Saint Ledge Stakes G-3
Saint Ledge Stakes
Grade III
A mile and one quarter
Firm Turf
$175,000
All horses, 3 years old
Good afternoon and welcome to our main event of the day: The 6th running of the Saint Ledge Stakes G-3. A field of nine has assembled in the paddock area and what a tight and narrow field it is. Many may remember Rain God’s 2004 run where he charged to victory on way to what is still a career high speed rating of 118. Looking at our field today, three really stand out. Kepler Berzerk is showing good form lately and will look to save ground with a hard stretch drive against the front running styles of Strong Belwas and Silvershaft. However, six other highly competitive colts are prepared to steal their glory and you’ll likely see some interesting exotic bets at the windows. We’ve got a firm course as we look to so 10 furlongs in what is sure to be an exciting match.
Maverick’s Choice: Tri-Box 1-3-5-7 $24
PP 1
3/1 KEPLER BERZERK
(WOODMAN x A.P. INDY x
Trainer: bobo
Turf Classic Rank: 15
Starting from the inside post, our morning line favorite Kelper Berzerk looks like a very strong first choice. Nicely bred, trainer bobo has nursed this horse along very well and he looks like he may be improving as the year progresses. After winning three listed stakes as a two year old, Kelper Berzerk looked poised to take the three year old division by storm in his first race of the year in the Mick Dittman G-1 where he narrowly missed the top spot but ran a bang up race against a field of 20. However, he has evened out for most of the year as he failed to really improve much and didn’t get his first win of the year until June in The Don’t Be A Stranger Stakes –Stk. Fortunately, he has shown marked improvements lately as it seems that he was a late developer. He has a extremely late kick for look for him as they turn for home.
PP 2
8/1 LISTEN TO THE LION(IRE)
(ROCK OF
Trainer: super10
Turf Classic Rank : 25
Listen To The Lion(IRE), a Super Stable entry, is fighting for respectability at this level. He scored his first graded win at the end of last year in the Apparently Juvenile-G3 and followed that up immediately with another win in the Panhandle Park Derby-G3. However, since then he’s really struggled against graded company. His last three attempts in a graded race have resulted in losses of 15, 24 and 25 lengths. He has faired decently in listed stakes events this summer and he may have found what I call a modestly softer field. Like many of the other hopefuls, his chances depend on what type of race the favorites are likely to run and if he has his “A” game at hand. He can press the pace or stalk the speed and draws top veteran jockey R Harzheim who is sporting a 23% win percentage and 54% in the money this year.
PP 3
7/2 STRONG BELWAS
(EMPIRE MAKER x CAERLEON x WOODMAN)
Trainer: asoiaf
Turf Classic Rank : 39
Strong Belwas shortens up a bit here today and I like the move. Looks may be deceiving for some as you are looking at the #4 ranked three year old turf marathoner so any doubt as to whether or not he can get the distance is thrown out. It’s hard to bet against a pony that hasn’t missed hitting the board all year and that amounts to an 80% in the money percentage. Wow! He’s fresh off a Grade 1 win in the California Turf Classic G-1 and a near miss two races back in the Irish Derby G-1. The only question is whether or not his front running style will do him well with the drop in distance. He really didn’t have much of a choice since the next marathon turf stake race on this side of the pond for three olds isn’t until November 4th in The PROPER MINT Challenge-Stk. Coupled with Kelper Berzerk’s come from behind tactic, it should make for a very interesting race indeed.
PP 4
7/1 CAMPILLO
(STORM CAT x SEEKING THE GOLD x NIJINSKY II)
Trainer: rafita
Turf Classic Rank : 154
Trainer rafita is looking for a quick bounce back for his colt Campillo in today’s graded race. It’s been a year since this Storm Cat offspring has won in any type of stakes event but up until his last race in the Shimko Classic-G2 he had been running very strong and consistent. It’s hard to say if it was the distance or the off track that did him in. Either way, I think he’s much better suited here than 11.5 furlongs as his front running style does have some holes, mainly in stamina. If he can return to form, he has the speed to compete with the top runners but we’ll have to see how the pace sets up for him. Luke warm bet at 7/1 but he might warrant a spot on a tri-wheel of some type.
