Top Turf Colt Creepshow Headlines Swedish Grade 2

Sweden this week showcases The Jockey Club Classic, over the turf mile for three year olds. This Grade 2 event carries a purse of $300,000 and features a tough but fascinating field of thirteen. The club has scored a major coup here, having enticed the top ranked classic turf colt, Creepshow, to cross the pond. Ordinarily having such a highly regarded runner headlining the race would mean a short priced favourite and perhaps a stifled betting affair. But on this occasion, there are a couple of question marks surrounding the topliner, as he seeks to recover the awesome form which elevated him to his current position. There is a very smart field of primarily up and comers looking to topple the favourite, but as none of them is ranked within a dozen spots of the leader, they will all be hoping for, rather than expecting the victory.

The Jockey Club Classic has been conducted annually here at Ascot since 2000, and the roll of honour reads:

2000 – Old Disco – pontiff – 1.36.2 – 98 – retired winning $480k.

2001 – Lepaca Drakon – sabbath – 1.34.2 – 118 – retired winning $920k.

2002 – Big Cat Diary – bigarnie – 1.34.2 – 118 – retired winning $1 million

2003 – Medusa’s Blood As – ascoteer – 1.34.0 – 119 – active winner of $1.2 million

2004 – Samaniego – layeguada – 1.34.4 – 116 – retired winning $800k

2005 – Neon Swan – db – 1.34.4 – 109 – active winner of $510k

Let’s work through the formguide for this year’s renewal:

Frosting has drawn the inside gate, and that’s about the end of the good news for deeprock10’s scratchbred daughter of Charge Forward / Little Current / Rubiton. The only filly in race, she’s the longest priced runner, she hasn’t won in her last five starts, and the win just before that, her second, was in an allowance NW1x. Looking for positives, her best ever speed rating was over these conditions, but that was at least a second and a half shy of the time likely to be posted in this race which includes many proven graded level performers.

Sadler’s Prospect draws 2, a superbly bred son of Sadler’s Wells, based on Hidious Prospect, the twice stakes placed, perks2 exclusively trained son of Mr. Prospector / Habitat. He too appears to be flying too high this weekend, as he makes the jump from allowance racing to a Grade 2 race featuring a couple of Grade 1 quality runners. He has put in a couple of decent performances against the black type opposition and he boasts an impressive strike rate of five wins from eighteen. There’s an unusual mix in this high quality race, as many of the starters are on the up and are also taking what appear to be huge leaps in class, however, as Sadler’s Prospect has only once returned a triple digit speed rating, and he’d probably need to shave about five lengths off his previous best to be any chance of figuring in the finish, it’s difficult to get too excited about his chances.

Creepshow alights from stall 3. Currently ranked # 1 in this division, he automatically becomes the target for all other trainers and jockeys on two fronts. Firstly, everyone likes beating # 1, but more importantly, everyone loves beating lenny. Those lining up against him may take a touch of comfort from the fact that he hasn’t maintained the devastating form which saw him string together three Grade 1 victories to kick start his 2006 season, but he’s earned his current elevated position by consistently performing against the best, and comes into this off his closing second in Illinois’ Big Red Stakes – G1 five weeks ago. He likes to drop out, so the return to the shorter trip of a mile may also give the competition something to ponder, hoping he now needs further, but facts remain facts. He’s number one because he’s more than good. Creepshow is a son of Rock of Gibraltar, from lenny’s part owned mare Deputy Flanders (Deputy Minister / Seeking the Gold), a winner of six races.

Gate 4 will be occupied by Rattleshirt, by More Than Ready from the exceptional broodmare Western Stormer (Storm Cat / Gone West), who has produced two stakeswinners and one graded placed runner from three to the track. Interestingly the mare has not been used this year, so there may be a rush come October. The most inexperienced of the thirteen runners this weekend, he lines up for just the tenth time, and looks to be capable of some more natural improvement. Striking a purple patch earlier in the year, breeder trainer stormborn2 worked him through the conditions, winning his maiden, two allowances and a stakes race within five starts. His last couple have been a tad below par, but he’s recently recorded a 1.35 for the mile, so if he can improve a couple of lengths on that, he should be in with a solid chance.

