The End Of The Road To The Bluegrass- The $6.0 Million Bluegrass Derby

The End Of The Road To The Bluegrass- The $6 Million Bluegrass Derby.

Kentucky(KY) | Saturday, May 2, 2015 | 3PM | Bluegrass Derby
$6,000,000 Purse | Grade I | 3 Year Olds | 10 Furlongs | Fast Dirt

Here we are! At the end of a long, twisting, wild road, we and 20 special horses with very nervous, excited, and lucky trainers are finally at the big destination. The Bluegrass Derby. These young horses have raced their hearts out in the past few weeks, from the USA to New Zealand, and I would like to congratulate all in attendance. Finally, I would like to thank everyone at the BTB for allowing a newbie like me to cover one of the biggest races in the sim! Now, let’s get started!

ALLGROWNUP(1) looked pretty sharp in the Corkscrew Stakes G1, finishing third by two. The CONGRATS colt did take the Moises Alou G2 by a passable margin- one and a half lengths. This colt’s closing style works in his favour with the speed in this contest. Going back to his roots, he was seemingly sold at auction after his first race. Look where he is now. A G2 winner with a decent shot at the Derby. I asked dixiedotco what they thought about his horses chances here, and he told me “I feel like he’ll definitely have to step up to compete. He doesn’t have the fancy numbers some of the other contenders do, but the one thing I like about him is he is steady and consistent. He’s always finishing. I’m hoping that translates into an even better performance with the extra furlong. I know a lot of these horses are not going to want 10 furlongs, and am hoping he is one that does.”

PAGLIACCI’S TEARS(2) disliked the slightly softer dirt in the Wooden Indian G1 with F Gossett back on the saddle. However, he has proven that he can put in a great effort in G1s, winning the Sparkling Wine G1 by two, and finishing a game second by one in the Movieland Futurity. Possibly seeing him boxed in and unable to close, super1 instructed Gossett to keep a little more to the outside. The son of DISTORTED HUMOR is another likely candidate for this covenant title. Super1 weighs in: “PAGLIACCI’S TEARS, has been in the mix since last fall and he has been pointed to this week after his win in the Sparkling Wine.  We sent a short horse to the Fountain of Ute and then he ran an improved race in the Wooden Indian, though he may have disliked the off track.  He is lightly raced since his winter freshening, and should be hitting peak form.  He is amazingly consistent and has earned his spot in the gate. He will race 4-5 lengths of the pace and if he is advancing well and near the leaders at the 3/8 pole, he stands a pretty good chance but he has to hold off the real closers in the final furlong.

THE GREAT OTHER(3) came up two lengths shy in the California Derby G1 as he took over the lead on the turn and head of stretch, only to have the fast closing WASHINGTON HUSKIES snatch it away in time. Nonetheless, it was a great ride by T Small to stay tucked in and pull out in the stretch. With the early speed, I wouldn’t be surprised if Small tucked in fourth or fifth only to pull out in the final furlongs and go by. Here are given’s thoughts on his horse: “On paper, The Great Other is certainly the stronger and more formful looking of my two entries. He showed glimmers of talent as a 2yo but it wasn’t until I sent him to the farm in October and November that he really blossomed. When he came back in December and smoked an allowance with the greatest of ease, I knew I might have something special. He handled class rises with aplomb, winning a stakes and then providing a gutsy win in a G2. […]. His speed figures have improved or stayed the same in every career start, and I think he may be sitting on a monster effort for the Derby. You never know if any of these want to go the distance, but the way he seems to open up in the stretch indicates to me he might be fine with the length.”

READY TO TRAVEL(4) paved his way to the Bluegrass with his pretty convincing win in the Arkansas Juvenile G1- two and a quarter lengths. You could say that top jockey T Ace has been a big factor in this guy’s success, as he’s ridden him to the best two starts of his career in subsequent starts, in both cases gunning him to the front. The son of MORE THAN READY’s strategy should be difficult to maintain with speed coming from top contenders such as CHEESECAKE FACTORY, BLUEGRASS BOLT, and HEHASNEVERFAILEDUS, among others. However, if T Ace can clear him without to much strain, I think he has a great shot. I could not reach stockswami for a question, but good luck to them.

