Going Long

Saturday marks the inaugural running of the Grade I California Turf Classic, a mile and three eighths for three year olds, and it has attracted a fine field of eleven including three of the top ten rated colts in the world.

The morning line favorite, however, is none of those.  Favoritism instead goes to Zanzibar, a colt who has never tried a race this long before.  He did look impressive winning a Smackdown II mile his last time out.

Here is a look at the field:

1. Strong Belwas (Empire Maker x Caerlon) was leading the Irish Derby after 11 furlongs only to be passed by the number one rated Cortez.  The Asoiaf (15%) trainee should be prominent throughout.  In his last two races, both 12 furlong graded stakes, he faded a bit in the last eighth.  Distance should be perfect for him.  5-1.

2. Drago Dell’Oro (Medaglia D’Oro x Machiavellian) has six wins in his eight starts this year for ace trainer Shadowclaw (21%).  Drago’s only clunker was in the Grade I Derby de English where he never contended and was beaten by three he faces today (and several others).  That was also his only try in graded company and the only race where he fell far back early.  Upset older last time in the World Traveller Challenge, but that field was far from stellar.  On the other hand, did I mention he has six wins in eight starts this year?  6-1.

3. Two races ago Darkdoun (Galilleo x Pientre Celebre) stretched out from allowance sprints to a 12 furlong Grade II stakes and wired a field of ten, running off to win by over four lengths.  The field was mediocre for a graded affair, but he followed that up with a show in the Irish Derby.  Strong Belwas pulled away from him after a long battle, but the Peepsclaim (13%) trained Darkdoun established that he belongs in this level of competition.  Lots of upside here.  6-1.

4. Giantsbane (Mineshaft x Giant’s Causeway) got fried in a speed duel last time for trainer Sangster (24%) in a Smackdown II stakes, and again the race before that in the Derby de English.  There is other early speed here, so it could happen again.  The last time he ran 11 furlongs, though, he did win after a gritty battle, so he can’t be ignored.  7-1.

5. The struggling Horsetab (3%) stable, after watching Dalakh Mogul (Dalakhani x Tirol) lose his last two races by a combined 32 lengths, decided to step him up into graded company.  Career highlight was winning a Lenny-bid allowance at this distance.  That gives the barn reason to brag it up on the Forum thread heading toward infinity.  I hope they do.  14-1.

6. Rainbow Forest (Teton Forest x Rainbow Quest) has four wins this year, but they have all come against claimers and starters.  Others have gone from claimers to winning graded stakes, but the normally wily trainer Hellraiser (18%) is trying to do it with one who can’t seem to win a n1x allowance.  19-1.

7. Another trying to step up from allowance to graded stakes and to stretch out from a classic distance is Rough Azroc (Dynaformer x A.P. Indy).  Low speed figures and no wins at grassy routes explain the long odds for this Corka (9%) trainee.  This longshot does have a chance to pick up a minor piece, however.  Seems to be improving and may like the longer distance.  14-1.

8. Morning line favorite Zanzibar (Galileo x Blushing Groom) ran a huge speed figure for trainer Peeps8 (14%) last time in winning an eight furlong Smackdown II stakes.  This stablemate of number one rated Cortez deserves respect for his connections and his running style.  At shorter distances he has been sitting just off the pace and pouncing late.  If he can duplicate that style at this longer distance it looks like the way to go with a speed duel likely in front of him.  3-1.

9. The Supers check in with Super21’s (26%) number three rated Good to be King (Smarty Jones x A.P. Indy).  The surprising thing is that King got his rating without ever winning a stakes race.  Three back he rallied past several in here in the Derby de English for a nice second, but he followed that with a lethargic effort in a Smackdown II stakes.  He had no problem dominating a restricted allowance field last time, so he seems recovered from the Smackdown debacle.  Barn has to be happy with all the early speed here and of course with uberjockey Gossett. 7-2.

10. On the Green II (Mark of Esteem x Langfuhr) faces more than four competitors for the first time this year for trainer Smokeglack (12%).  He hasn’t been able to duplicate the 84 speed figure he earned as a two year old and goes against many who would go straight to the vet if they ran that slow.  26-1.

11. The lightly raced X Commandments (Desert King x Modern Day Moses) is the intriguing entry for longshot bettors.  I’m impressed that Randwick1 (7%) ever heard of Modern Day Moses when he bred this one.  I haven’t.  Have you?  X beat a pretty nice field last time at ten furlongs and is improving by leaps and bounds every time.  Same stalking style as the favorite, and this race looks to reward that style.  22-1.

Morning line: 8-9-1-3.

Timmn’s picks:  A few years ago I got frustrated when I picked a longshot and it ran well but did not win and I sat there with a losing ticket.  So now whenever I like one at over 10-1 I bet it across the board.  Last week I thought a 30-1 shot had a shot and when he finished second I liked the $23.00 place payoff.  X Commandments is exactly the type I like to bet this way.  He may not finish in the money.  He probably won’t be able to handle the jump in class or the extra distance.  But at 22-1 I can afford to be wrong.  I pick 11-1-2-9.