Drawn in barrier 5 is To Die For, a son of Theatrical, based on zewango2’s lightly raced (one win from just nine starts) Devil Dancer (Seeking the Gold / Saratoga Six). Although most of his racing has been done at a slightly lower level, two starts ago he stepped up to the plate in the very strangely titled The Kill Wayne and Show his Body Special – G1, over these conditions, and after jumping to front and setting up a huge lead, he held on gamely to hold off the super empire’s Spare T, with daylight between them and the rest of the field. On that run alone he deserves plenty of respect here, and since all his victories have been pillar to post, it’s certain that quality jockey M. Mason will be searching for the early lead. With nothing drawn inside him likely to challenge for the rail, To Die For may be able to set the pace for the race and may prove very difficult to run down.

Stall 6 is the starting position for Brabastorm,   Breeding doesn’t come any better than this. brabant enjoyed enormous success with Grade 1 winner Brabawells (Sadler’s Well’s / A.P. Indy) before sending him to the gender altering vet, and then on to Storm Cat. Although he’s yet to taste victory against black type opposition, his three podium finishes have all come in stakes races. His recent runs have been impressive enough for the bookmakers to install him as equal favourite here, a huge compliment in itself as they regard him an equal chance with a colt who has three Grade 1 victories on the CV. As with virtually the entire field, there are question marks facing Brabastorm, not the least may be race tactics. Although he’s shown he doesn’t need to lead to win, front running is his normal caper. If he and To Die For, drawn immediately inside, become involved in a dogfight for the early lead, they may cut each other up and allow the closers to cruise by. There are many possible scenarios in this event, with To Die For featuring as a major threat in most of them.

Barrier 7 is the starting position for Libertine, who earned a start in this with a blistering allowance win in Illinois four weeks ago, stopping the clock in 1.34.6, and returning a speed rating of 106. Although stakes placed as a juvenile, his recent racing has suggested a future in the allowance ranks, but that most recent run was more in tune with the performances which could reasonably be expected from his breeding. A son of the gender altered Storm Slithering, a winner of eight black type races, El Prado was assigned the responsibility of maintaining the quality of the pre-existing A.P Indy / Storm Cat lines. He’s one of several who, at first glance, appear to be facing a huge jump in class when tackling the head of the division, but as his racing style is fairly versatile, there’s every chance that the breaks may go his way and the super14 trained colt may well be in there with the contenders as the wire approaches.

Tete Razamanaz, from gate 8, is stepping up to this following his fourth allowance win last start, exhausting his restricted allowances at just his fourteenth start. With his only previous appearance in a black type race seeing him finish on the podium, there seems little doubt that he is destined to make the promotion to the higher level. Based on Tete Rossa (Testa Rossa / Sky Classic), a winner of ten races, he is a son of Zabeel. Is he one of the final class of Tete’s? Are the Nasu’s just a temporary thing? Will ‘Nasu’ ever strike fear and determination into the hearts of opponents as ‘Tete’ has for years? Who Knows? And it’s hardly relevant in discussions surrounding this race anyway. Tete Razamanaz will surely add yet another name to the racelord list of black type horses. Perhaps not this week, as it may be a bit early to be taking on what is essentially a Grade 1 field, but I’d never be brave enough to tell an Eclipse award winning trainer of the year that his horse couldn’t win.

Sea All Star will line up in stall 9.  dvtkat1 sent his well bred underperforming maiden, All Star Sea (Lyphard / Seattle Slew), to Sahm for this, her third and to date, by far the most successful mating. A multiple stakeswinner earlier in the year, his current form has dropped off a tad, and as a result he runs around at long odds in this. His biggest problem here is the fact that he will need to provide a personal best, and that best will need to be many lengths better than he’s ever done, as he’s never rated better than mid 90’s. This race is almost sure to be over in less than 1.35.0, with the winner nudging 110.  

Ghetto Muppet, from Gate 10 is by Rock of Gibraltar, from Stop Nop and Roll, an elnop ‘exclusive’ stakeswinning daughter of Zabeel / Polar Falcon, and comes into this with a formline containing something most of his opposition seems to be lacking. Solid, consistent, recent form over these conditions. We’ll ignore his run in Georgia two starts back on a rain affected track, and concentrate solely on his mile turf runs. Since late last year he’s won an ungraded stake to close out his juvenile season, won another three starts back, then finished a half length second in The Try the Wine – G3, four weeks ago. Every runner here has a question mark. Creepshow is not racing at his peak, equal favourite Brabastorm is unproven against this standard, and many of the others are taking huge leaps in class. Ghetto Muppet ticks more boxes than most, he can almost be assured of running a top race, and looks to represent very good value at a generous price.

