Filly Battles Bluegrass Colts

An overflow field of 17 three year olds have entered Ontario’s Grade III Northern Derby.  Three runners from the Bluegrass Derby will reunite for the nine furlong contest.  Before a Tuesday scratch, there were four Bluegrass entrants, but Pigeon3 decided not to run Ermington Pegasus, the number two finisher in both the Bluegrass and the Travelers.  

Heavy rains promise to make for a sloppy surface, and that may have played a part in Pigeon3’s decision.

The Northern Derby is one of the oldest races in the Sim, with the inaugural run coming back in 2000.  It its six previous runs, the race has played very fairly to all running styles, including a come from behind run in stakes record time by Rock Cutter last year.  That win has been Rock Cutter’s only graded win. 

With so many graded winners, it is doubtful we will be able to say the same for today’s winner.

With the defection of Ermington Pegasus, the top rated runner in the field is Peacenik, fifth in the Bluegrass, eighth in the Travelers, and winner of three graded stakes.  Peacenik is joined by San Pellegrino and Alastor as top rated colts from the Bluegrass.

With no danger of being lost in the hype surrounding those three colts, the morning line favorite is the filly Glorious Morning, winner of the Sister Hen.  Glorious Morning makes her first start ever against the boys.

Here is a look at the entire field:

1. Euler (Roar x Cryptoclearance) is trained by probably the worst trainer in the game.^*  Blinking (9%) keeps placing this colt, one of the best eight to eight and a half furlong three year old runners in the game, in races where he has no chance.  Last time he raced against older horses.  The time before that he was inexplicably on the turf.  This time he’s in a race that’s a half furlong too long.  Only hope is for jockey Veronica Townsend to ignore any trainer instruction.  Townsend was aboard the winner last year.  9-1.

2. Fappaburst (Coronado’s Quest x Fappiano) has tried graded stakes nine times in his 16 starts and has finished in the money in three of them.  His only two tries at routes would not seem encouraging, but Sarava02 (15%) tries anyway against this tough and full field.  He does have a win on a wet track and a couple of recent triple digit figures.  9-1.

3. Mr. Postman (Scatter the Gold x Dayjur) is winless in his eight stakes tries and winless in his two route tries, but the Mailace7 (9%) trainee is one for one on a wet surface.  There are only a couple of early speed horses in the race, and all four of Post’s wins have come wire to wire, so expect this sprinter to be right in front for much of it.  He’s been fading in shorter and against weaker, so it would be a surprise to see him there at the end.  He’s the 14^th qualifier for a 14 horse field.   9-1.

4. Muranjai (Mt. Livermore x Mr. Greely) takes the jump in class off two very nice allowance wins at today’s distance.  In fact all of his allowance races have been very nice.  The Aussie (12%) trained colt’s two bad races have been his only stakes tries.  One for one on an off track, the only knock on him is that class question.  It would not be a big surprise to see him end up in the thick of things here.  11-1.

5. Super12’s (15%) San Pellegrino (War Chant x Pleasant Colony) qualified for the Bluegrass mostly off of three straight seconds in graded stakes late in his two year old season and early in his three year old season.  He went off at long odds in the Derby and finished midpack.  Recently he’s picked up a couple more graded seconds, but his only win this year came (barely) in a four horse allowance.  Running against the top colts in the world, he’s picked up seven seconds in 16 starts.  Often we think of that as “seconditis” and question the desire of the horse. But considering Pellie’s speed figures and the strength of his opponents, it would be a mistake to dismiss him.  This serious threat picks up the best jockey in Ontario (and past winner of this race).  8-1.

6. Glorious Morning (Johannesburg x Sadler’s Wells) has never been out of the money in 10 routes.  Still lightly raced, the Seekin49er (12%) filly is still improving.   Lately she’s been beating up on Casa Bonita, who flatters with her strong second last weekend.  She abandons distaff fields for the first time, so it’s anybody’s guess how she’ll handle it.  Gets favorite status off some strong speed figures, but if we go with clock time, this race has usually gone quicker than what she’s been running.  5-1.

