The Bob Woodward Memorial
With the Breeders’ Bowl Classic looming, no trainer wants to have a stable full of question marks. Yet every horse in our field this week seems to have a question to answer. Can last year’s winner of this race, Unprecedented, shave a year off his career and run back to that winning performance? Can morning-line favorite, Scoobs Connection, win a race going this far? Can Tempest show that his sensational win in the G-2 Abraham Lincoln Handicap wasn’t a once-in-a-lifetime performance? Can Twist Of Lemon run a big race outside the state of California? I’ll be frank. I know the answer to none of these questions — that’s why they run the race. But let’s give you all a look at our contenders as we try to sort it out.
1 Tell Me When To Go (romeshome) – Medaglia D’ Oro colt is the longest shot on the board and is also one of two three-year olds in the field and, like our other three-year old, Al Hirt, he’s tackling his elders for the first time this week. He did manage to finish ahead of Al Hirt in the G-1 Princess Stakes back in June, but that also happens to be the only occasion he’s managed to fire a triple digit speed figure and asking him to top that effort against this veteran bunch just seems to be asking too much. He does have some speed in what’s shaping up to be a pretty paceless affair, so jock’s best bet may be to gun for the front and hope for the best…
2 Act Of God (lenny13) – Gotta believe he really enjoyed the sloppy track he got in winning the G-1 Gotta Fix The Sprinklers Classic, because all attempts in winning G-1’s on fast tracks this year have resulted in dismal results — such as his latest G-1 adventure when he never found his stretch kick and finished tenth in the G-1 CA Classic. Empire Maker four-year old’s only other wins this year came in allowance races as a heavy favorite. Good news is the name is appropriate — he may well need an Act Of God to help him get back to the winner’s circle this week…
3 I Come To Play (IRE) (chibound2) – Big effort last out in the G-2 Insulin Cap snapped a three race streak of off the board finishes and he also topped Tempest in that race and that one looks like a contender in here. His G-1 efforts have been nearly as dismal as Act Of God’s and he actually finished behind that one in the aforementioned G-1 Gotta Fix The Sprinklers Classic. Losing three in a row as badly as he did doesn’t really say much for his consistency and he hasn’t strung together a pair of good back-to-back efforts since May, so it’s kind of hard to imagine he can step up in class and fire another big shot this week.
4 Hemisphere (IRE) (volcano) – Montjeu (IRE) five-year old is ambitiously placed this week to say the least — started off the year with five straight allowance appearances (three wins) and prepped for this with a third place effort against minor stakes types — neither of those foes that finished ahead of him that day have tried G-1 company. He’s posted triple digit speed figures in his last three, but they’re still not high enough to scare these away and it’s not like he earned any of them against the kind of field he’s got to take on this week.
5 Celtic Legend (FR) (correction) – Quite possibly even more ambitiously placed than Hemisphere (IRE) — only win of the year came on turf and in allowance company, so how does he find himself in a G-1 on the dirt? Did he take a wrong turn? This is only his fourth start on the dirt, so it’s possible he’s still got some upside — actually, on the other hand, he’s seven years old… not so sure about that upside angle anymore. It be a great story if the old guy could bring it home, but the realist in me believes it just ain’t going to happen…
6 Sinanju (frosty) – Another closer who failed to fire in the G-1 CA Classic and that’s a bit of a head-scratcher because he ran a big, big race over that track back in March in the G-1 California Handicap. And therein lies the problem — that race was back in March. Followed that up with the brutal trip to Dubai and ever since the return stateside he’s found it difficult to run those triple digit speed figure races as often as he once had and he’s missed the board in three of his last five. He did win a G-1 in July, but the speed figure earned that day certainly wouldn’t get him the win in here. He’s like many in here who could jump up and surprise, but he’s also tough to recommend based on his recent bout with inconsistency…
