Lex Luthor heavy favorite in Smackdown II turf marathon
Ahh, Smackdown II. The culmination of weeks of negotiating races, choosing residency representatives, and talking lots of smack. But polite smack, because those Vermonsters are just too nice to really go for the big smacktalk. These weeks of preparations all come down to just 20 races run at 2 tracks. With Smackdown, seconds and third are just as important as the win in determining the overall winner, and we have to factor in the 4th and 5th finishers as well. So while Lex Luthor is the clearly and deserving morning line favorite for the 12f turf race for 3yo colts, bettors should be taking a close look at the entire field.
Post 1: Representing Vermont is Hail Cesaar, a chestnut son of Saarland owned and bred by moriahspop. Hail Cesaar is making his first try over this mile-and-a-half distance. Based on his last race at 10f, he doesn’t look like he’ll really love the distance, but he’s put up a nice record at shorter distances on grass (5 wins on 15 starts), and was staked-placed at 2. In addition, many of those races in the 8-9.5f range do show him with some energy at the wire, so it’s possible he’ll be able to stay the distance. HC can take the lead, stalk the pace, or it’s hard to predict what tactics jockey L Cardinal will take.
Post 2: Representing Kentucky is Warrior Glance, a bay son of Fusaichi Pegasus owned and bred by kyclocker5. After achieving some success on dirt (4 board finishes in 5 starts), Warrior Glance was switched over to the lawn with mixed results. His first trip saw him go 9 furlongs where he was injured. Ten weeks later he was ready to race again and entered a 9.5 allowance. He settled comfortably toward the rear of the pack, but when asked for some go he went. The 2-length win earned a 92SP. His pedigree and performance on track suggest a longer race should not be a problem. The 22-1 odds really don’t tell the full story of this colt’s potential. I would not be surprised to see him put in a huge effort here.
Post 3: Representing the GR Simsters is Absence of Malice(IRE), a chestnut son of Desert King(IRE) owned and trained by itsthebear. The colt has but 6 races in him, 2 of those ended in wins including one at 10 furlongs. AofM has tried this distance once in the GR Simsters English Derby, but never really factored into the race as he put in only a halfhearted effort to run fourth of six. I think that race will prove to be an aberration, however, as he shows every sign of being abel to handle races longer than 10. If stamina isn’t a question, then, what is responsible for the 29-1 morning line? Speed, or rather, AofM’s lack of speed. He has yet to crack a 90SP, and will probably need at least a 94 to hit the board here. If he maintains his closing style, and if he improves speed to the extent i think he eventually will, he certainly could be a factor for a minor placing.
Post 4: Representing the GR Simsters is Lex Luthor, a bay son of Empire Maker owned and bred by galileo. Fresh off a forceful victory in the G1 Derby De English, Lex is the overwhelming favorite and looks likely to earn his third straight win. It seems that successful turf marathoners have one of two preferred running styles: deep closers or frontrunners. Lex fits firmly in the latter category, as he has a speedy turn out foot out of the gate and can carry it through 12 furlongs with ease. This really is the horse to beat.
Post 5: Representing the GR Simsters is Shacklebolt, a chestnut son of Johannesburg bred by optical and now owned by lenny17. Shacklebolt lost to Lex in the Derby De English, running midpack and way out of it. His trainer decided that six starts on grass was enough, so he went to dirt for a 10 furlong allowance 3 weeks ago. Big surprise, Shacklebolt loved it, winning by 3 and posting a 95SP (his lifetime high). It makes the move back to grass seem a bit odd, but given that Shacklebolt earned a nice third in the Adelaide Derby just before the Derby De English, it makes sense that Lenny would wish to see what his colt can do with the addition of some surface switch magic. He’s got some good speed and experience at 12, so you really can’t discount this one. Still, I’d love to see what kind of damage he can do on the main track in the future.
Post 6: Representing the GR Simsters is Dragnipur, a bay son of Sadler’s Wells owned and bred by dormello. This colt has been kind of a head-scratcher. He ran second in an 11 furlong GII 4 back, then faltered badly in the Sydney Derby. He was back to form in a listed stake at 10 (where he ran third by 3). Last time out Dragnipur lost the GR Simsters English Derby at 12 furlongs by just a length and closing hard. His closing style sets him up nicely to try for a late run against Lex, but Lex is just plain faster than Dragnipur, so jockey B Sipe will have to ride the tactical race of his life if he wants this win. Still, I can definitely see Dragnipur hitting the board.
Post 7: Representing Kentucky is A Necessary Evil, a a bay son of Vindication bred by buzzbarn and now owned by hot2trot. ANE is quite well accomplished, and hits the board at the stakes level more often than not. He’s seen 12 furlongs but once, and that try resulted in his worst performance to date. Was it a fluke? Hard to say, he may have just been tired after racing just 2 weeks before. Last time out ANE went 9.5 furlongs for a lifetime best 99 SP but still lost by 2 1/4. Most races he’s flying at the end but just falls short. He could indeed like 12. ANE has now had 4 weeks off and should be well-rested. If that last race signaled he’s coming into his best racing form, Lex needs to watch out lest he get nosed at the wire.
