Charles Town Classic

The only grade one race this weekend will be run in Pennsylvania on Saturday.  Fourteen older males will contest the Charles Town Classic at a mile and one eighth for a purse of $750,000.  The field includes two previous grade one winners, North of the Wall and Oil on Display but also some relatively lightly raced runners including Seattle Stockings and Swansea Moon.  The favorite is Ozzy Chance, a very consistent five year old who is looking for his first graded stakes win.  Let’s take a look at the field.   #1 Swansea Moon                                           8/1 Swansea Moon is a four year old with only twelve starts but he’s accomplished quite a bit in that relatively short time.  Last July the Malibu Moon colt won the Grade Three Colorado Sophomore Classic at a mile and one eighth with a 112 speed against fellow three year olds.  He bounced in his following start, a grade two, and was given a solid three month vacation by trainer swanseared.  He returned in December finishing second in an allowance with a 116 speed.  His two starts this year have been eye-popping in every respect except that he didn’t win either of them.  He ran second in a listed with a 114 speed and second again in the Grade Two Jai Alai Park Handicap with a 116.  In most of his races he’s sat just off the pace early but in the Jai Alai found himself over eleven lengths behind at the half but was not discouraged and still made a strong run.   #2 Aqraam                                          25/1 Aqraam is one of only two horses in this field not to have one a stakes race previously and his odds are reflective of that.  The four year old son of Aqlaam has only three wins from fifteen starts and none in the last twelve months.  He did finish third in a grade two as a three year old in August but he was well-beaten in that start and his more recent races do not inspire confidence.  So far this year he has been off the board in a listed, last in a grade one and most recently third in an allowance race.  Aqraam’s highest lifetime speed is a 106, which he’s hit three times.  He’ll need to improve leaps and bounds to be competitive here but anything’s possible in the sim.   #3 Irish Astrology                                             17/1 Irish Astrology enters off an impressive win in the Grade Two Spurs Handicap, the first graded score of his career.  That race was a mile and one eighth as well and he ran a 113 speed to get the victory.  It was his second start of the year, the first was a facile allowance score in January.  The four year old son of Astrology has been knocking on the door for a while now.  After winning the Blazing Saddles Kentucky Derby last May he finished third in two straight grade ones before falling off form and being given a rest by trainer mtklegacy.  That time off has resulted in a much improved runner who could just be sitting on a big race at a long price.   #4 Seattle Stockings                                        8/1 Seattle Stockings is the most lightly raced horse in the field with only ten starts but he’s won six times and run second in two others.  It is somewhat amazing that this colt hasn’t tried graded company before.  In his last three starts he’s run speeds of 116, 116 and 119 respectively, winning the most recent two races.  Those were both listed runs at a mile and one eighth and those were his only two starts of the year.  The regally bred Awesome Again four year old seems to have a very bright future in front of him.  He’ll likely be towards the back of the pack early but his wicked turn of foot will see him closing late.   #5 Factual Evidence                                        13/1 Factual Evidence is the only six year old in the field.  The son of Unbridled’s Song won the Grade Three Mohammed Ali Stakes last April with a 114 speed.  That was his first and so far only graded score and was just a point off his career best speed of 115.  After falling off form in August Factual Evidence was given a break until January of this year.  He ran an even fifth in his first start of the year which is probably to be expected off such a lengthy rest.  He rebounded to win two allowance races at a mile and one eighth, the first with a 97 speed and the second with a 107.  Prior to his Mohammed Ali score last season he had prepped in an allowance and ran a 111 speed so he’s shown he is capable of turning a strong allowance run into a bigger graded run.   #6 Kyger Station                                               9/1 Kyger Station started this year off right winning his first stakes and first graded in the Grade Two Jimmy Pasqual at a mile and one sixteenth.  He ran a 114 speed that day and earned his first victory from three tries over an off track.  Unfortunately the four year old son of Broken Vow has not done as well in his subsequent two starts.  He was fourth in the Grade One Glenn Handicap, running a 111 speed but most recently was seventh in the Grade Two Saints Handicap with a 108 speed.  He does have a lifetime high speed of 118, which he earned while winning an allowance last October so he is capable of running with these types.   #7 Nasty Haack                                 15/1 Nasty Haack is a beautifully bred four year old son of Sea the Stars.  He has yet to win a stakes race in his fifteen career start but in fairness he only made his stakes debut in his last start.  That race was the Grade Three Razorback Cap at a mile and one sixteenth and he closed from well back in the pack to finish fifth in the race while running a 110 speed.  