Losing Control

PP1 – Pajaro – Bigcoach – G. Neumann – 35/1 – EAAA

Experienced 6yo by Indian Ridge who has won 12 of his 49 starts mainly at starter/claimer level. He began the year off in fairly good form and was picked up by his new owner as a $35k claim 13 weeks ago. In his 3 races for Bigcoach he has been comprehensively beaten in allowance grade and, given that recent run of poor form and the fact that this class looks completely beyond him, he is hard to fancy. A return to claimers looks overdue.

PP2 – Ole Guapa – Ireagle – H. Karma – 11/1 – EAAA

A son of the bargain sire Fred Astaire, but with some sound backlines in his breeding, is Ireagle`s inmate. Claimed for $7.5k from a rival Epsom Downs trainer midway through last season, he has went on to prove a sound investment for his EAAA handler. A career best place when defeated by a nose in the Spectacular Run Stakes over this trip/surface 6 runs back showed he was still improving with age and he also put in a decent effort for a show in a 7f Stakes on his penultimate start. On his day he would be able to mix it with the best of these runners however, considering he ran last week and has had a gruelling schedule recently, his fitness is a major issue and there maybe sharper in this field.

PP3 – Jetliner – Leolh – S. Shady – 18/1 – Epsom D.

The first of the Epsom Downs horse`s is this Australian bargain bred who is curiously ranked 999 in the turf sprinting division. After having a multitude of previous owners, Leolh has gotten the best out of him since claiming him for $7.5k and he has performed well occasionally in allowances. Anything between 6-8 furlongs on turf seems to suit this horse, he can race up with the pace or come from the back and his versatility made him an easy choice for one of these Rez vs Rez heats. He comes here off a good run 4 weeks ago, has had a smooth preparation and he could make a top 5 finish.

PP4 – Maid Marion – Kevoman3 – J. Diggs – 13/1 – EAAA

The first of the fillies is this lovely looking 4yo roan who is by El Prado out of a mare by Roberto. A late starter, her first 2 runs came towards the end of her 3yo year where she showed signs of ability in her 2 runs on dirt (won 8f debut). Switched to grass this year she has continued on the upgrade, picking up 3 7 furlong allowances in a row and she ran better than her finishing position suggested when given a stinker of a ride to finish 11th of 12 on her only try at Stakes level over 6.5f. Her last 3 runs have been fairly average but she is still relatively unexposed, has a bit of class and it would be no surprise to see her rubbing shoulders with some of the opposite sex at the finish.

PP5 – Lennox – Millview2 – C. Crawford – 99/1 – Epsom D.

The rank outsider of the field is this 3yo filly by Bahri who was a $5k claim for her current owner. A personal best SP of 80 probably says it all and she does`nt look good enough to get involved here. 3yo fillies are worst treated in these open allowances and the booking of C. Crawford (2% win average) has made a difficult race to win virtually impossible.

PP6 – Uno Miss – Terjea – T. Smith – 21/1 – Epsom D.

6yo Strategic Mission chestnut mare who has been a great BP earner for Terjea since she was claimed for $4k back in 2004. She has bagged 4 allowances, a 6.5f turf Stakes and has finished in the money on numerous occasions for her new stable. Her SP`s have definately decreased so far this year and, except for a 98 when dropped into claiming class, she has yet to hit a 90+ speed figure. This mare is surely nearing the end of her career and her best days are over but she has had a lighter season than most of these runners and she might sneak a couple of points.

PP7 – LK Thankyou – Bigcoach – S. Ledwith – 9/1 – EAAA

Bigcoach`s second entry is this 4yo Marquetry colt who has looked a shrewd investment for his new owner after being picked up for $35k 13 weeks ago. On his debut for the EAAA residency he was significantly upped in class and ran an eyecatching 7th in a 6.5f turf Stakes and then went on to finish with a place and a show in similar distance/surface/Stakes posting a pair of 100 SP`s. Slightly below par last time, he is another of EAAA`s representatives who has had a hectic race schedule recently and he comes here off a short 2 week break. Loving the surroundings at EAAA, he has improved immensely since joining them and his form this year gives him a big chance in this race but there is a slight question mark over whether he will be at peak fitness.

PP8 – Seacraft – Leolh – F. Sharlow – 30/1 – Epsom D.

