. 2003’s winner, Bushiw, was another that won a graded in this race only. Same for the 2002 winner, Joseph’s Pride. You have to go back to 2002 to find a horse that won the SnowPhantom and a bunch of other graded races.
The stakes record is held by Secret Shot with a time of 1:21.2. The 8yo son of Seeking The Gold retired in 2001 with more than $2 million in earnings and six graded wins to his credit. Despite the short nature of the race, he closed from way back before winning by 2 1/2.
That style is unusual in SnowPhantom winners, however, as all other runnings have been won by frontrunners or on-the-pace horses. That would seem to indicate that any horse that wants to win from off the pace will need to put in a huge effort to pull off this win.
The rail horse is the field longshot at 20-1. Kolykovskzensky (try saying that 3 times fast!) has turned out to be a handy turf sprinter, but has yet to break through at the listed stakes level. This competition is a rather tough challenge for the Mayakovsky son to overcome. He has been improving speed figure-wise of late, but has yet to crack 95. Trainer fil must see something in this colt to suggest he belongs here, but on paper I can’t see this colt having much of an impact on the field.
The 2 horse is also getting little respect from the oddsmakers at 18-1. Ravenloft, trained by waremblem6, is a 3/4 sibling to graded-placed turf miler Transylvania. Ravenloft earned his blacktype two back at 6 furlongs with an excellent 102SP, but his next race (last time out) saw the Theatrical colt falter badly and lose by 12. He’s now trying graded company for the first time. I think that last race was a fluke, as all indications point to a colt maturing into a competitive sprinter/miler. Tends to come from the back of the pack, so betters shouldn’t worry if he’s 5+ lengths out at the half pole.
Staying On(FR) will hope apprentice jockey A Brant will stay on as they duo break from post 3. The Zindabad(FR) colt has accomplished quite a bit in his career with 5 wins, 5 places, and 3 thirds from 20 starts for more than $200k in earnings. He’s a multiple stakes winner and has tried graded company before when he was 2, but that didn’t end well. Oddly, Staying On has won at 6 and 7.5 furlongs, but at no other distances. In his two attempts at 7 furlongs, he ran second and fifth. It’s slightly worrisome that he hasn’t won on a firm track in over a year, but you never know. 15-1 odds.
A graded race just isn’t complete without a Barb entry. Wolverine sends forth Barb’s Ice Cream from Post 4. The Manndar colt will stand out in the field due to his eye-catching light gray coat. He’ll also stand out as settles at the back of the pack in preparation for a swift stretch run. After a beautiful debut maiden win in April 2005, Ice Cream has stayed in the stakes ranks quite successfully. Indeed, his worst performance (if you can call it that) as a 2yo was a fourth in the GIII Feeling Bad. This year Ice Cream started off well, racking up 3 stakes wins, but the last two races have been rather uncharacteristic in terms of placing but not speed figure. Last time out Ice Cream finished fourth by just a half-length with a 99SP at 7 furlongs. I like this horse in this race; he could step up really well here. 11-1 odds, but very bettable.
The lone filly in the field breaks from Post 5. Elfin Magic, a Sky Mesa filly out of a Charismatic mare, has the distinguishing characteristics of being ranked very highly in her division at #9. In 21 starts she’s won 8 races and amasses nearly $400k in earnings. Among her accomplishments are 5 stakes wins on turf, plus she’s stakes placed in dirt. This versatile filly is at 8-1 on the morning line and in my opinion actually deserves lower odds based on her recent brilliance. This is her first graded attempt, and trainer hot2trot must be feeling pretty confident. Her last two races were listed stakes at 7.5; she won both by 1 1/4 and 1 3/4 lengths. The drop back in distance shouldn’t be a problem; she’s gone 7 furlongs on turf three times with a pair of wins and a place to show for it. She really has to be included in any tri bet.
Another must-have entry in a good graded field is a Lenny horse. The trainer we hate to love (or is that love to hate?) sends forth Western Broad from the pbcash stable. The Gone West colt is among the more lightly raced in the field with just 11 starts, but 5 of those have resulted in wins, including a staked win at 7.5. His last start saw him lose a stake by just 3/4 of a length, but the 103SP had to make his trainer quite confident that this colt is going to be a really good one. Broad has tried a graded stake in the GI Kill Wayne And Show His Body two starts back, but i suspect the mile distance simply proved to be too long. This distance should be just right. 10-1 odds. If you want to bet this race, this guy deserves a second look.
Add in a super horse or two, and the race is just about complete. Raktavija runs out of the super16 barn and is scheduled to start from Post 7. The Awesome Again colt has seven wins from 17 starts including 5 listed stakes wins, but has yet to finish better than second in a stake. That second was a heartbreaker of a loss as Raktavija was just a nose away from winning the GII Joisey Stakes at 7 furlongs. With 4 speed figures of 100 this year, Raktavija has a clear speed edge over most of the field. He’ll try to capitalize on that by staying just off the pacesetter and stealing the win at the wire. At 6-1 odds, he the second betting choice.
