Wide Open Field Runs for the White Lily
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PP 1 – Sland Gram (Grand Slam x Machiavellian) was bred and is trained by bigb. This girl has been a router for 11 of her 13 lifetime starts, and those two sprints were the 1st and 2nd in her career. While her pedigree screams sprint capability, she’ll need to do a lot better than those sprinting numbers way back when. There’s enough possibility of that to make this one an interesting value at 9/1, especially on the back end of exotics or as a saver.
PP 2 – Mambo Birdie (Kingmambo x Storm Bird), out of the knowlton stable, is the favorite at 9/2, and comes in with the most consistent speed numbers in this field. Four of her last five outings came back in triple digits, resulting in 4 wins and a place. Hot horse, and has the class as well. There are several horses very capable here of matching or even beating Mambo Birdie’s speed numbers on a given day, but this girl gives her best race almost every single time out. Only bad news for this girl could be that every horse here that’s hit triple digits is an On-The-Lead type. This Birdie can stalk too, but a suicide pace is very possible here, which could burn out the leaders, including the favorite.
PP 3 – Sheikorza (Unbridled Song x Alysheba), a laramie trainee, is the longest shot in the field at 61/1. She hasn’t shown she can run with these speed figs, she hasn’t raced against this class since her third race (where she finished 13 back in a Grade I) and her jockey has a 6% win rate. Perhaps a bit outclassed here.
PP 4 – Greek Ransom (Red Ransom x Sword Dance(IRE)) is a lightly raced (this will be her 7th lifetime start) filly trained by slewsback who can definitely run with these, but a) seems to have slightly better luck at a bit further than 7, and b) also likes to be on the lead. Is still learning enough to show improvement though, and might have some major value at 14/1, especially if she can rate a bit off of these.
PP 5 – Sunday Brake(JPN) (Sunday Break(JPN) x Danzig), from the karmakaze stable, is another solid, dependable filly who rarely runs a bad race. She’s still another early speed demon, and most of her best work has come in ungraded stakes. Remains to be seen if she is Grade I stock.
PP 6 – La Cosa Nostra(IRE) (El Prado(IRE) x Machiavellian) is an interesting 16/1 choice from the theagakhan stable. His last time out, he shortened up to 7.5 furlongs to take a win in an ungraded stakes race, after a couple of outings where he gassed out at 10f. A good, solid, but not suicidal pace may help this stalker to some box-car type payouts. One to keep an eye on.
PP 7 – Queen’s Vow (Broken Vow x Barathea(IRE)) is a laterunner trainee. Unfortunately, she hasn’t shown her stable’s namesake trait yet. This is (surprise) still another early runner. And she doesn’t have the triple digits yet in her background that she’ll probably need to be a factor here. Maybe a rabbit to press the pace.
PP 8 – Proven (With Approval x Explodent), bred and trained by gulch99, has an excellent riding style for this field. That’s the good news. The bad news is that this is another horse without triple digits in her resume so far, and she’ll need the ride of her life and a suicide pace to take this. Not to mention she’s never faced anywhere near this level of competition before. However, with a field of this much early speed, anything can happen.
PP 9 – Sing To Me (Belong to Me x Peintre Celebre(IRE)) is an astapor trainee, and might just be the best value to take to the betting windows at 13/1. She’s a closer (one of the few), she’s red hot (four wins in a row, and five of her last six), and the speed figs she’s been showing have been on the upswing her last three races. Another improvement, and this little lady may well run down her impressive rivals.
PP 10 – Cocoa(IRE) (Swain(IRE) x Miesque’s Son). Speaking of hot horses. Six lifetime races, five wins and a place. Don’t come much hotter than that. The only rough spots could be pace (yet another who wants/needs to be on the lead (Of 24 lifetime calls, she’s been off the lead in exactly two. Both of which were in the one race she lost), and perhaps class. This will be the first Graded stake attempt for this talented filly. This nyranger charge will be prominent in her division before too long. Might not be just yet though.
PP 11 – Crypto Mesa (Sky Mesa x Cryptoclearance), from the sjmeola6 stables, is an expert at the turf sprint, AND is 3/3 on off courses. The only thing that would give me any pause at all is this is her first outing against Graded company. However, at 6/1, even with her mostly front-running style, this one should be in the mix as well.
PP 12 – Storm Force (Storm Cat x Mr. Prospector). This royally-bred lady from the foxon stables has shown the ability to get the speed figs necessary to win here (a 103 and a 106 in her last 8 races) as well as versatility in distance. The issue here is which Storm Force shows up: The one who won the Grade III Haley’s Comet with a 106 SF, or the one who ran a 92 in the Grade I 1000 Guineas to finish 7th the next time out? Definitely talented enough here for a price if she comes to race.
PP 13 – Tequila Shooter (Aldebaran x Dixieland Band) is from the sdmf stable, and is yet another who loves to be out in front, and also has some consistency issues (100, 86, 100 in three consecutive stakes races). Still, if the pace sorts out and this one can rate, does possess the talent to win here as well. The outside post though, probably won’t help her save ground.
PP 14 – Glen Riddle Farm (Unbridled’s Song x Sharpen Up(GB)), an mdterps trainee, is a stone closer, and does have some speed to boot. But she’s never faced anything close to this level of competition. In fact, her only stakes at all, an ungraded one, she got hurt in and pulled up. Should be passing tired horses at the end, but probably not enough to cash a check.