Flounder Turf Distaff-G1

Greetings from Newmarket and a mid-vacation BTB writeup. A field of 11 runners line up for this years running of the Flounder Turf Distaff-G1 and it looks to set up as a close finish. Among these are several of the top contenders in the division along with a full slew of hopefuls looking to make their mark in the division. Rain early this week has let up and the skies are expected to clear with a firm track rating. Glancing over the odds quickly you find two distinct group of runners as the odds jump dramatically from one group to the next but I don’t think that boxing the favorites will be the way to go today. At least one of the long odds hopefuls will surely spoil the trifecta today so a wheel with some of the long shot on the back end should prove more profitable. Our runners today are:

PP 1

13/1 BARB’S RETURN

(GB)(IN THE WINGS(GB) x SHARPEN UP(GB) x RIBOT)

Turf Classic Rank : 138

A Holohan ( 85 – 7 – 5 – 5 – 8% )    

Trainer: 5heffsbarn    

Breaking from the inside gate, Barb’s Return(GB) and trainer 5heffsbarn have had much success in the marathon division with three stake wins and one additional win at this distance last time out in The PHARHONOR TRIAL Stakes-Stk. However, she’s yet to break the triple digit SF barrier which is expected in order to win this one today. Although the four stake wins have been very impressive they came with fields that were less than half full and today she’ll be facing a near full field of runners and some of the top of the division. You can’t really fault 5heffsbarnfor dropping in distance for a Grade I try as the marathon turf division is full of all-stars such as Horseshoe Bay, Sunnybank Memorial and Rain God. Jockey A Holohan will need his A game in order to squeeze everything he can from this filly.

PP 2

24/1 BONERSAUR

(SADLER’S WELLS x FUSAICHI PEGASUS x ALLEGED)

Turf Classic Rank : 98

L Anderson ( 180 – 18 – 15 – 26 – 10% )

Trainer: ksparrow11

The final choice on the board, Bonersaur proves that the odds makers don’t always have it all correct. Her last five race have produced speed figures of 82, 76, 96, 64 and 84. However, if you look closer at those races you see something totally different. Two of those races were ran at two miles on the turf, a distance which would you would expect to have slower speed ratings. The 64SF was ran at two miles on the dirt that this mare has shown she doesn’t like at all and her last race was ran on yeilding turf. Her best performance of those races was in the Virgin Mary Stakes-G1 ran at 10 furlongs on firm turf and she finds similar conditions here today. Although she finished 6^th in that race and well off the pace, she did manage to beat both Aragon Bull and Spooky Ballet. Does she have what it takes to take down a Grade I field? Probably not but she’ll beat more than her fair share of horses today.

PP 3

7/2 SPOOKY BALLET

(SILVER GHOST x NUREYEV x RAINBOW QUEST)

Turf Classic Rank : 16

A Craig ( 434 – 108 – 71 – 63 – 25% )

Trainer: apmccoy    

Our morning line favorite Spooky Ballet, comes in with an impressive record of 15 career stake victories and a 54% winning percentage! As a three year old, she literally tore up the competition with nine stake wins that year. The only real mark you could possibly make against her is the fact that out of those 15 wins she has only won one graded event which was last time out in the Sheepherder Beach Handicap-G3. Her form may have been off as of late but she may be ready to show more coming off that graded win. She has a late kick and the distance seems to suit her well so most of the early money may go her way. She draws jockey A Craig who is putting on a show this season with a 25% winning percentage. You just have to like that combination.

PP 4

5/1 ADAGIO FRAGRANCE

(COZZENE x CAERLEON x KRIS S.)

Turf Classic Rank : 36

Bo Edwards ( 77 – 13 – 5 – 2 – 17% )

Trainer: cream

Breaking from gate number four, Adagio Fragrance has shown some flash of speed in the past and certainly has the breeding that you would expect from this level of racing. This Cozzene daughter is a four time stake winner but trainer cream is looking to grab that coveted graded win with this mare. Her last attempt in graded company found her way short of the mark in the Golden Platter Handicap-G2 but if you look at the race before that, she put up a stellar performance in The BLAZE SOARING Challenge-Stk finishing second with a 102 SF. Jockey Bo Edwards will need to get all he can out of her if he intends to finish on top.

PP 5

5/1 ARAGON BULL

(PALANCE x ROXBURY PARK x RAINBOW QUEST)

Turf Classic Rank : 23

J Bradley ( 378 – 60 – 62 – 57 – 16% )

Trainer: fourhooves    

Aragon Bull has had much success since switching to the grass this time last season. She already has two graded wins to her resume in the Freiermuth Stakes-G3 and most recently in the Hannah Barbera Cap-G2 held in Japan this past April. However, the race where she really shined and showed what she is capable of was earlier this year in The NAPPY DUGOUT Special-Stk where she put up a career best 110 SF at this distance despite the critics who gave her little chance with her humble breeding. She’s been knocked back down to size in her recent starts but still has put in some solid performances. The distance may have been too much for her in her last race and she should perform better today. Jocky J Bradley is in the irons and is cooking along nicely with a 16% winning percentage.

