Hang on to your Hats: The GI Dancer Cap Draws Divisional Heavyweights to New York
The rankings tell the whole story. Look through the Older Filly and Mare Sprint rankings, and then look at this field. We have the number 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 12th ranked older mares, and 5th ranked 3yo female sprinter, plus the 8th ranked older female turf sprinter in the game. In short, we have the virtual equivilant of a Breeders’ Bowl Filly and Mare Sprint race. Everyone is here, and the world is watching. 7 panels on a fast main track separate these 14 fillies from a $350,000 purse and a chance to head into the fall as the leading female threat for the Breeders’ Bowl Sprint. Let’s take a look at the field. PP Horse ID Horse Owner Jockey Odds Comments 1 PARTY THIEF 6/1 Three horses go postward today at 6/1, and this one ranks a huge chance. Rated 8th in the division, this daughter of Cat Thief comes in well rested off a G2 win in her last start. Likes to lay just off the pace and finish strongly; she’ll be around at the finish under a 12% jock. 2 BABY TROY 12/1 Comes into the race off of a disappointing 4th place finish against ungraded stakes company last time out, and while her speed figures say she has an outside shot to be competitive, it’s a deep field and she’s in a prime spot to bounce, having seen her speed figures jump 11 points in her last race (89-100). Tough to see her running in the money. 3 PUENTELARRA 14/1 Absolutely unfathomable that a daughter of Sadler’s Wells is here rating a great shot in a G1 race over seven furlongs, but she’s ranked 3rd in the division for a reason. Backs up from 10 furlongs last time out, and she’s winless in her last eight starts, but she looks like the main speed here and she may have a chance at long odds. 4 THE AUS BOSS(AUS) 8/1 $1.2 million earner is a G1 winner on both surfaces, and with just 11 starts, may not have reached her best yet. She’s bred to go longer than this trip, and her best efforts have been over a mile, but with the right pace situation, she may be the most explosive and talented horse in the field and she’ll be flying through the stretch. 5 STAKED CLAIM 6/1 A deserving favorite, she owns the number one ranking in the division, and an almost spotless record in her last 6 races, a 7th in the Bluegrass Distaff Sprint (G2). Other than that, its hard to fault her. Seven furlongs is her trip, and if she runs anywhere near her best, she’ll have a solid stalking position, get first jump on the leaders, and dare anyone to catch her late. If she makes the lead turning for home, don’t expect her to come back, especially under a jock like Lawton. 6 EURO RUNNER 12/1 Pure speed: she doesn’t know how to rate, and so far it hasn’t hurt her much, though she’s done most of her running of late in lesser company. Her last race was maybe her most encouraging, where she sat just off the pace. However, I need to see more before I assume her capable of repeating that performance, and I expect her to be winging it on the lead today, probably to be swallowed up by closers late. 7 CORZAFFAIR(IRE) 20/1 First of all, she’s better going longer. Second, she’s a three year old. It all adds up to a nearly insurmountable task for her at this juncture; maybe next year. 8 WINE AND WHISKEY 12/1 Only off the board twice in 12 starts, sports 7 wins and 3 seconds from the remaining 10 races, but a pair of those seconds recently have been to Staked Claim. She hasn’t won in 5 straight after winning 7 in a row to start her career, but she’s been knocking on the door. May not break through today, but she should acquit herself well; look for her to pick up a minor award. 9 TREASURE COAST 32/1 Fourth in the three year old equivalent of this race (the G1 Exam Stakes), she takes a jump up in class today facing older for the first time. She was a graded winner against her own age group, but may find these fillies a little hard to handle today. She’s in the same boat as Corzaffair: maybe next year. 10 FOX AND FORTY 8/1 Ranked number two in the division, docpmg has to feel good about having B. Child on top, especially after he won a pair of graded stakes last week, albeit over the lawn (aboard Sunnybank Memorial and Firm King). $1.1 million in the bank for this daughter of Forty Niner, though she’s also winless this term. She’s been in the mix in several competitive races, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if she broke through today. 11 VANGUARD 6/1 Another Forty Niner filly with $1.1 million in the bank. Another great jock on top. And oh yes, almost forgot: much better recent form than Fox and Forty. While the Bluegrass Distaff Sprint (G2) is a black mark on many of these fillies records, it is actually this one’s shining moment. She missed last time out in the Lil’ Leprechaun Dash (G2), finishing 3rd, but was just a half length away from the pair of divisional heavyweight Go O Go and today’s rival Party Thief. If Staked Claim is to be beaten today, this is the most likely conqueror. 12 ROWDY ONE 9/1 Someone tell me where the line is forming to acquire daughters of Forty Niner, because I need me one of them. This one is a third straight daughter of Forty Niner, and like Vanguard, out of a Danzig mare. This one is a very on-and-off type of horse, mixing 110+ speed numbers with numbers in the double digits. If she shows up, she’s a dangerous pace factor, but it’s a tough race and trainer tycodog3 surely has his fingers crossed that the real Rowdy One shows up, because she’ll need to be on the top of her game to have an impact. 13 QUIET HOLLANDIA 12/1 12/1 on a horse named Hollandia? Furthermore, she’s got a jockey on board that some swear could bring a donkey home first in the Breeders’ Bowl Classic right now. R. Foster is enjoying a career year, and last week took both the Eddie Haskell on Squal Me Halo and the Shiny Gem Stakes on top of Vindiana Jones. Ranked 12th in the division, and everyone knows that a horse named Hollandia isn’t here for the scenery. Will surely be dangerous through the stretch. 14 LA SWIFT 10/1 Ranked 5th in the division, this daughter of Dixieland Band is also blessed with copious amounts of early speed, though she is 7 years old and making her 39th start. Flip a coin on this one today: she’s either set to peak off of a 108 speed figure last out that completes an ascension from 60-99-104-103-108, or bounce as she often has done in the past off of huge efforts. If she peaks, we’re looking at a 110 speed figure and a real shot at a win; if she bounces she figures to run up the track with a sub-100 speed figure.