Super’s other entry in the field will load in the gate right next to Raktavija. Conspirator, a Lemon Drop Kid colt, is trained out of the super10 stable. The colt spent his 2yo year on the dirt with some success, and began 2006 on the dirt as well. However, as it became clear he wasn’t continuing to improve with age, the Super folks tried a little surface switch magic, and what do you know, it worked. He’s now had five trips on the lawn, and finished top 3 every single time including picking up a pair of wins. Two back Conspirator tried a turf stakes and finished third going 7.5 furlongs. It was a lifetime high 103SP, so it appears that some stiffer competition may be to the horse’s liking. He’ll get it here. Watch for Conspirator to hang out midpack for the first half of the race. 10-1 odds.
Post 9 will briefly hold bigtate02’s entry, Bigtate Fort. The Catienus colt just won a pair of NWRC restricted stakes at 6.5 furlongs which were his first wins in over a year. Both races represented lifetime high speed figures, which indicates either a two-time fluke or a colt hitting his best stride. I tend believe the latter explanation. he’s a deep closer, so it’ll be interesting to see which closer claims the back-of-the-pack status in this race. The tight running schedule (lots of races spaced at 2 and 3 weeks) does slightly worry me, but the recent big improvement also makes me wonder if we have a new Ray of Pye-type in Bigtate Fort. 19-1 odds, but a new lifetime high SP and a minor placing isn’t out of the question.
Laffit Pincay Jr. will break from Post 10. Elranchoti’s Bahri colt has a lot to do to live up to the legacy of his namesake. His last race, a 7.5 furlong allowance, saw Junior run second by 1 1/2 with an eyepopping 104SP. If he can duplicate that kind of effort in this race, this could be an awesome race. Junior does have a single stakes win to his credit (at 7.5 furlongs) but that was in his second start as a 2yo; since then he’s been able to no better than third in a stakes*, although he did pull off a pair of allowance wins. Possible spoiler, but more likely to get a minor placing than a major one. 14-1 odds.
The field favorite’s moniker is a misnomer. Longshot Buba is the 9-2 morning line favorite for trainer iansplugs. Buba is a Cee’s Tizzy colt shipping in from Europe. Despite having earned the title of 31 in his division, he’s looking to pick up a few more stakes points to solidify his upcoming Breeders Bowl Turf Sprint bid. Fresh off a win by a nose win in the GI Never Ready, Buba’s speed figures are so much higher than the rest of the field that he would only need to run a for-him average number to still win by a solid length. Pretty much unbeatable absent a major upset.
The 12 horse represents an interesting training move. Zanzabar(IRE), trained out of the peeps8 barn, makes his first ever start sprinting after racking up accolades routing. The son of Galileo(IRE) won the GIII Dracula at a mile earlier this year, and ran a big 104SP in winning the Smackdown at a mile. His earnings if almost half a million are from five wins and a place in 12 starts. He’s also a stakes winner at 8.5. Zanzabar can win on the lead or from near the pace, which is a versatility most other horses in this field can’t claim. The drop to 7 furlongs shouldn’t be so huge that Zan can’t pull off a win, and he should try the sprint sometime, so why not here?
Dcsharks sends Sharks Oleander out of the 13 post. The Olmadovar colt has three wins on the year including a stakes victory at this distance in February. His most recent win was two back at 6.5 furlongs where he ran a lifetime high 98SP. Probably a bit too slow to run top-3, but he could run well enough for a minor placing. He;s consistent enough in allowance company to cash a check regularly, that should translate over to this race. Only question is the class – he’s never tried graded company before. Competitive in listed company, however, so he really can’t be discounted. 13-1 odds.
The far outside post belongs to Nureyera(IRE), a Grandera colt. He’ll be wearing the lightbulb silks of LordPye’s dixieracer stable. Nureyera is a dual surface winner with a pair of turf stakes wins. He also has the distinction of being the only horse in the field to have beaten older horses. Two starts back he popped a huge 106SP at 7.5 furlongs in an allowance, and four starts back posted a 100 in a 7 furlong stake. Nice horse, good turf sprinter, but has yet to break through at the level. He’s tried graded twice finishing sixth and fourth. Will it be a second this time? Nureyera hasn’t won on the lead on turf since his debut race; since then any time he’s had the lead before heading into the stretch he’s tired too much to win. Watch for him to start a bit slowly to conserve energy, then to slowly work his way through the field. 9-1 odds.
So who do I like? The filly, Elfin Magic, impresses me as one who could handle the boys. Western Broad is another who seems poised to break out with a huge race. Zanzabar looks dangerous if he transitions well to under a mile. Longshot Buba looks like the clear winner, however.
* Junior’s third place in the stakes this year was in the Faster N Glue Memorial. I owned Faster N Glue for a couple of years, and hadn’t realized that the old guy had a race named for him. See? Benefit to writing for the BTB. You get to see a lot more races that you might otherwise.