WEEPING WARRIOR(5) was another horse in the BB Juvenile, but was a little less noticeable finishing seventh by five. Since then, the son of MAJESTIC WARRIOR hasn’t done anything much. His speed figures were a little lackluster. She looks a little out of form and will definitely need a big change here. I asked given how he felt about his hidden entry, and he told me that “despite being the first foal out of his dam in seven years. He didn’t fire in the Breeders’Cup, and I was expecting him to regress as a 3yo to the point where I didn’t enter him in the Derby. However, while he hasn’t won yet as a 3yo, his two fastest career SFs have both come at 9.5f, which is the longest that he has ever run. Additionally, he’s the type of horse who almost always closes ground in the stretch, and I won’t be surprised if he runs much better than most people might think. ”

BELT LINE ROAD(6) came from way far back to place second by just over a length in the Taughannnock Falls G1. If rider J Piotrowski moves her a little bit sooner she could get there this time. The HENRYTHENAVIGATOR colt also came up just short in the Niagra Falls Stakes. All signs point to an earlier move, and if this happens, the colt can win. On their second entry, super1 comments “We were never sure if he was going to draw into the race but he did and I think he is just going to love the distance, I have a feeling he may just be getting warmed up at 10 panels. Funny, he is one of those sucker bet horses, finished 2nd in six races but, I think he is going to be one of the colts flying that last 1/4 mile. I really think well of him and if he had been forced out of the top 20 to draw in, I was considering scratching the crying clown to get him in.”

BARB’S EVIL LAUGH(7) took the Wooden Indian G1 on the good dirt last time with an above average (for these types of horses, anyways) 113 speed figure. I’m wondering if the closer can go even faster this time on the dry surface. These conditions make the GRAYDAR colt another big contender for the win. If this beautiful gray colt can muster up as much speed as he did last time, I see no reason why the horse can’t be victorious. I asked jakematt about how he thought his horse would fare, and he said this: “I tossed the question to Barb, who chuckled and boldly stated “we’ll win this one for DelPenn and all the Barb horses who have come before”. Gotta love her spirit. Our horse is sharp, ran a great time in the Prep, and is ready for the distance. We’re hoping for a good result. ”

CHEESECAKE FACTORY(8) was the wire-to-wire easy victor of the All Saints Derby G1. It won’t be that easy this time, as there will be several amazing horses vying for the lead in the early going. But, this is one of those great horses, so he could just as well be the one who clears the fray first. The second son of AWESOME AGAIN in this race has actually never been worst than first (no rhyme intended) in the first, second or third call. No doubt masterm will have told rider J Wilson to do the same here. I questioned masterm on his horses chances here, and he responded with “I think my colt may struggle to get the distance, but if he does a good draw will be paramount. My colt is probably an outside chance to win. There is a lot of speed in the race which hurts, along with some big closers. I’m hoping that I’m wrong about my chances.”

HEHASNEVERFAILEDUS(9) is another front runner. The former BB Juvenile winner was only ever ahead by a little in the Juve’, which may be a small hint that he’ll drop out if the going gets tough early. Still, you can’t ignore a win like that. More recently he took the Felipe Alou G2 by over a length, with a 109 speed rating. In just 12 months of racing, the son of SYMBOLI KRIS S already has a decorated career, winning a Breeders Bowl race and being a EOY Award winner. He’s no doubt a great horse, and is another with a good shot here. Willyam comments “HEHASNEVERFAILEDUS has been working very well. He has put on good weight (being he is 17 hands). Over the winter I figured I only wanted two preps before the Derby. He had already qualified for the Bluegrass so I decide to run him in an ALW race and the G2 Felipe Alou Stakes. Both to be run at 8.5furs. The reason for this is I wanted his speed to be really sharp on derby day so I kept him from 9f races. He is fresh off a 6 week interval and going 10 furlongs and there seems to be a ton of speed in here, but i have to ride the horse that brought me here. His breeding says 10furs should be no problem. Hopefully he gets out of the gate cleanly and then lets see if my jock can control his high cruising speed.