7 Scoobs Connection (lilscoobi) – The morning-line favorite has won nearly half his starts and has posted big speed figures in his last two, so you know he’s good and ready for this… but he’s not a stone-cold lock either. He’s never won a race longer than a mile and, in fact, he’s never even hit the board going this distance. If your money was on him, wouldn’t you like to see at least one win at this distance? Or even one on the board finish at this distance? Respect what he’s done, but can’t endorse him until he shows he really wants to run this far…
8 Al Hirt (zooomr) – Our other three-year old in the field is coming off a so-so effort in the G-1 Travelers Stakes (despite a career best speed figure) and he’s got the same problem as Tell Me When To Go — speed figures that wouldn’t get him anything more than another so-so result this week and the improbability that he can improve on them because he’s facing elders for the first time. He’s a nice horse who’ll win his share of races, but if he can’t win G-1’s against his own generation, I don’t see how he can win them against older horses…
9 Squal Me Halo (binzaman) – It appears his best is behind him — he’s closing in on two million in earnings, but much of that was earned last year as a three-year old when he won three G-1 races. Two of those victories came back-to-back just over a year ago with identical 110 speed figures, but this year he’s only been able to duplicate that number in a pair of minor stakes races, both of which account for his only trips to the winner’s circle in 2006. He’s lost his last two G-1’s by a combined 34 lengths, but there is one ray of light to point out — he might just be quickest out of the gates in this field and probably has only Tell Me When To Go to wrestle the lead from… a gate-to-wire try might be an option for this guy too.
10 Unprecedented (jockeymax) – You can excuse the last when he tried turf, but it’s not like he was lighting it up on the main track either. He’s had a nice career (a G-1 win in three different years) and he’s also last year’s winner of this race, but that really appears to be the only reason he belongs in here this week — he’s finished seventh or worse in four straight and the speed figures have been rapidly traveling south ever since his last win (in G-1 company) back in May. Runner-up that day returned to finish twelfth and seventh in back-to-back G-1’s and now makes his living running in minor stakes… which is probably where this guy should be.
11 Tempest (oscar) – A repeat of his effort in the G-2 Abraham Lincoln Handicap two back takes this with ease and he likes nine furlongs, but he was upset as the favorite last out by I Come To Play (IRE) in another G-2. Has a chance to exact some revenge this week, but this is also his first G-1 start of the year and his last three G-1’s (albeit against tough company) resulted in tenth, eleventh, and twelfth place finishes. He’s not going to get beat by nine or ten horses this week, but he’s also not a given to run back to the big try in Illinois either. Long story short, he is another closer in a field full of them, but he’s been more consistent than most and that makes him a contender…
12 Fly For Buda (gg) – A Triple Crown contender last year and the Middle Jewel winner really hasn’t fared well against these types of late — he’s missed the board in his last four outings against G-1 types and was last of them all in his only attempt this year. Recent speed figures are better than most (back-to-back 110’s prior to the Abraham Lincoln) of these and, despite the fact that he finished well behind Tempest in his big race two back, that makes him a bit of a contender… to fill out the trifecta or superfecta.
13 Slither (peeps6) – Regally-bred son of Deputy Minister is the highest finisher in the often mentioned G-1 CA Classic to turn up in here and that alone should make him a contender in your book. He tried this race last year and finished sixth behind Unprecedented, but he came into that race with a thirteenth place finish in the G-1 CA Classic, so he’s coming into this a great deal sharper and that’s a commodity a lot of these can’t fall back on. Another who finds himself in the mix this week…
14 Twist Of Lemon (theaxell) – Third behind Slither in California and really it was a pretty productive trip out west for this four-year old by Lemon Drop Kid. He won the G-1 Movieland Shiny Cup out there as well with a big speed figure of 112. Is it possible he’s just a horse-for-the-course out there? Prior to the western sojourn, he’d never posted a speed figure higher than 102 (including four straight 102’s earlier this year) and, like I said, he’s four-years old now — is it possible a four-year old making his thirtieth start this week, this late in the year could be hitting a new stride? Perhaps his early turf attempts preserved his legs a bit… if you believe he found a fountain of youth out in California, then he’s another contender.
Selections – 11 – 13 – 12