Dearest Debbie Heads Maine Juvenile Filly Market

The regular stakes race in Maine this week is the Light Locking Stakes. A six and a half furlong event for two year old fillies, it will be run on a fast dirt track. Although only seven juveniles have accepted for the race, it is sure to be a closely contested affair with most of the runners having a chance of collecting the major share of the $50,000 on offer.

The race is named after Light Locking, a stakes winning daughter of Twilight Agenda / Icecapade.

The early market is:

2/1 – Dearest Debbie

5/2 – Rock Solid Star

7/2 – Sister Dew, Concentrated

6/1 – Westward Bound

15/1 – Quiet Nights

43/1 – Attentionarian

Looking through the field in betting order:

# 1 – Dearest Debbie – 2/1. There’s simply no reason why this exceptional filly should not head the betting here. Two wins from two, both over this trip in the standard maiden, allowance formation, which virtually necessitates elevation to stakes racing in young runners. Her wins have both been comfortable, with a length and a bit to spare on each occasion, and her 82 speed rating last start is the highest recorded to date of any of the entrants. theprofit5 bred Dearest Debbie by sending the six time stakes placed mare Debbie Dearest (Seattle Slew / Prized) to Came Home. The result is already the best performed of her three progeny to date. She’ll be well ridden by top jockey I Poindexter, who will probably settle her just behind the pace, on the rail, where she’ll be perfectly positioned for the run home. 

#3 – Rock Solid Star – 5/2. Following a tight but tough maiden debut victory, marineboy advanced this filly straight up to the stakes ranks. She performed admirably when second behind Crafty Coven in Illinois on a rain affected track four weeks ago, and that second ranks as the highest finish in a black type race from any of this week’s starters. Rock Solid Star is a son of Rock Hard Ten, based on Rhythm and Flow (Storm Cat / Fu Peg), a moderately performed winner of two from 22. A slight question mark surrounds the stepping up in distance, as she’s indicated that she’d had enough towards the end of each of her two prior starts, but connections have been able to secure the services of premier rider G.Giant, so he should be able to coax every last inch from the filly.

#5 – Sister Dew – 7/2. Sister Dew has been to the races three times, and looks to be developing into a runner in need of at least this far in distance. After a comfortable six furlong, all the way maiden victory by a length and a quarter on debut, she dropped back to five furlongs for her second run, where she lost the early lead, but held on gamely to retain second pace. Ridden just off the pace and stretched out to the distance she runs here, her third run saw her finish strongly to again record a win by a length and a bit. The time of 1.18.0 translated to a speed rating of 80, equal second best on the form page and that allowance win stands her in good stead for the step up in class this weekend. Scratchbred by ce5s97p, Sister Dew carries the quality blood of Tale of the Cat / Wild Again / Capote. Smart jockey M. McClendon will ride her well, and should have her well placed for the final assault

# 6 – Concentrated – 7/2. This filly, with an unblemished one from one, could well be supported late in the betting, as the price on offer seems overly generous considering the ease of her maiden victory. After settling towards the rear in Maryland six weeks ago, she stormed home in the stretch to burn off her dozen rivals, covering the six furlongs in 1.11.6. Concentrated, raced by acote7, is a daughter of Pulpit, from Spread Connection (Point Given/Forest Wildcat), a moderately performed mare part owned by affiliate stable acote3. Jockey K.ORn is having a good run this season, and the increase in distance should definitely suit. Concentrated may appear to drop out too far early, but don’t be surprised to witness a withering final sectional.

# 4 – Westward Bound – 6/1. The most experienced runner here this weekend, Westward Bound will be lining up for the seventh time and will appreciate dropping back from Graded competition. Since her moderate debut on the grass, she’s finished on the board in all three non graded starts, and may have been underestimated by the bookmakers who could be overlooking that fact. Her form page, on first inspection, looks a bit up and down, but even in those higher class events, she’s never been far from the winner, so she certainly deserves plenty of thought in this evenly matched field. Westward Bound carries classic Australian blood up front, having been scratchbred by slammin, using Lonhro / Redoute’s Choice / Gone West and is one of only two stakes placed runners taking part in the event. She’s capable of running a big race.

# 7 – Quiet Nights – 15/1. Quiet Nights looks to be facing a big task here, having beaten only two runners home in her two previous black type appearances. Connections will be pinning their hopes on the switch to the dirt being the key to a turnaround, and of course, as she’s untried on the surface, she does represent an unknown quantity. Bred by owner nightsky, she carries the blood of Eavesdropper / Quiet American / Zafonic. She won’t get my money, but who knows?

# 2 – Attentionarian – 43/1. A mammoth first up task set by owner breeder sadlier. Although Redoute’s Choice is possibly as good as any sire on the planet, the dam Fantastic Alphabet (Chuck Tilley / Starmaker Machine) carries non-descript lines, did nothing on the track, and her earlier offspring couldn’t get out of his own way. Attentionarian looks to be aiming far too high for her debut.

Selections: – I’m tipping Concentrated first, primarily because I believe the 7/2 to be exceptional value. The favorite, Dearest Debbie, looks the hardest to beat, and in a tight decision, I’ll give Sister Dew the nod ahead of Westward Bound, who could represent the best across the board value if I’m wrong.

For those having a bet – Trifecta:  1, 6 / 1, 6 / 3, 4, 5, 7. will cost $8 for a $1 unit