Stars of today, or stars of tomorrow?

Welcome to the first race preview of week 2993! Today in California we have a >>disgustingly<< strong field of 14 to serve as springboard to fame and fortune…or back to the drawing board. The particulars: North Fork Stakes Grade II $225,000 One mile Two-year olds. The SIM Racing Office could not have asked for a better mix of 2yo colts who will try to pad their resumes and solidify a berth in the Breeder’s Bowl 5 weeks from today. We’ll give you the participant summaries from the rail out, with a touch of speculation on how they might perform and what lies ahead for these promising juveniles, all. #1 The fact that a Graded Stakes winner such as SYN CITY is the longest shot on the board at 22-1 tells you how tough this race is! More experienced on turf, but has a lifetime best speed figure on dirt at a huge price in the Grade I Horsehead Juvenile. Sprint pedigree figures to catch up with him in that last 1/8th of a mile, but xxxstable couldn’t have asked for a better post position for the versatile speedster. Could light up the trifecta again today with a smart trip. #2 Veteran trainer burnin sends out a speedy son of Rainbow Quest and the Fappiano mare Fappulus named WHY CAN’T I. Who says you can’t? Pedigree says he could be “any kind”, with lots of stamina and turf influences, although he seems to prefer dirt so far in his career and has a penchant for getting out of the gate and going early. Lacks experience at this level but has not been challenged of late and may try to take this one wire-to-wire. Longshot special play at 18-1. #3 ADHESIVE is the first foal of Daily Dreamer by noted route sire Cozzene, and he lived up to that promise with an easy front-running score in his first two-turn try. Thebaker2 homebred is undefeated outside of Graded Stakes company and hasn’t missed by much in those efforts, all sprints. His tactical speed and the right to improve with age & distance might produce a sticky situation for his competitors. Big time sleeper (I’d bet him!) at 9-1. #4 GHOSTLY DEBUT indeed scared away the competition in his first performance, steadily improving as trainer lasthope increases the distance. Solid stalking 3rd in Graded debut last out, but other runners from that group (Kentucky Horsemen Juvy) showing mixed results. Superbly-bred half to MSW Saisir Le Batteur certainly wouldn’t surprise with a money finish today. Well rested (8 weeks) and well connected (26% trainer and 20% jock)…well, why not? 14-1 is quite a bargain. #5 DON’TTOUCHMYGOLD Promising wfstables3 charge is lightly seasoned with just 2 lifetime starts, but was second to undefeated Taxi Driver, whose future plans are still unknown. Slightly discouraged with the drop in speed figures, but he ran evenly that day and his running style should come in handy in this bunch. Chestnut son of Touch Gold and Thestormispassing doesn’t get his regular rider today, but is co-favorite nonetheless at 7-1. #6 WARCHILD Dangerous looking son of Mineshaft out of Confiscated(IRE) is also bred to be any kind, and he appears to be the fast kind. Flashed speed going short, but exploded on the stretch-out to a mile when dropping into allowance company, earning a field’s best 92 SP. Ships down from N. California for tihsho, who saddles the 7-1 co-favorite in his Graded Stakes debut (the horse, not the trainer!) #7 AMERICAN WEREWOLF Steadily improving Storm Cat trainee from the kensei barn is also making his Graded Stakes debut today off a serious of successful efforts at lesser-known tracks. Came from well off the pace to defeat two stake winners at a route, but the fact that a maiden ran second strikes me as a little ‘hairy’. I shouldn’t be one to ‘bark at the moon’…it’s hard to know what you’ve got at this level, since Pico Pequeno(BRZ) became my first juvy stakes winner off 2 losing efforts that pale in comparison to this guy’s win. Would not be a surprise, and the race sets up for him. Plenty of cash for a ‘silver bullet’ at 8-1. #8 BOLD LAKE is hard-knocking, late-charging sprinter with just one poor race on his form. He dominated an “almost a mile” stake at Oklahoma last time out, but will face the proverbial “pedigree questions” today in spite of his deep closer status. Momma (Seattle’s Bid) was a dirt sprinter too, winning stakes at the ripe-old age of 5, so manostable knows he has a future with this one. Another with upside at 14-1. #9 MORPH THE CAT doesn’t need to change