Another entry from Epsom Downs Leolh stable is this 4yo son of Salt Lake. Since being claimed for $10k last year he has had an inconsistent run of form in mainly allowances posting SP`s in the 80`s almost all of them in routes. Having posted 2 shows at best in restricted allowances so far this year he does`nt quite look good enough in a field of this stature and, even though the drop in trip may suit, he has alot on his plate.

PP9 – Force The Lot – Stormdanzg – C. Jericho – 9/1 – Epsom D.

This 4yo Allied Forces chestnut colt is another of the field who has been a smart claim for his owner. After winning his first 6 starts as a 3yo last season he was snapped up later on in the year for his current yard for a modest $35k and, after running fairly well in starters, this year he improved enough to finish second in a 7.5f turf Stakes posting a lifetime best 101 SP. He led for much of the way in a mile Stakes last time out and this drop in distance should be to his liking. A 6 week break should have him spot on for this race, he`ll ensure there`s plenty of early pace and he is one for the shortlist.

PP10 – King Rancid – Ascot – R. Freedman – 8/1 – Epsom D.

Joint second favourite is this 8 year old veteren performer who is by the classy sire Kingmambo and out of a Roberto mare. At the end of his 3yo year Ascot`s horse picked up a major injury which saw him sidelined for 3 years and it is a testimony to his owner`s resilience that he is fully recovered and here still racing. Doubts about whether this horse would be able to run after such an absence were firmly quashed when, last season on only his second run back, he blitzed a 6.5f turf allowance with a career best 103sp. So far this year he has won an owner restricted allowance over this course and distance (2nd Force The Lot, 4th Special Pine and 5th Jetliner reoppose here), has ran fairly well in a couple of Stakes and was only narrowly touched off at Finland last time out. Very pacey, he will be up there early on and it`s very likely he`ll be thereabouts at the finish.

PP11 – Out Of Control – Kevoman – R. Harzheim – 4/1 – EAAA

Clear favourite and choice of the leading jockey is, unsurprisingly, this 4yo son of Mt. Livermore from the well respresented Kevoman stable. A winner of 6 out of 7 juvenile starts this colt was a highly promising 2yo of 2004 when winning 5 Stakes races in a row but he has subsequently failed to live up to such lofty expectations and, although he has ran well in some classy races, he looks just below Graded level. A place in a G3 was his best effort of his 3yo campaign where he won a pair of allowances but failed to win a Stakes. This year he had been running admirably consitently from 7-8f in Allowances (winning 3 and picking up a place in 3) before being stepped back up into Stakes grade where he ran very well on both occasions (2nd and 3rd). A worthy market leader he is the class of the race but, even though he has bits and pieces of form at this distance, he clearly prefers 7-8f and he may struggle to sit close to the pace which he seems to like most. No doubt he`ll be flying at the finish and is the one to beat but he is, by no means, a certainty.

PP12 – Little Muscle – Claysam – A. Edwards – 46/1 – Epsom D.

3yo full brother, by Septieme Ciel, to the G1 placed and dual Stakes winning racemare She`s My friend. He looked like he was going the right way after winning 2 from 5 as as 2yo but had a disasterous start to this season when finishing well behind in a couple of allowance routes. A drop in trip to sprints (the first since he won his 5f debut) has worked the magic and he has won his last 2, including a hot allowance race over the minimum trip 4 weeks ago. The 3yo`s are likely to struggle against there elders in this type of race but this colt is on the up, has plenty of improvement in him at this distance and those odds of 46/1 look very generous.

PP13 – Scoobs Awards – Newscoobi – F. Flav – 16/1 – Epsom D.

4yo colt by Academy Award out of an average, but well bred, racemare (Seattle Slew – Alydar). Having only won 2 allowances and a MSW throughout his career of 18 races he boasts a pretty unimpressive win/run ratio and this could possibly be the toughest field he has ever faced. He generally runs mid 80 SP`s and, frankly that would be nowhere near good enough here however, having posted a career high 98 on his penultimate start and a 95 last time, he is clearly in good heart and may be able to pick up a few points for his residency.

PP14 – Special Pine – Jrth – T. Liverson – 28/1 – Epsom D.