PP 5
5/1 SILVERSHAFT
(MINESHAFT x
Trainer: lenny6
Turf Classic Rank : 638
Hoping that a surface switch will do him some good, trainer lenny6 enters his Mineshaft colt Silver Colt. He does have one listed stake race win in his two year old season in The ALYBLUEGRASS Stakes –Stk and three allowance wins to boot. He has run steady for most of the year and doesn’t seemed phased with his few runs on the grass. This is time of year when you start to see some of the late developing colts start to make their mark and this may be the break out race for Silvershaft. His chances depend mainly on the pace as he like to set just off the leader but will have to break sharply to stay in contention.
PP 6
7/1 GOVERNMENT LISTING
(SMART STRIKE x DIXIELAND BAND x A.P. INDY)
Trainer: tegan
Turf Classic Rank : 126
Breaking out of gate #6, Government Listing finds himself with a huge question mark on stat sheet. I don’t think that there is any doubt that this Smart Strike colt has an extremely fast first step. He does have one listed stake victory in his two year old season finding the winner’s circle in The HOOD(AUS) Bonanza –Stk and held on until the final 1 ½ furlongs in his last try in the Try The Wine G-3. What troubles me is whether or not he can get the extra two furlongs that are needed here. He has shown on more than one occasion that he may top off at a mile or even 7-7 ½ furlongs. However, if he can either manage to outrun the field or save something for the final run, he may just find that elusive win as he has the time to compete with any of our competitors. Unfortunately, he’ll have to compete with Strong Belwas the entire way.
PP 7
6/1 TAMARIKI
(PEINTRE CELEBRE (IRE) x FOOLISH PLEASURE x GRAUSTARK)
Trainer: emtstables
Turf Classic Rank : 231
Perhaps wanting his colt to recover from a blistering nine race two year old season, trainer emtstables has taken a much slower approach for his Peintre Celebre(IRE) colt Tamariki. He’s already a winner of six listed stakes including a run of five in row starting late in his two year old campaign. What may look strange on paper is the fact that this colt has spent almost his entire career running in sprint events. But it appears that Tamariki was ready to show more. His first attempt at two turns was last time in out in open allowance company at 8.5 furlongs where he performed well but found himself running out of track in the stretch. I like the decision to stretch him out even further as he seems willing to get the distance and he’s no stranger running with this level of competition. He may be a very good pick at 6/1.
PP 8
8/1 D. H.
(ROAR x SHAHRASTANI x OGYGIAN)
Trainer: hillbilly
Turf Classic Rank : 189
Short in name but not in ability, D.H. with trainer hillbilly are looking for big in this colt’s graded debut. He scored his first stakes win three races back in The Just Trying Stakes –Stk taking home the crown while saving ground. I’m still a little unsure whether or not he got the class to compete here as his numbers have drifted up and down this year. He’s coming off his best performance of his career in his last race in the EPSOMDOWNS VS EAAA — Owner Restricted Alw where he ran a very respectable 3rd. I’m not quite ready to mark in down for the first position but he may fight for a share of the purse money.
PP 9
19/1 MILWAUKE BREWECTOR
(
Trainer: philipp
Turf Classic Rank : 152
I might just place a bet here just for the name. Milwauke Brewctor has been well placed by his trainer philipp this year as he has mediocre speed but has managed to find the board three times including one win in listed stake events. However, he’ll find the going much rougher this time around as he doesn’t have the shortened field of four or five that he’s accustomed to and make a major step up in class. He also stretches out a bit further this time than what he has ran previously and this all adds up to a poor showing most likely. He’s a nasty competitor but is probably more suited to allowance or high level claiming races.