7. Two races back, Otto Empire (Empire Maker x Danehill) got the first triple digit speed figure in his brief career, only to finish a distant fourth in the Grade I It’s My Birthday.  Last time out, the Gallorette (19%) trainee went even faster winning an allowance.  Speed handicappers will place this one right there after his 104, and class handicappers will dismiss him for being out of the money in all five graded tries.  It is hard to ignore that he’s met San Pellegrino twice and has been soundly beaten by that one twice.  12-1.

8. Test Big Mac (Testa Rossa x Event of the Year) tried the slop once before and loved it.  More recently, the VegasJef01 (16%) trainee picked up a Grade III win at this distance two back and faded against tougher in the Travelers last time.  He should be sitting right behind a pair of early speed horses, so he should have no excuse.  His grade III win came against a weaker field, so I’ll look elsewhere, but would not be a surprise.  8-1.

9. Three horses will go off at odd tied for the longest.  Remington (Chiselling x A.P. Indy) earned his long odds in his last race, a distant ninth against a strong allowance field.  Trained by the talented Wistful (20%), Remington is winless in nine stakes tries and without a finish in the money in his two graded tries.  On the plus side, he does possess a triple digit speed figure and is untested on a wet track.  17-1.

10. Peacenik (Peace Rules x Broad Brush) had an outstanding two year old campaign and was the shortest price on many future books for the Bluegrass.  After an Equinics win and a win in the Grade II Wooden Indian, the Oaklawn66 (15%) trained colt was many experts’ selection in the Derby.  His respectable fifth that day has been followed with, well, not much.  After his terrible outing last time in the Travelers, it looks like he peaked during his two year old season, and he’s done.  That might be true, but in the past few weeks, several horses who were hot that first Saturday in May and cold since have returned to form.  The strain of qualifying and then running in the Triple Crown races took their toll, but the toll has been paid.  Watch for signs of life here.  I wouldn’t bet him now, but a decent showing would make him one to watch for next time.  8-1.

11. Ojai4Kyle (19%) was so impressed with the speedy nonwinners-of-two-x allowance win by Ojai Victory (Victory Gallop x Salt Lake) that he stepped him up in class all the way here.  It does make sense to dismiss him as a win candidate based on class alone, but we can’t ignore the tenacity of this colt to finish in the money: he has seven thirds and a pair of wins in his 12 starts.  Crafty trainer may have made a wise and bold move here.  Little downside for the barn: if that last speed figure was a fluke, it’s back to a profitable allowance career; if Ojai sneaks into a piece of this purse, it’s all gravy.  17-1.

12. I Did My Time (Kingmambo x Sadler’s Wells) figures to join Mr. Postman in an early speed duel that figures to doom them both.  All four of this Sinner (11%) trained colt’s wins have come wire to wire, including his last race – a triple digit allowance.  He’s tried graded stakes before, and both times he’s faded badly after establishing a lead.  Mr. Postman was the 14^th horse to qualify for this race.  Had one more horse with more than 11 stakes points entered, perhaps we could be touting this one as lone speed. Alas, no.  12-1.

13. Just about any entry here can be expected to run a triple digit speed figure today.  Road to Isengard (Lemon Drop Kid x Giant’s Causeway) might be the exception.   The Glendower (15%) trained colt has yet to top 95.  Road has a couple stakes wins, but his tries against this level have not been pretty.  I am willing to bet against this one.  17-1.

14. There was a contest to pick the winner of the Bluegrass.  I recall picking Allastor (Squirtle Squirt x Hennessy) based off his amazing run in the Grade II Sleepy Fan.  That 107 speed figure might be good enough to win this.  After one more try following the Bluegrass, trainer Marinia (14%) gave Allastor a  much needed 15 week freshening.  The way recent races have been won by those fit in may, we only need to make a couple assumptions to really like his chances here. 

^*Blinking is my stable.

Morning Line selection:  6-10-5-8

Timmn’s picks: Journalistic integrity prevents me from making a selection. Yeah, right.  I’ll go with 1-5-14-4.