Post 8: Representing Vermont is Fifth Wheel, a chestnut son of Wheelaway bred by runwild8 and now trained by airjordyn. He’s light on wins so far with just one trip to the winner’s circle on 15 starts, but 9 total places and shows indicate that Fifth Wheel prefers to be in the thick of things at the wire. Fifth Wheel’s never raced over 9.5 furlongs, although his two trips at that distance tell different stories. His first try he tired in the stretch, but his second trip over 9.5 saw the horse settling further back than ever and making up for it with a nice sustained drive in the stretch. He fell short, but he showed that when given the right trip, he could probably handle 10+. One wonders if jockey M Ketron intends to try to duplicate that last race. Fifth Wheel doesn’t quite seem to have the sheer determination it would take to win, but when given the best ride possible a placing is not out of the question.
Post 9: Representing Kentucky is Showcase of Power, a chestnut son of Empire Maker bred and owned by bulletwork. I had to laugh when looking at Showcase’s PPs, because Bulletwork seems to really like running Showcase in races bid by Gr Simsters. He’s run in five such races recently, but only picked up one win. Showcase broke his maiden 2 back at 9.5 on grass and followed that up 4 weeks ago with a solid 2-length romp at 10. Can he handle the extra quarter-mile, and can he handle the tougher company? I think so. His speed figures have improved as he gets more distance, and he looks set up for a huge performance. We already know Empire Maker offspring can excel at this distance. The one note of caution is running style: Showcase has pretty much had his way on the lead for his most successful races. We already know Lex will not be willing to give up the lead, so Showcase will have to learn to stalk if he wants a win.
Post 10: Representing Kentucky is K’s State Power, a chestnut son of Kingmambo owned and bred by supreme. Two-third of his races have ended with a third-place or better. This one may bump K’S SP up to 70% ITM. He’s had 2 turf races, at 9.5 and 10. The 9.5 effort was excellent; he ran second by a head in a Dubai allowance. A month ago he tried 10 and looked good up until the final turn where he pretty much started running backward and lost by about 9. If K’S SP is back up to that form he showed at 9.5, he’s a threat. If not, he filling out the field. My money is on contender status, and at 9-1 odds he’s most definitely worth at minimum a show bet.
Post 11: Representing Vermont is Isle of Revenge, a chestnut son of Strong Hope owned and bred by braylee. Revenge win a GIII at 9 on the lead in his final start of 2005 but hasn’t seen the winner’s circle since then. He represented vermont at the Equinics where he demonstrated that while he doesn’t love off turf he still had enough heart to hang on for 4th. His 2 most recent starts suggest Revenge may be recovering his 2yo form, and if he is, is a potential spoiler. His best races finish-wise have been when Revenge breaks fast and builds up a big lead. Given that Lex and Showcase will also be funning for the lead, Revenge may not be able to do what he seems to like best.
Post 12: Representing Kentucky is Earth Quaker, a bay son of A.P. Indy owned and bred by kyclocker9. Earth Quaker probably would have gone in one of the dirt races but for his last race. Like Shacklebolt, Earth Quaker was prepped for Smackdown II on the grass. The race was a 9.5f stake in Virginia, and Earth Quaker won it handily by 2 1/4 and drawing away. The 92 SP must have made his trainer feel very good about his 12f chances. I really like the looks of this horse in general and in this race. Doubt he’ll win, but again, he’s definitely got spoiler written all over him.
Post 13: Representing Vermont is I’ve Been Scheming, a bay son of Fusaichi Pegasus bred and trained by kaif099. Scheming is one of the least experienced of the field with just 5 starts, but still he’s shown some talent with a win and three places. One of those places represents his only turf try, which was his most recent race in an 8.5f allowance. He ran second by 1 3/4 with a 94. In his dirt races he generally showed early speed, but his lone turf try saw him generally hang out a couple lengths of the lead. If he tries that in this race he’ll be killed by the pace, so jockey S O’Calslew may try to relax him a bit further back off the pace. There’s a definite upside to this horse, but he needs some more tracktime before he becomes one can be confident in his chances.
Post 14: Representing the GR Simsters is Refuse to Die(IRE), a chestnut son of Refuse To Bend(IRE) bred by simsters3 and trained by cdragon. He’s shown a definite preference for distance, and strung together 3 wins at 10 and 11 in successive maiden, allowance, and stakes company. Five weeks ago RTD tried 12 for the first time in the GII Seventh King Eddie Stakes. He closed like mad but fell 4 1/2 short, earning a 92SP for the place. he ran a deep closing style last out, so the hot pace he’ll get in this race should benefit him. At 15-1, this is a horse worth betting hard.
Post 15: Representing Vermont is Sailor Vici(IRE), a bay son of Almaarad bred by hollandia7 and owned by liddleski. The field longshot at 58-1 has five starts, four of them in claims. He’s put together 2 wins in a row, but both were for 35k or lower tags. The lifetime high SP of 83 was earned at a mile, and he’s never run longer than 8.5. Despite these minuses, he’s never finished off the board and has more to gain by a big improvement than anybody else.