Northern Wells will line up in barrier 11. Scratchbred by jockeymax, using War Chant / Seattle Slew / Buckpasser, he comes into this event with the highest recent speed rating of any starter, having stopped the clock in 1.41.6 while posting a 108 last start. He’s stepping up hugely in class however, as that was against allowance company, but a repetition would see him in the mix at the business end of this. Among the positives for this runner are his impressive strike rate of six wins from sixteen, his dual stakes wins, his graded placing and his current form. On the other hand, although this is not a Grade 1, it contains Grade 1 winners, and Northern Wells’ two Grade 1 starts were the worst runs of his career. There’s also the possibility of his joining in a three horse war for the lead, and, from a wide gate, that could spell his undoing. Still, an undeniable chance in a very hard race.

From 12 jumps Miter Saw, coming into this race clearly on the up and showing significant improvement as his three year old campaign progresses. He’s a son of Not for Love from Omaha Slew, a prolific producer of winners. Omaha Slew was a winner of six races herself and all four her progeny have won races. Three of them are currently active in the bobthehat stable, with One One One (Kingmambo), a Grade 3 winner, Mitre Saw a stakeswinner still on the rise, and Rip Saw (Jade Hunter) getting closer in black type juvenile events. But back to this race. He’s one of only a couple of runners showing consistent and improving form. After appearing for a while to be one of those who’ll do anything in allowances, but stumble at the black type, he put that theory well and truly to rest last start with a convincing win to open his stake account. Covering the mile in 1.34.6, a repetition would see him among those fighting to the line first and the only question now to be answered is whether he is ready to take the next step to graded level.

Candlepower occupies the outside gate and has chosen a tough assignment in his attempt to arrest an eight run losing streak. After starting this year with a second then two wins at stakes level, 2006 looked full of promise. Although he finished not far away on a number of occasions, he has been unable to recapture that earlier form, even finding the task beyond him in his three most recent allowance runs. A son of Law Society from the underperforming (2 from 22. $29k), well bred mare Light Teddy (Majestic Light / Blushing Groom), Candlepower was obtained by morrighan after just one start for another trainer. The current stable has enjoyed great success, winning 4 from 17 including the aforementioned pair at stakes level. With a career best speed rating of just 96, it’s hard to see him as a winning chance in this tough field, but a run better than his starting price would expect, is not beyond the realms of possibility.

Summary: I think this is perhaps the hardest race I’ve yet covered, largely because most of the runners have more reasons for being unable to win, than positive indicators that that they may. Common sense tells us that a triple Grade 1 winner, top of his class and racing against a field containing but a singular Grade 1 win between them, should have the race at his mercy. But such are the question marks surrounding Creepshow that even the bookmakers have seen fit not to allot him the exclusive slot at the top of the betting. Creepshow is not the force he was several months ago, and at this stage of his career it’s possible that he may find the distance a tad too short. On the other hand, 5/1 is a great price for a horse whose achievements exceed those of his opponents by such a huge margin. The horse installed as equal favourite, Brabastorm, has never won a black type race. On the second line, To Die For, the other Grade 1 winner, may be given no peace in front, and will probably struggle if unable to comfortably set the tempo. Northern Wells must prove himself at the higher level and may also suffer in a speed duel. And so it goes. Many can win, most can and will find an excuse to be beaten. Anyway, to selections. It’s hard to look past a star, but look past him I do on ths occasion. The horses I think are least likely to find reasons to lose are Ghetto Muppet and Miter Saw, and I’m selecting them first and second in that order. Creepshow is the quality runner and I’ve got him coming home for third. Unfortunately most of the field are capable of spring an upset, so if Rattleshirt, To Die For, Brabastorm, Libertine, Tete Razamanaz, or Northern Wells do so, I’m not going to admit I was wrong.

The Odds Makers opinion:

5/1 – Creepshow, Brabastorm

7/1 – To Die For, Northern Wells

8/1 – Miter Saw

The Computer opinion:

Creepshow – 1

To Die For – 13           

Northern Wells – 53

Candlepower – 54

Ghetto Muppet – 63