SLEWGAN AWE(10) represents knowlton, and secured his spot after he took the Sand Castle Derby G1 with a fair bit of ease, and showed us that he is one of the biggest contenders here. Not to mention his three quarter length win in the tough Vermont Is For Lovers G1. The already millionaire son of AWESOME AGAIN is the top rated horse in Vermont because of this. I asked knowlton how he felt about his runner here, and he responded with “I think he has a decent shot. Likes to sit just off the lead, and there is some front speed in this race to set the pace. There are three or four other stalkers in the race so that is a negative for me. I think he will like the distance.”

WASHINGTON HUSKIES(11) was the two length winner of the California Derby G1, with a 109 speed rating. This guy will creep up on you throughout the race, not seeing him until he blows right by in the stretch, after splitting the pack. The SPECIAL WEEK colt is another millionaire here, and is definitely a big contender with a derby prep win under his belt. Hopefully rider F Gossett can guide him through to a big finish. I asked nextbonus where he stands on his contender’s chances, and he replied “Just like in real life, anything can happen in a horse race. My colt was as good as I hoped last time out winning the California Derby. If he doesn’t bounce, I feel he has as good a shot as anyone else. His full sister, You See LA, finished second in the Derby in 2010. There are 19 other real top flight horses he has to beat. So I take nothing for granted. Win or lose, there is nothing like the thrill of saddling a Derby horse. This is my fourth time and it never gets old.”

RAVEN GOD(12) was a non-factor in the California Derby G1. He finished seventh by over seven. This RAVEN’S PASS colt came from thirteenth to finish a good third by one in the BB Juvenile and second in the End Of The Line Futurity G1. However, he hasn’t won a race since September 2014, which was an Allowance for non-winners of two lifetime. This colt will need to muster up everything he has to be a factor here. Tees was unreachable but I wish him the best of luck.

SWINGING BIG SHAFT(13) was a pretty convincing winner in the Among The Thirsty G1 on the fourth of April. He looks pretty sharp, looking at that fairly easy win. The only problem I’ve got here, is that this son of MINESHAFT hasn’t yet got a taste of Derby trail action. Nonetheless, he has shown to be in top shape winning the Among The Thirsty, and finishing second by just a neck in the Hustlin Hoosier G2. I can’t make up my mind to be honest. He looks great, but will the derby be too hard on the bay? Mtk was unavailable for an interview, but good luck to him anyways.

RIVER OF PANG(14) ended up third last time in the California Derby G1, by four. Perhaps S L Ledwith held him back to get him into the Bluegrass but not burn his horse out totally. It’s also noteworthy that he won the Hustlin Hoosier G2 by a neck, making the son of BERNARDINI a G2 winner. He’s shown us that he’s in form, and has the talent to win a race like this. Sime11 said that “I’m really happy with the way RIVER OF PANG has come on. He’s always improving and seems to be enjoying the distance increases each prep. So although he probably lacks some class that some of the other contenders have shown to date, I feel with the extra distance that the derby offers he is still some chance at sneaking a place and who knows hopefully even a win. He was bred exactly for this day so I’m pumped that he’s managed to qualify. It’s a great race, I’ve never had a runner in it before so regardless of result I am excited just to be able to be a part of it this year. ”

SOPHIES APPLE TREE(15) convinced us all that he is ready to take on the big race after he took the big Florida Derby G1 by storm, winning by two and a half lengths. The TAPIT colt still had a fiery 112 speed figure, closing from 9th in the back straight to the win. He just cracked a million dollars in that triumph, and he looks alright for another $3.6M at approximately 3:02PM on Saturday. Upon interview with kingab, he said “I never dreamed he was a Derby colt until his win in the Florida Derby. His race and speed figure truly shocked me. He had done nothing close to that before, but in his defense, he had run very few times. I hope that he really is that good instead of running one good race.”

I WANNBE A PIRATE(16) made a huge move in the stretch, moving up 10 places to capture the Taughannock Falls G1. Due to the copious amounts of early speed, this big closer definitely has a big chance. He also has the advantage of having raced nine and a half furlongs before, farther than many of his opponents in this race. If he can get a decent ride, this progeny of SEA THE STARS looks like another top competitor. Rharfo said that “Based on speed numbers posted by many of his rivals in lead up races to the Derby compared to I WANNBE A PIRATE’s efforts, I am not overly confident of success but should be closing hard late in the final 2 furlongs. Not writing him off, but he will need a career best effort.”

