The CAN I GRASS Stakes
Race ID:2972.3616
Race # 16
The CAN I GRASS Stakes
Stakes
8 furlongs
Yielding Turf
$75,000
all horses, 3y old
PP Age Horse Owner Odds Pedigree
1 3M SKY LOW LOW jk52 6/1 Sky Mesa x Northern Baby x
Record: 13 races: 5-2-1 (wins: MSW + 2 allowances + 2 Stakes)
Interesting breeding and an interesting Damsire: looks to be very usefull for what he costs. This colt has been running very well and very constant: posted a 98 SP in a Stakes he won (that was a turfmile by the way) late at 2y old and his last race he posted a 99. He also was on the podium two times in a G3 so everyone will have to watch out. The offtrack looks to be of no issue to him.
2 3M FANTASTIC MUSE borden 7/1 Fantastic Light x
Record: 15 races: 5-0-1 (wins: MSW + 2 allowances + G3 + G2)
Do not be blinded with the G3 and G2 he already won: these were early at 2y old and we all know that with a bit of luck these graded Stakes can be won and are not more than glorified allowanceraces. After that G2 it took him 10 races to win again and meanwhile only managed to finish 1 time in third place. His last two races were fine and his trainer wisely entered him in allowances again which he both won: it is indeed time again now he has gained confidence and form to enter him again in a Stakes. Already ran on yielding turf (in the equinics) and that was not good. I have my doubts with this one.
3 3M BBORS BABY TUNE bbor3 8/1 Skip Away x Mtoto x Nijinsky II
Record: 14 races: 4-2-1 (wins: MSW + 3 Stakes)
I have to say the same for this one as for the former horse: do not be blinded by the Stakeswins. I do not know what happened to this colt: he had a very good first year (maybe he ran too much?), but this year he has not done too much and I feel that if the trainer would drop him in level he can again improve. He still has the allowances to go so I really would drop him there first before trying further in the Stakes. Has not been posting too bad speeds, but there definitely is something going wrong in his performances this year.
4 3M NUREYERA(IRE) dixieracer 4/1 Grandera x Gone West x Nureyev
Record: 13 races: 6-3-0 (wins: MSW + 3 Stakes)
The bookiesfavourite for today’s race and I silently agree: is in form and won his last three races. Last time posted 106. It is true that he has more experience in the sprints but I do notice that he has changed from being a frontrunner to a backrunner and he seems to be ready for the classic distance. High favourite for me too.
5 3M I’M A LUMBERJACK bookworm 6/1 Woodman x T.M. Opera O x In The Wings
Record: 16 races: 4-6-2: (wins: MSW + 3 allowances)
His mother got paired with a very good Sire and it looks like this 3y old is on the verge of maturity. He has been improving lately and is posting +90 Speeds in his last four races. His owner is right to check whether he has improved sufficiently to start competing in the Stakes on turf. Only ran on good ground once but did a good effort there. Could surprise in this race.
6 3M TREBRE MACHIA(IRE) bdhp 11/1 Peintre Celebre x Machiavellian x Caerleon
Record: 17 races: 4-2-5: (wins: 2 allowances + 2 Stakes)
Had a pretty good debutyear and his trainer this year cleverly managed to sneak him into small fields. That is where he got the points from but looking at his speeds he will not be able to make a fist in this race and compete for top 3. The bookies look to have the same opinion. Did post his best speed in the last race but that was a small field low purse allowance and does not mean anything for this race.
7 3M FUZZY RAINBOW dundey7 5/1 Rainbow Quest x Storm Cat x Darshaan
Record: 19 races: 6-5-1 (wins: MSW + 1 allowance + 4 Stakes)
Bred out of a mare which preferred the dirtsprint. Adding Rainbow Quest threw some more turfinfluences and stamina in the foal but it is clear that up to now he had all his successes in sprinting. Has been running in Stakes since his 4th race. He did place himself in the G1 High Flyer Stakes at two:
8 3M FIRE WON jimch8 26/1 Golden Missile x Ile de Bourbon x Coastal
Record: 18 races: 4-1-1: (wins: MSW + 1 allowances + 1 claimer + 1 Starter Allowance)
To be honest I have no idea why this colt was entered in this race. He has only won 1 allowance which was CPU restricted and this guy should only be a claimer or might pick little points in a ALN2X
9 3M HORSE CALLED WAR zewango2 11/1 Pulpit x Alydar x Halo
Record: 14 races: 4-3-0 (wins: MSW + 2 allowances + 1 Stakes)
Bred with 3×4 Raise A Native blood. Debuted on dirt 3 times with not so bad speeds, but his trainer was right to put him on turf and there he improved. He was very competitive in the allowances (let’s forget the G2 he was entered in) and his first Stakes was immediately bingo. Now his last race was not that good to be honest and I feel that this guy is not really improving lately unlike I’M A LUMBERJACK for example. So I give this one not so much of a chance today.
10 3M REFUSE TO TANGO(IRE) commbank 9/2 Refuse To Bend x Kingmambo x Silver Hawk
Record: 15 races: 8-2-1 (wins: MSW + 3 allowances + 3 Stakes + 1 G3)
No need to tango if you are capable to race so good. Debuted at two and even posted a 96SP end of last year which earned him a place in a Stakes. One race later he won his first Stakes in a 81 speed. Has been running very consistently until his last two races: the G1 was over his head and maybe the last race came a bit too soon. He also already won on a wet track and the distance is absolutely no problem. Difficult to judge but I think the race will be a fraction too short for him. He did draw the topjock.
PREDICTION: NUREYERA – FUZZY RAINBOW – REFUSE TO TANGO
OUTSIDER: SKY LOW LOW