Irish Invade New South Wales? Grade II Early Months Stakes

Straight to the chase – we’ve got a nice race at 10 furlongs on the turf, 350k purse, and the Grade II credentials that come along with it. A staggering six of the eleven horses entered were sired by Irish-bred stallions and no, this is not another silly owner-restricted contest! Who’s running, you ask?

PP1 Fuzzy Magic 5/1

Seven wins for this son of Kingmambo and the GIII winning mare Mammoth Fuzz, he just missed last out in a Grade II in New York…on the dirt. A bit of fuzzy logic employed today as he is winless in three tries on the grass, but its hard to argue with a trainer like cream stable, who wins at an impossible 21% rate from a mind-boggling 1353 career starts. Talent and skill are there, but the turf factor makes him a wildcard at this level.

PP2 First Refusal(IRE) 5/1

Back-to-back training giants in the inside stalls as theatrical (19% win-rate, trainer of HOF’er School Kris(GB)) sends out the balanced first foal of Refuse to Bend(IRE) and the funster2 mare Audi Five K. This guy is no stranger to the surface and distance having 5 consecutive 10F(T) starts, with two straight stakes wins for good measure. Still trying to crack the exacta in Graded company, but is certainly the consistent sort who you’d expect to show up and run well. A definite player.

PP3 Darkdoun(IRE) 9/1

Scratch-bred Galileo(IRE) colt from the peepsclaim barn has a front-running Grade II victory at 12 furlongs to go along with his allowance wins at 6 ½ an seven-eighths of a mile. It’s that whole in-between distance part that we’re confused about! Recent form is iffy, but he’s got speed and a pedigree that says “no problem”. With an Irish accent, of course. Intriguing price-play.

PP4 Orographic Rain 16/1

Fan-favorite inzy sends out this versatile Mountain Cat colt who traces his roots to a mare named Rainbow Former and the he-mare Exeter Ollie. “OR” hasn’t been facing Graded company of late, and is winless in 9 months despite two nice seconds in as many starts…so we’ll assume he’s coming around but isn’t ready to tackle this tough field yet. Non-Irish pace factor.

PP5 Hitman 5/1

Charmer scratch-bred is super-fast and tough on the grass, a son of the unlikely turf sire Strike The Gold. He may be the proverbial “speed of the speed” in this bunch, but he’ll be trying 10 furlongs and Graded company for the first time, always a tough mark to rub out. It could be all-or-nothing if he’s loose on the lead or in a dogfight, respectively. Solid chance but little betting value at the price.

PP6 Weena’s Mission(IRE) 9/1

Interesting roscoe homebred is by Century City(IRE) out of an original CPU mare named Mango Seattle, who actually shows a SIM race in 1998. Stakes-winner is also half to the promising unbeaten 2yo Neuschwanstein(IRE). Even with a German name, you get an Irish-bred horse! Anyway, this one popped a huge speed fig last out in a flat mile stake, but looks like the extra ¼ mile is beyond his scope. Past-performances say “not today”, but “past-performances are not always indicative of future results”.

PP7 HR De Fond 7/1

Chateau Royal is the name of this scratch-bred stakes winner, the verified stable star of the hracinggem barn. “Chateau Royal” means “Royal Castle”…so why didn’t they just name him that?  I have no idea what “HR De Fond” means, but this is a good horse with 8 and 9 furlong credentials that seems to hit the wall going 10. Slight underlay on the tote-board, but bet him next time out.

PP8 Town Prince(IRE) 4/1

Quitter certainly didn’t give up too many breeding points when the scratch-bred son of Ballingarry(IRE) was conceived, but to say the price was a bargain is a major understatement. #7 ranked turf-classic specialist reeled off three straight stakes wins, including a Grade I, before succumbing to division toppers Skills In Magic and Creepshow last time out at Arlington. Not exactly a lightweight. If class and form hold up, he’s the one to look expect in the winner’s circle. But there’s always an if. Deserving favorite, and the horse to beat.

PP9 Rosenthal(IRE) 10/1

Sick of seeing the (IRE) yet? Get used to it! This simsters scratch-bred Rock of Gibraltar(IRE) colt predictably excels at the distance. He’s been well spotted career-wise to date, but does not have a stakes win or a three-digit speed figure despite two 4th’s in Grade I company. Had the lead on Town Prince last time out and fought well into the stretch, but the pace scenario hurts him again today. Longshot special!

PP10 Fried Poke Chops(IRE) 10/1

Earsronny is the proud owner of another Rock of Gibraltar(IRE) colt out of the mare Perfect Crime, and yes, this guy likes the distance as well. What sets him apart in this group is that he is a bona-fide closer in a race loaded with early speed. Conventional logic tells us that things should set up for him in this race. Conventional logic also tells us that it may be hard to watch a race and shout “C’mon, Fried Poke Chops!” while maintaining a straight face. Rock solid show bet will be sizzling late (sizzling…fried…bacon…pork? Nevermind.)

PP11 Freeze(NZ) 36/1

Saddled with the widest-of-all slot is the coolly-named Freeze(NZ), a scratch bred Zabeel(NZ) colt who gets a few Irish points in here for being out of a Barathea(IRE) mare. One win in three starts is not a typical Grade II resume, but that one win was a doozy…it was the first ever for new trainer aggots. Congratulations! His stablemate Sinister Widow, a promising 2yo by Spinning World provided the second win for the barn, no small feat considering the SIM leftovers you get in your new stable. Freeze(NZ) got frozen by older horses in his stakes debut last race, but probably has a lot more speed than he showed on two-weeks rest. Look for nice things to come, despite tough draw today.

Well, there you have it. I’m going to put my reputation on the line and say an Irish-bred horse is gonna win this one. Yoss’s tipsheet likes Town Prince(IRE), Hitman, First Refusal(IRE), and Weena’s Mission(IRE). I like Town Prince(IRE), First Refusal(IRE), Fried Poke Chops(IRE), and Rosenthal(IRE).

And I’m not even Irish.