Since switching to dirt last October Nasty Haack has three wins from five starts.  All of those wins came in allowances and he ran 106, 112 and 107 speeds in those wins.  It’s tough for a horse to go from allowance races directly into a graded race so now that Nasty Haack has gotten his feet wet he may be set to improve in this race.   #8 Ozzy Chance                                6/1 Ozzy Chance is the favorite in this spot, even though he has yet to win a graded stakes.  The five year old son of Redoute’s Choice is a three time listed winner, with his last stakes win coming in August of last year.  His best finish in a graded race came in May of 2014 when he was a solid second in the Grade Three Soupy Sails Classic behind the classy Unbridled D’oro who followed that win up with a grade one score in his next start.  Since June of last year Ozzy Chance has run a 111 speed or better in six starts with the highest being a 115.  After being beaten by a nose in a listed last December Ozzy Chance was given a three month holiday.  He’s only had one start this year and that came when he dominated a five horse allowance field going wire to wire and winning for fun with a 111 speed.  Typically Ozzy Chance runs from much further off the pace but he showed his class by going to the front in that spot.   #9 A P Ridge                                       13/1 A P Ridge is a former claimer who scored his only stakes victory in November in the Liken It Local IV Championships.  He was going six and one half furlongs that day and he has significantly more success in sprint races with five of his seven victories coming at distances of less than one mile.  A P Ridge has been first or second in his last nine starts, an impressive run which started when he was switched to dirt by trainer Wurlitzer (A P Ridge had run fourth in his debut as a two year old which was his only prior dirt start).  A P Ridge has run three times so far in 2015, winning the first two and running second in the most recent race.  The last two of those races were at one mile and include a 110 speed which ties his career best.   #10 Sea the Slew                                              8/1 Sea the Slew is another son of Sea the Stars who has found success on the dirt.  The four year old colt has won five times and finished third twice in nine dirt starts.  He ended 2014 with four straight victories including the Grade Three Fall Stakes at a mile and one sixteenth which he won with a 115 speed.  He’s run three times this year and gotten better with each start.  He was fourth in a grade two, third in another grade two and most recently won the Grade Two Saints Handicap with another 115 speed.  If he continues his upward trend this colt has a strong shot in this spot.   #11 North of the Wall                                     10/1 North of the Wall is one of two prior grade one winners in this field.  The five year old son of Special Week has actually won at the top level twice.  The first win came in 2013 when he beat three year olds in the Eddie Haskell Stakes and the most recent was last August when he won the Hit Me Handicap.  Both of those races came at a mile and one eighth, a distance he has not run in two starts this year.  At a sixteenth of a mile shorter he was an allowance winner but at a sixteenth more he could only muster a third in another allowance.  His speeds for those two races were 104 and 103, respectively.  North of the Wall obviously has class in spades but needs to prove he has not lost a step this year.   #12 Command Master                                   12/1 Command Master won his first stakes race in his first start this season.  Going a mile and one sixteenth he took the Grade Two San Valenzuala Breeders Bowl Stakes with a 113 speed.  That was actually one point slower than his career best of 114 which he ran in his final start of 2014, a listed stakes at a mile in which he finished second beaten only ¼ length.  That was actually the fourth time he had been in the money in a listed without winning so this colt has had class throughout his career.  The four year old son of Candy Ride was most recently seventh in his grade one debut going one mile but he should improve going an extra furlong in this spot.   #13 Oil on Display                                             7/1 The second grade one winner in the field, Oil on Display earned that distinction in the GoodyGood last October.  That race, run at a mile and one eighth saw him close from tenth early to win by ¼ length with a 117 speed.  He’d actually run faster in his previous start, a grade two which he won with a career best 118 speed.  Since the GoodyGood Oil on Display was off the board in both the Breeders’ Bowl Classic and the Japan Cup Dirt.  He had a two month break between the Japan Cup Dirt and his only start this year.  That race was the Grade One Glenn Handicap in which he finished second behind superstar I Won’t Look Back.  The four year old son of Star Witness ran a 112 speed that day.   #14 Going Medieval                                        9/1 Going Medieval closed 2014 with two wins at a mile and one eighth.  In October he won his first stakes race, a listed with a 113 speed.  He followed that up with a win in the Grade Two Lewis & Clark Stakes with a 114 speed.  Given two months off the five year old son of Dynaformer returned to the races in February when he won a one mile allowance race with another 114 speed.  Most recently he was tenth in the Grade Two Saints Handicap.  He’ll have to bounce back to factor here.   Good luck to all!