Juveniles face Breeder’s Bowl distance in the Carney Memorial
The juveniles are back in Virginia this week for the second annual running of the Carney Memorial. It was won last year by King Cong, his first and only stakes win. The race runs at a Breeder’s Bowl distance of eight and a half furlongs, and the turf is rated as firm. It is an open stakes for all two year olds, and carries a $50000 purse. Oddsmakers have chosen a 3/5 favorite, but are playing it close to the vest on the rest of this short field. The other four contenders fall between 7/2 and 9/1 odds. Juvenile races are usually the toughest to handicap, and tend to give some big payoffs at the betting window, especially when they start to stretch out in distance. Let’s look at the entries for this one.
PP 1) Dexter’s Quest Sired by Dexterity, Trained by danni4. Dexter’s Quest draws the rail in this one, which will be his third career start. He has one prior stakes start and is still seeking his first win at this level. He has a win and a place in his two prior starts, and he comes off a long out third in his first stakes try at six and a half furlongs on turf in his last outing. Both his prior starts have been on the turf right here in Virginia. He hasn’t really shown outstanding speed figures, but they have been decent for the start of his two year old season. This will be his longest run by a full two furlongs. He hasn’t really shown the inclination to want longer, falling off quickly in his last. His sire, Dexterity, is a freshman sire this year. Out of 23 runners, he hasn’t fielded any breakout stars, and only six starts have been at route distance, with one allowance winner. They do seem to display a slight turf preference. The Kingmambo x Diesis(GB) cross should lend itself to distance, but the jury is still out. Rainbow Quest, on his dam side, is a proven distance and turf influence. He is has made the top sires list as both a sire and dam sire for each of the past four seasons. Dexter’s Quest has thus far run as a midpack closer but his best race was short sprint in which he lead most of the way. His speeds fit in well with most of this field, but if his last was an indication, this may be a bit long for him at this point in his career. He will need to count on stamina and some other horses fading late to have success here.
PP 2) Keep One Sired by Sakhee, Trained by aludra. Keep One makes his fifth career run here, and this will be his second stakes run. He still seeks his first stakes win. His prior four starts have netted him a 1-1-0-1-1 record, with a best speed of 71.3 earned in his last race. That race was his first stakes run, where he held on for a fading fifth in a field of ten at eight furlongs on turf in Maine. Three of his four runs have been on turf, and since the switch in his second start, his speeds have been steadily increasing race by race. He showed a nice jump in speed as he increased distance, as well, and this distance looks to be to his liking. He is sired by Sakhee, is a good route influence, with a slight turf preference. He also sports a very nice 12.6% stakes winners to runners among his current progeny. On the dam side, we find Herat, who lends a bit of speed to the breeding, with the majority of his progeny preferring sprints, and dirt, as well. Keep One has been breaking at a pace that would normally put him towards the head of the midpack. He hasn’t shown much inclination to close any real distance, and he seems to fair better on and off track than he does the firm surface. To have a shot at the win here, he will need to tuck right in off the lead and wait for his chance. If he can hold the early pace he should do well here.
PP 3) Power Fleet(GB) Sired by Powerscourt(GB), Trained by zooomr2. Power Fleet(GB) marches into this one as the oddsmakers’ darling at an overpowering 3/5 odds. He has three prior starts with two wins and a place. He won his first stakes in his last outing, taking a medium field wire to wire at six and a half furlongs on dirt. He posted a career best speed of 86.9 in that outing, as well. He walks into the double whammy here, trying grass for the first time and also stretching out two furlongs past his previous long race. That could be a deadly combination for him here. His sire is Powerscourt (GB), a freshman this year. He has sired predominately turfers this year. Though with all two year olds they have mostly run in sprints, there have been enough routes to show a possible pattern of talent in the longer races. His dam sire is Afleet, is a strong dirt sprint influence, which could help to explain some of the success that this colt has been experiencing so far. This colt is a fast starter, taking larger fields wire to wire in his last two starts. He should have enough competition for the early lead to keep him honest, but not enough to hold him out of the lead for long. The question here is whether he will be able to hold that lead on this softer surface, with two extra furlongs to run.
PP 4) Especially Yours Sired by Special Rate, Trained by wtas02. Especially Yours is one of two fillys in this race. She makes her third career start here, and her second consecutive stakes run. She is still looking for that first stakes win. She is 1-0-1-1-0 in her first three, with a best speed of 67.8 earned in her last outing. That race was an eight furlong turf stakes in Utah, where she finished fourth by a short three lengths after leading it for most of the way. Her dirt and turf speeds have been comparable, and they fit right into the average for juvenile maiden winners. Her last outing was her first start in a route race, and she increased her speed figure quite nicely, so she may like a little distance. Her sire, Special Rate, is a freshman with only three offspring so far. With only six runs between them, it is rather difficult to see any preferences for surface or distance. Going further back in the lineage, there is a strong sprint influence, with a good deal of surface versatility. On his dam side, we find Kris S. whose older progeny have strong route tendencies beyond maiden level, and a very nearly even split between dirt and turf runners. This filly is a fast starter, having at least a piece of the early lead in all three of her prior runs. She has some hot early speed to her inside, and she is going to need to ratchet her speed up a notch to grab any kind of lead here. She gave up a big first half lead in her last, and unless she can find another gear, this one could be a repeat.
PP 5) Topshop Princess Sired by Smarty Jones, Trained by foxon. Topshop Princess is the second of two fillies in this race, and she makes her sixth career start here. She is making her second stakes run, still looking for that first stakes win. She had a near miss in her last, losing a stakes race right here in Virginia at this same distance by a nose. Over all she has a 1-1-2-0-0 record in five, with a best speed of 75.5 which was earned in her last start. Her dirt debut was rather miserable, but she made quite a turn around when she switched to turf. Her trainer has been steadily stretching her out, and she has responded by increasing her speed figures in every race. Her sire is the high profile sophomore, Smarty Jones. His first year crop has shown good talent for routing, though he lends his offspring a very strong dirt preference. Forty Niner is his dam sire, and what can you say about him? His progeny tend to excel wherever you put them, displaying a strong dirt preference with a somewhat less well defined sprint preference. This filly is a deep closer, and this field is tailor made for her. She has some early speed to set her up, and not another real strong closer in this field with her. I like her here at 7/2 odds, and the worst I see her finishing is a close second.