Well bred 4yo Pine Bluff filly was a maiden after 9 starts when picked up at the auction by Jrth for an undisclosed fee halfway through last season. He soon broke his duck for his new trainer in a MSW and rounded his 3yo year off with victory in a NW2L allowance over 6.5f on turf. Largely disappointing this year, he is another of the field who recorded a personal best SP in his last race and he may be coming good at the right time of year for his residency. All things considered, he`ll need another SP PB if he is to make the frame here.

PP15 – Hell On Hooves – Scootboy – G. Clinton – 70/1 – EAAA

Rookie trainer Scootboy is represented by this 4yo colt by Fasliyev who he claimed for $2.5k towards the back end of last year. Yet to win in 11 attempts mainly in claimers since he was purchased, he is way out of his depth in this field and he looks more of a sporting entry by those at EAAA.

PP16 – Wolverines – Zwhisper – S. Tevex – 18/1 – EAAA

This 6yo colt by Treasure Island has racked up a huge 57 starts throughout his simlife, has won 13 and once posted a 110 SP during the height of his career. He was an unusual claim for Zwhisper for $50k at the beginning of this year as, after 49 races, there did`nt appear to be much left in his locker but a BP boosting debut win in a 100k claimer and further wins in 2 Starters and an Allowance have shown he was worth every penny. In the context of this race this horse should struggle as he has`nt won under 7.5f for almost 2 years and his best form lately has been over much longer than todays 6.5 furlongs. He`s very hard to fancy and odds of 18/1 look plenty short enough.

PP17 – Rainburst – Kevoman3 – T. Nugent – 12/1 – EAAA

The third and final entry for Kevoman`s stables is this stoutly bred 4yo colt by Rainbow Quest out of a Dynaformer mare. This chestnut looked a potentially smart future stayer after winning over a mile on only his 2nd start at 2 however a drop into sprints 2 races into his 3 year old campaign clearly showed he had plenty of speed to offer aswell and he went on to take a 7.5f turf Stakes. He never finished last year off as well as he began it and this season, in the main, he has been contesting restricted Allowances and has been performing inconsistently. A poor effort last time out does`nt inspire much confidence and he is yet another of EAAA`s entries who`s fitness is suspect.

PP18 – Bunny Go North – Magoo2912 – J. Henson – 20/1 – Epsom D.

This 4yo Bestyoucanbe colt is having his first run for Magoo after he was bought for $133k at auction 6 weeks back. Coming off a break of almost a year it`s more than likely he`ll struggle to compete after such a long time away from the track and he`ll strip fitter on his next outing.

PP19 – Tycoon Gallery – Pogs4 – J. Plumber – 36/1 – EAAA

3yo colt by Anabaa who was acquired by his current trainer 3 runs back after winning a $10k claimer. His 2 runs for Pogs4 have been good efforts with a show and then, last time out, a win both in restricted Allowances. Although he`s unexposed and still getting better life is going to be very tough for him, against older horses for the first time, in a field as good as this.

PP20 – Quite Right – Gamehhh – Y. Rhino – 8/1 – EAAA

Drawing the outside post and second favourite is this bargain bred veteren. A Grade 2, Grade 3 and multiple Stakes winner during the peak of his career, the $10k spent to claim this horse has proved to be a massively successful investment for Gamehhh. He showed he ws no backnumber with a Stakes winning 103 SP at the beginning of this year and he has continued to put in some very good performances between 6-7f on turf. Outgunned in a G3 only last week he has the form, the pace and the class to get involved with these the question is…. does he have the fitness.

Summary

A very competitive event is on the cards and there are a number of horses in with a chance. Clear favourite Out Of Control is one of the few EAAA runners who has had a suitable preparation however the drop in trip, and on a course that tends to favour frontrunners, is not ideal and the winner may come from elsewhere.

LK Thankyou`s recent form has been very good and it would normally give him a huge chance but, like almost all of EAAA`s squad, his racing schedule leading up to this race has been somewhat questionable and he could`nt be tipped with confidence.

Epsom Downs` residency appear to have the upper hand here (what? who`s biased?). From posts 9 and 10 Force The Lot and King Rancid both look very useful and their style of racing should suit this race and track. The former should appreciate the drop in distance but the marginal preference is for King Rancid, the oldest horse in the line up.

At big odds, the 3yo Little Muscle is one to keep an eye on.

1 – King Rancid

2 – Out Of Control

3 – Force The Lot

4 – LK Thankyou