much, he’s nearly perfect from 5 starts with 3 wins and two very-close seconds. Grade III winning daughter of Cat Thief and Personal Seek has a beautiful pedigree for the flat mile but has never been beyond 6 ½ furlongs. He always finishes well for trotter 2, and figures to be dangerous on or near the front end. 7-1 co-favorite and my hunch bet on the stretch-out (hope I don’t jinx ya!) #10 GRIMLOCK slides in as the 14th qualifier out of 14 nice-looking youngsters. Morning line makes him 7-1 with only two starts under his belt, probably earning the CPU adulations due to his monster pedigree (Gone West, Seattle Slew, Alydar, they’re OK I guess…!!!). Very nice effort last time for your 2nd race ever, but he set the pace and was beaten 4 lengths by #6 horse WARCHILD. Will not have an easy lead today, so needs to improve drastically unless padrebri has a trick up the sleeve. One of the few underlays at 7-1. #11 CAT FIVE CYCLONE comes screaming into California off an impressive 2nd in the Grade III Buckeye Juvenile. Form had been spotty in previous starts against ultra-tough company, but the precocious ydracing3 scratch-bred proved he can get the distance and then some. Simcox (15%) aboard will try to turn the tables on future arch-rival #4 GHOSTLY DEBUT. Logical contender at 8-1. #12 SOUTH MELBOURNE(NZ) has done little wrong in a 5 race career, the lone misstep being his dirt debut in Dubai…try saying that ten times fast. May have moved up with the slop last time in a come-from-the-clouds allowance victory, but susanna’s Zabeel(NZ) / Skadar colt is bred to handle the gamut of surfaces. A little light in the speed figures so far, but this is the age where they can improve in a hurry. Likely superfecta player, he’s 18-1. #13 RATTLE MY CHAIN(AUS) is the star of Encosta De Lago’s 2yo crop this year and by far the best product from the seveii-bred Ballesteros, and her (he)dam Forty Shin. Their success on main courses may explain why this son of a turf speed sire is the #1 ranked 2yo in the SIM’s sprint dirt division. His powerful stalking/closing style, which he uncorked to win the Grade I Horsehead Juvenile at 7 furlongs, may have been compromised by the lack of early speed in his last start (a decent 4th at Grade I level). Naysayers will point to the increased distance as his ‘downfall’, but I don’t believe the verdict is out yet on whether or not he’ll stay on. Post position is not optimal, but he’s got enough talent to pull it off. High-flying jock Gossett(23%) gets the mount for dereen5073, 7-1 on the board and the horse to beat before the gates open. #14 MR. DAYTIME TED was expecting to face adversity in his Grade Stakes debut, but rolled snake-eyes at the entry box getting the extreme-outside and the division leader on his flank. Veteran stable good appears to be just that as this guy easily scored in his first effort around two turns at the always tricky Nevada racecourse. A lot of obstacles to overcome, but the Daylami(IRE) scratch bred is coming to hand at the right time, and can be a factor in the right scenario today. Another value play at 17-1. It’s been quite a while since I’ve written about, let alone seen a race as competitive and utterly unpredictable as this one! A salty bunch, to be sure. Anyone who does well here is likely to solidify a spot in the Breeders Bowl, and if not, I’d look for them to clean up in whatever race that follows. On the reasonable success of my picks in New South Wales last week (my picks ran 1-2-4), I’ll take a stab at the juvies. ADHESIVE is my tepid pick. There’s a bunch of reasonable speed in here, but he showed versatility in conserving some energy last time and won’t need things to fall into his lap to have a chance coming for home. He’s improved with each start, and similar advancement could bring him home today. WARCHILD is another fast one who switched gears last time and showed he can do it from behind as well. I love his pedigree for this time of year and he’d be my top pick if it weren’t for the unknown class factor.
MORPH THE CAT can’t be ignored exactly because of his class, he hasn’t been beaten a length yet, and has only the untried distance as his obstacle. RATTLE MY CHAIN(AUS) looks less intimidating saddled with that unlucky 13 hole but figures to be in the mix when they hit the stretch. SOUTH MELBOURNE(NZ) is an intriguing prospect, if they pull a “Spanish Chesnut” on us, then he’s your “Giacomo”. You know what I’m sayin’!!!