PP 6

13/1 SEXY FOX HOUND

(EAGLE EYED x RAKEEN x PROSPECTOR’S MUSIC)

Turf Classic Rank : 81

G Denovo ( 77 – 6 – 8 – 13 – 8% )

Trainer: hotfeet    

There was some talk among the community earlier this week discussing horse that went from claimers to Grade I winners and perhaps trainer hotfeet is hoping for just that. However, this mare is still looking for her first stake win, graded or not but she did have some close calls last year. The most notable of them was in the Mrs. Cleaver Stakes-G2 where she finished second just 2 ½ lengths back. This year has not been that kind to her though her speeds have bounced around the high 80’s to the low 90’s and it’s hard to justify the move to a Grade I event. I’ll give her an E for effort but look elsewhere.

PP 7

4/1 SADFLY’S DUBAI

(E DUBAI x SADLER’S WELLS x BLUSHING GROOM(FR))

Turf Classic Rank : 17

T Cooper ( 266 – 34 – 32 – 32 – 13% )

Trainer: rose    

Our second choice, Sadfly’s Dubai is looking to find the winner’s circle in graded event for the second time this year. She started the year off with a bang in the Exploding Outhouse Stakes-G3 with a win and a career tying best 108 SF. She has been fairly consistent this year, save for a couple of races, as she finished ‘05 with less than stellar performances. However, this distance seems to be her best and she may sit just off the pace leader and make a move in the final two furlongs. Jockey T Cooper is no slouch and may have just the right stuff to make a tactical move when needed.

PP 8

14/1 BUDA AT THE BALLET

(DANZIG x NIJINSKY II x LYPHARD)

Turf Classic Rank : 55

Le Lang ( 74 – 6 – 10 – 3 – 8% )

Trainer: juju

Royally bred, Buda At The Ballet has cashed more than her fair share of checks for trainer juju with career earnings of $385,052. Although she’s yet to score in graded company, she has been placed nicely in her other races and could surprise by taking a piece of the board. She’s yet to break 100+ in SF but you have to think that with her breeding that she’s due. If you like to bet the long shots, this may be your horse. The only question will be if she can keep up with pace.

PP 9

19/1 BELLAFIGA

(DIXIELAND BAND x KRIS(GB) x STORM BOOT)

Turf Classic Rank : 144

I Benjamin ( 64 – 2 – 6 – 10 – 3% )

Trainer: cotevol

Our lone three year old, Bellafiga is coming off her first stake win in The OUTSHINED Challenge-Stk against fellow three year olds. She takes on older horses for the first time today but has shown that she has the speed to keep up with most of the horses entered. She drop back down in distance which seems better for her but the question will remain how she’ll handle the competition and the pressure of older horses. Although the odds are high it’s always hard to rule out any three year old this time of year as you have no idea where they are in their development stage. I’ll have to rule her out of my trifecta ticket but I’ll have one eye peeled on her the whole way.

PP 10

9/2 KRAZY MOMMA

(IRE)(DESERT KING (IRE) x IRISH RIVER(FR) x BLOOD ROYAL)

Turf Classic Rank : 8

P Papp ( 71 – 5 – 10 – 6 – 7% )

Trainer: imamudder

Krazy Momma(IRE) has looked impressive this year since turning four. She has not missed the board in her last eight attempts including three consecutive non-graded wins but she put up a career best 107 SF three races back, finishing a close second in the Virgin Mary Stakes-G1 and most notably beat fellow entrant Sadfly’s Dubai by more than 13 lengths. Her last two races seem sub-par but they came on an off track. The nice weather that is predicted should be more to her liking as she will look to set the pace and wire the field. She seems to perform better when she’s not challenged for the lead so we’ll have to see how the race sets up to really know if she’ll rebound.

PP 11

16/1 ALYCHANT

(WAR CHANT x NUREYEV x ALYDAR)

Turf Classic Rank : 276

R Stelle ( 63 – 3 – 4 – 2 – 5% )

Trainer: lenny15    

Our final runner breaking from the outside post, Allychant is taking a beating from the track handicapper at 16/1. This despite the fact that she’s run some solid performances this whole year. It probably has more to do with her last two races, one of which was a ill-fated attempt on the dirt. Like some of the others, lenny15 may have a rough go of it but a trifecta spoiler isn’t out of the question if the pace is slow.