A Little Evil In All of Us

Bluegrass Oaks winner Armed With Money is joined by thirteen other fillies as they vie for the Grade III Little Evil Sophomore Stakes.  She finds four fillies with lower odds than hers as she tries to get her first win since that first Saturday in May.

The Little Evil has been a tough race to handicap in the past as longshots have won four of the previous five runnings.  Twice the race has gone to wire to wire winners, and the other three times by pressing runners who stay within four lengths of the leader.  The two top five three year olds who run today, Armed With Money and Casa Bonita, have had their best success from running further back early.

Last year’s champion and stakes record holder, Genuine Orange, recently retired despite three stakes wins earlier this year.  It appears she will wait to breed until after she becomes a mare.

Here is a look at today’s field:

1. Muscle Shoals (Dixieland Band x Mr. Prospector) will be among the early leaders.  Privetdriv (11%) has trained her to a remarkable five wins, two seconds, and two thirds in only ten starts.  She comes into this ultra-sharp as she ran a lickety-split second against a large field of older girls last time.  She owns a pair of listed wins, but in her only graded try, she faded to third after it looked like she had it won easily.  Would be more confident in her if the race was a half furlong shorter.  6-1.

2. Wondergirl Elf (Danzig Connection x Storm Cat) looked like she was really coming into her own when she beat Armed With Money and twelve other nice ones in the rain-soaked Grade I lool Oaks, but that was five months ago, and she apparently has been facing health issues since.  She’s only raced once since, and that was a poor showing in the Sister Hen.  Trainer Zeco1 (12%) has given her another eleven weeks off and hopes she is healthy and back to that winning form.  She really doesn’t have another effort that comes close to that lool Oaks race and the morning line handicapper seems skeptical, as this filly, still ranked in the top twenty-five, goes off at long odds.  Jockey Isaiah Thomas looks to have 2006 riding championship won.  16-1.

3. Black Glitter (Glitterman x Damascus) has not responded well in the past when pressured for an early lead.  Last time, in the Cheap and Easy, she faced a few with cheap speed, did not get an easy lead, and never got involved in the race.  With several early runners in here, the Wiz10 (9%) trainee looks like she’ll have a tough time.  On the plus side, her two best races were here graded tries at this distance.  9-1.

4. Tremp de Minister (Encosta de Lago x Trempolino) followed her maiden win with three straight listed wins.  After watching her follow that up with a respectable fifth two races back and splitting a field of older last out, trainer Fab36 (13%) decided to try graded company.  She’s been running bigger speed figures in routes than in her seven furlong races, so she should like the distance.  The fact that she hasn’t run a triple digit figure at any distance counts big against her here.  11-1.

5. Trainer Billy2shoe (19%) raced Big Bad Benkovak (Pulpit x Dehere) eight times as a two year old before she broke her maiden.  She’s done better this year, picking up three wins including a sprint stakes and a nine furlong allowance race last out.  There are legitimate questions about class with her, but she does have a stalking style that fits the field and the history of the race.  Last couple speed figures have been OK, but she needs to step it up another level.  11-1.

6. So, what is the story with Armed With Money (Military x Shadeed)?  Her win in the Bluegrass Oaks was no fluke – she was the second choice, and she is still the number one rated three year old filly.  She followed the Bluegrass with a terrible Black Middle Flower, and after looking like she was coming back around with a second in the Grade I Hummingbird, she never ran a lick as the second choice last time in the Grade I Birmingham.  She shortens up a bit and that looks wise.  Trainer Monksfield (7%) might consider a vacation for this filly if she does not respond today.  As noted above, this race has never been kind to deep closers.  A decent showing today will put her over the $1 million mark.  9-1.
7. Crabby Patties (Pikepass x Danehill) had five wins in her busy eleven race two year old season.  As a three year old, she’s winless.  She returns after an eight week layoff for Inzaman (9%), who manages a two horse stable.  The layoff comes after a miserable run in the Grade II First State.  If we ignore that race, does she look competitive here?  She runs early, which we like, but her form and speed figures justify her odds, longest in the race.  25-1.
8. Part Exchange (Dixieland Band x Unbridled) ran a big figure last time in an allowance against the boys, and one of the best trainers in the game, Foxon5 (28%), brings her back to the same distance of her last graded victory, The Timber Stakes, where she rallied past Muscle Shoals for the win.  Her last two stakes tries were terrible, but that looks like it’s behind her.  Her best efforts have come from just off the pace, a strategy that has won three of the five Little Evils.  8-1.
9. Classic Jacklad (Sakhee x Dixieland Band) faces Armed With Money for the third straight race.  The Jacklad (14%) trainee finished behind Armed two races back, but beat her last time – not that a tenth place finish is anything to brag about.  Put a line through that last race, and she looks good: Five wins in her first five dirt races followed by a third in a Grade I on a “good” surface.  There are many in here who can run triple digit figures, and the average winning figure has been 109.  This one has yet to top 94, so she has to step it up, but the odds are probably too generous.  Early/Pressing style.  17-1.
10. Ten of the top 100 three year old fillies are in this race.  Raider Is Class (Razeen x Mr. Prospector) is rated 94.  The Glennwins (10%) trainee comes here off of two straight triple digit speed figures in open allowance routes.  She’s winless in six stakes tries and has never been in graded company before, but recent form and a pressing style make her one that would be no surprise to pick up a minor share.  13-1.
11. Ermington Perfect (Pleasantly Perfect x Machiavellian) has only two wins in 16 starts, but has been regularly cashing minor awards in stakes, including ones at this level.  Again, the 2ndChoice (12%) trainee does not look like a threat to win here, but third?  There’s not a filly here, including this one, that couldn’t finish third.  18-1.
12. Broadway Angel (Vindication x Fappiano) could not make headway against a speed duel last time in the Cheap and Easy Stakes.  The beaten favorite, out of TheLeague (11%) stable, gets favorite status again today.  She looked so sharp off of her two races prior to the Cheap and Easy, and the pace scenario was so much in her favor, that it seems she has no excuse for that race, and we will gladly grab any excuse to go against a favorite.  5-1.
13. In a different universe (real life), you occasionally run across a horse that alternates good and bad races, and the trick is to bet them after the bad races.  In this universe, that may not work so well, but Genna Lou Hoo (Rahy x Gone West) offers an opportunity for those who want to try it.  Her last eight speed figures have gone: 98-87-92-71-97-95-105-88.  The Marilyn847 (14%) trainee has a pattern that says, “Good race coming.”  On the other hand, she hasn’t won since her first race of the year, and the “bad race” last time was really bad.  If she is to win, she needs to overcome the history of the race and the similar styles of several fillies that have been superior to her.  9-1.
14. Casa Bonita (Forestry x Capote) has only three wins in her 15 starts, and hasn’t won in her last eight starts, but the Ravencard (9%) trained filly is ranked fifth in the world for her ability to finish in the money in stakes just like this one.  After five Grade I stakes, she actually drops in class for this.  Everyone remembers who wins the really big ones.  Bluegrass Oaks? Armed With Money.  A half length behind her in second was Casa Bonita.  Likes to come from well off the pace, and shows a good race/bad race alternating pattern that says, “Good race.”  8-1.

Morning Line: 12-1-14-8

Timmn’s Picks: 8-1-14-10