Filly Favored Over Top Rated Colts

When a race attracts four of the top ten three year old turfers, you might expect others to shy away.  Hardly.  Not only did the Grade I Big Red Stakes attract an overflow field, it pulled in the number twelve rated filly, Dance Seeker, who has been installed as the morning line favorite over the boys, including number one rated Creepshow.

The Big Red serves as the first half of back to back Grade I ten furlong turf races, to be followed by the Windy City Turf Classic for older horses. 

In the five of the six previous runnings of the Big Red, the winner has been on or near the lead in the early fractions, and with the firm turf early runners may have the advantage again today.

Here is a look at the field:

1. Listen to the Lion (Rock of Gibraltar x Irish River) ships in from Europe for the Super10 (22%) stable.  Lion tried a stretch of four straight Grade I’s earlier this year without success.  In his last two he has run closer to the lead, and the change in strategy has helped him to finish in the money in minor stakes.  Odd to dismiss a top twenty-five colt from the Supers, but the long odd are justified.  15-1.

2. Comiskey (Elusive Quality x Sunday Silence) ships in from Hong Kong for Eomer (14%).  Stable has tried ambitious entries with him before in the Grade I 2000 Guineas and the Sidney Derby, both without success.  Most of his success came in sprints as a two year old.  Will be trying to get in the ballpark late. 21-1.

3. Skills in Magic (Denon x Sadler’s Wells) blew by Creepshow and several others to finish second in a Grade I Smackdown II last time.  In that race he earned a triple digit speed figure and brought his lifetime earnings past a million dollars.  The only downside for this Peeps9 (15%) trainee is the history of the race.  Magic is a deep closer in a race that has favored early speed.  8-1.

4. Rumor has it the Lenny thread in the Sim’s Forum will hit ten pages before it goes away.  Lenny28 (20%) trains the number one rated turf colt, Creepshow (Rock of Gibraltar x Deputy Minister).  Creep has three Grade I wins already in his ten starts, including an Equinics victory, but the last big win came five months ago.  He has recently finished behind both Skills in Magic and Very Silver, but it would be no surprise to see this lightly raced champ regain his winning ways.  His style is to rally from midpack.  6-1.

5. Town Prince (Ballingarry x Majestic Prince) has six wins and two seconds in his nine turf routes.  He is coming off a convincing win in a Smackdown II Stakes, where he ran a triple digit speed figure and beat a very strong field while trying graded company for the first time.  The Quitter (14%) trainee proved again he can hold off an early challenge.  Looks formidable here if he doesn’t bounce and if it’s possible to look formidable in such a tough field.  8-1.

6. Very Silver (Silver Ghost x Secretariat) has been a steady performer for the Acote (11%) barn.  Finished second in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Turf and has gotten faster since.  Last three races all earned 100+ speed figures.  Tends to rally from midpack and tries ten furlongs for the first time.  There is every reason to think he should like it.  6-1.

7. Last time out, Dr. Devito (Rahy x Gone West) tried graded stakes for the first time and finished out of the money for the first time.  The Farm304 (15%) trained colt may well improve off that effort, and he will need to.  He has yet to run this far, has yet to earn a 100 speed figure, and has a rallying style that mimics better runners in here.  That said, you can’t rule him out in the bottom part of exotics.  12-1.

8. Yet another son of Rock of Gibraltar, Rosenthal (Rock of Gibraltar x Caerlon) has four wins as a three year old for trainer Simsters8 (18%).  His speed figures don’t compare to many in here, but he is a consistent sort who was competitive in a mile-and-a-half Grade I stakes earlier this year. He figures to be prominent early in a race without much early speed.  20-1.

9. TS1442 (11%) runs Cryptotrick (Cryptoclearance x Phone Trick) every three weeks, and Trick makes his eleventh start as a three year old.  His speed figures are competitive here, hitting 100 twice, and he is never far back.  Tried graded stakes for the first time last time and made a strong bid before fading.  This is a new distance for him and a much tougher field than he is used to.  Look for him to improve off of this next time.  9-1.

10. Dance Seeker (Seeking the Gold x Northern Dancer) finished third two races back and three races back.  We point that out because her other eight turf races were all wins.  She began her three year old season with seven straight victories including two graded stakes and one allowance race against the boys.  Ah, yes, the boys.  RockRiver (11%) boldly enters her against the top colts in the world.  Not only that, she is the last one entered, so the field was known to RockRiver.  Her last race, a sprint on a yielding turf, earned a field-high 108 speed figure.  If we look for weaknesses, this is what we find: she has never run this far before, and her rallying running style may be compromised by the too many trying to do exactly the same thing.  If we look for strengths, well, she is just plain fast.  7-2.

11. Lemon Lily Affair (Lemon Drop Kid x Royal Al) finished third in a four horse minor stakes last time for trainer Stonybrook (7%), behind a Lenny trained colt, and makes quite a jump in class today.  May contribute to an early pace, and many in here are hoping for a speed duel, but otherwise would be quite a surprise to factor in the outcome.  19-1.

12. The Shining (Beat Hollow x Silver Hawk) has four grassy route wins for Lenny27 (24%) and has finished out of the money only twice.  Those two races were his only tries in graded company, however.  It is seldom wise to second guess this trainer, but this one looks too slow.  21-1.

13. A Necessary Evil (Vindication x Giant’s Causeway) last win came almost five months ago.  The Hot2Trot (16%) trainee just missed last time in a very nice effort at nine and a half furlongs.  Tries graded stakes for the first time today.  Evil always tries hard (the colt I mean, not the condition of being bad) and may well pick up a minor piece of the purse here.  13-1.

14. Streets of Fire (Street Cry x Deputy Minster) has five wins in seven turf starts this year for trainer Upperhand2 (19%).  Tried graded company for the first time last out and was an outstanding winner in the Upper California Derby.  This is a much tougher field, but he has shown the ability to rise to the challenge.  Very generous odd on this one.  17-1.

Morning Line: 10-4-6-3

Timmn’s picks:  For a longshot to come through, it needs too many good horses to run poorly.  The history of the race and the lack of much early speed requires that we look for quality early speed as a top choice.  After that, we look for current form.  5-6-10-3.