RED DOT SWEATER(17) was the second place finisher to HEHASNEVERFAILEDUS in last year’s BB Juvenile. There is undoubtedly a little grudge between these two, and I’m excited to see what happens. In this son of EMPIRE MAKER’s last start, he finished sixth by eight in a pretty unremarkable try, being the Florida Derby G1. Also, this colt posted a fairly bland 102 rating in that one. Maybe a change in race style should be in order for the bay. Lgbost’s comments here stated that “The last race has me worried, hopefully he can bounce back and run a big one. Coming into 2015 I had high hopes for this guy and 10 panels shouldn’t be a problem. Hopefully he gets a good draw, saves ground and makes 1 big long lasting run late. This is my 2nd horse to run in this prestigious race (4th place finish in 2010 with Curly Q) Good luck to everyone in the race! ”

SUICIDAL DREAM(18) dominated the rest in the Praying For Rain G1 (in which the track was coincidentally sloppy). He won by three in a quarter after having a great spot the whole way. He did it very quickly with a 111 speed rating and a 1:54 at 9.5 furlongs. The funny thing about this MEDAGLIA D’ORO colt is that he also has an extensive turf career. The funny thing being that he’s only ever race on fast dirt once, in his maiden. So who knows how he will react to the fast dirt now. To some horses, slop and fast dirt are two different surfaces. Lenny could not be reached for an interview, but good luck.

UNION RAILS(19) is off to a shaky start in 2015. He dropped out of it quite badly in the Corkscrew G1 last time, finishing eleventh by nine. Looking at the race, it seems he couldn’t clear the front as usual and was spent by the third call. Granted, he was third by one in the Vermont Is For Lovers G1, and perhaps K Ledwith opened up a little to large of a lead, and just slowing it down may have won the race. He looks okay, but the speed duel which will probably happen up front may thwart his plans. Baggio comments that “I’m not overly confident about Union Rail’s chances because of his uncharacteristicly poor prep race. I’d like to tell you that he threw a shoe during the race, or that the saddle must’ve slipped or that he bled like a pig and needs lasix! However, I can’t say any of that. We scoped him after the prep and he came up clean. He had a slight fever but that was gone within 24 hours so…we’ll see. Now, about his chances in The Sim Derby. Union is a nasty fellow when he’s right and gets the lead on his lonesome. He has been training well. He’s NOT over raced coming in, that’s for sure. However, for some reason, The Sim is not kind to horses who have won graded races for too long. Many of the horses in this great race will fade away and never run well again. See my Preakness winner from 2014: Infantry. Anyway, we will throw Union’s last prep race out and look forward to him showing his true form. (Gulp) I hope! I sure hope he’s competitive because he certainly has shown that talent! Good luck to all and may the horse be with you!”

BLUEGRASS BOLT(20) is the very aptly named third son of AWESOME AGAIN here. This guy bounced back from a lackluster effort in the Niagra Falls Stakes to win the Corkscrew Stakes G1 the 19-1 outsider by two lengths. He was also a start-to-finish winner with W Desantis. He’s come home today, as he was foaled in Kentucky. The 106 rating isn’t the most impressive out of all the runners, but by all means he can still get the job done. Deyoto told me that “I bred Bluegrass Bolt as the name suggests with the KY Derby in mind and picked the breeding combination pretty carefully. […] After his debut win at 77 early last year and then going 2/2 I thought I may have just come lucky for a Derby runner but after that he was nowhere near the mark and extremely disappointing. Come the Derby lead-ups this year he was nowhere near the mark in my opinion but had enough points for the Corkscrew Derby so I threw him in it thinking ‘got to be in it to win it’ and justly had the longest odds of the field. When he won the race I felt kind of bad for the other competitors and probably got the surprise of my 12 year Derbyfever career to see him lead them all the way and post a 106sp. I’m still dumbfounded at that result and now have absolutely no idea how he will go. If he wins it now on the back of that last run I won’t be surprised but if he runs 30L last I also won’t be surprised. ”

MY SELECTIONS
Wow, there are so many valid picks, it’s almost impossible to choose. But, here are my top three after much consideration.
1- BARB’S EVIL LAUGH
2- SOPHIES APPLE TREE
3- WASHINGTON HUSKIES

Longshot play- BLUEGRASS BOLT