Who has edge for bragging rights in wide open $100k Blazing Saddles Breeder Showdown Classic?

WILMINGTON, Del. — The end-of-year Blazing Saddles Breeder Showdown will feature a wide open Classic on Saturday in Delaware. The race will be run over a mile-and-a-quarter on fast dirt, with a purse of $100,000.

It’s a field that features a little bit of everything, but few who appear to have everything. There are hot runners, as well as those that appear on the decline. There are horses that have proven their talent, and others who are less proven. Who will break through to top the 11-horse group? Where will residency bragging rights go?

*Interesting note on the field: Every horse is Kentucky bred.

 

 

(1) CLAVES                                                          (Distorted Humor x Unbridled’s Song x Dynaformer)
3yo Colt                                                                6/1                                                                         abc

This 3-year-old son of Distorted Humor has one thing going for him — he has steadily improved throughout the year under the watchful eye of owner abc. He is coming off perhaps the best run of his career, when he finished as runner up in the listed stakes Credit Given Dirt Route at 9 furlongs. He finished 1 ¾ lengths back with a career-high speed figure of 113. That mid-October raced came three months after Claves had a solid run in the Grade III Vinny Barbarino, finishing fourth. That’s the extent of his stakes experience. The main hole on his growing resume is that he has yet to go 10 furlongs. He has been stretching out and still succeeding, but has not won past a mile yet. That may be an issue against an experienced field, but so far abc has found a way to continue his horse’s improvement, and he saw fit to bring Claves to this one. Will likely stalk the leaders.

(2) AMYGDALA                                                 (Rock Hard Ten x Malibu Moon x Tabasco Cat)
4yo Colt                                                                16/1                                                                       gameondude

In an interesting scenario, the field’s winningest horse (12 top spots) is actually the group’s longest shot (16/1). Why is that? Mostly it’s about the strength of competition. The 4-year-old is also a veteran of the claiming circuit, which is not something you often find in a stakes race. That, however, was under different ownership. Since being claimed for just $7,5000 by gameondude, Amygdala has been tracked for greater things. Seven of his 12 wins have come under gameondude against allowance or better competition. He’s breezed past Allowance competition, but is still trying to find his groove at the stakes level. He did finish second a year ago in the listed Dusty Dance Dirt Challenge, but has since run a pair of very similar results in the 10-furlong River Spay Dirt memorial and the 9.5-furlong Orthoclase Turf Route. He was not particularly competitive in either. The two questions about Amygdala are whether he can raise his level against better competition, and whether dirt is the best surface for him. He’s run on both dirt and grass and has done well on both. It might take a perfect match to win in this field. Amygdala will likely be a mid-pack runner who tries to close in the second half of the race.

(3) OFF THE LEASH                                          (Smart Strike x Giant’s Causeway by Seattle Slew)
3yo Colt                                                                14/1                                                                       elenita

With only nine career races under his belt, this 3-year-old is both the least-race and lowest-earning runner in the field. This son of Smart Strike is another entrant looking to prove it belongs in the stakes crowd, and, like many in the field, Off the Leash is looking for its first stakes victory. He is coming off a two-month layoff after finishing second in the listed Your Boundaries Dirt Stakes back in Octobe with a career-high 107 speed figure. He finished fourth in January’s Fanco Invastion Dirt Route at 9.5 furlongs. Off the Leash has run only once at this distance before, winning an allowance race, but owner elenita has stretch him out in his last two races, so he should be able to handle the distance. Is this the perfect distance for him? Quite possibly not (it also looks like he could be a good turf horse, but has only run twice on the grass). The pieces of the puzzle come together to form an uphill, but not impossible, battle for Off the Leash. A mid-pack runner.

(4) TIMES NEW ROMAN                                (Dynaformer x Theatrical x Seeking the Gold)
5yo Horse                                                            9/1                                                                         gowans2011

This 5-year-old isn’t a favorite, but does have the potential to shake up the field as a wild card. The second-highest earner in the field, Times New Roman has a busy resume — he is the only Grade 1 winner in the field; he won the mile-and-a-quarter Roberto Clemente in 2013. Beyond that he has one listed win and a host of high stakes finishes. The reason that Times New Roman’s role in this race is uncertain is that he appears to be on the (relative) downward trajectory of his career. He has only one win — an allowance race — in the year since the Roberto Clemente. Times New Roman is also the only horse in the field that has generally favored turf. He’s had enough talent to challenge on dirt, but hasn’t put it all together quite as well on the surface, on which he’s worked a good amount this year. There was a good run in the 10.5-furlong Thirteen Mark Dirt Route in August, finishing third with a 107 speed figure, but it still wasn’t enough to win. Does the gowans-owned runner have another big run in him, and can he find it on his secondary surface? Look for a deep close.

(5) NO DIGGITY                                                (Tapit x Distorted Humor x Storm Cat)
4yo Colt                                                                10/1                                                                       mtkgrs2

This 4-year-old stakes winner comes in as a 10/1 shot according to the odds-makers. The Tapit-bred runner is a listed stakes winner, but has been in a bit of cruise control as a 4-year-old. Blazing Saddles forefather mtk will be hoping that No Diggity finds his next gear in his final race of 2014. He is coming off a 10-furlong win in a non-winner of two in nine allowance race in late October with a 99 speed figure, and has posted two other allowance victories this year. Three times he has gone up in competition, the first as a non-factor in February’s Grade I Glenn Handicap. It appears mtk decided that was not his level, and has since run two listed events, also struggling in those. No Diggity has certainly had a solid career and shown the ability to make big runs in the past, but does he still have that in him? Or is he simply a dominant allowance runner at this point? Another deep runner who will look to close.

(6) SPIRAL CANDY                                            (Sidney’s Candy x Hard Spun x Gone West)
4yo Colt                                                                5/1                                                                         bodemeister

It would be hard to argue that any runner in this race is coming in hotter than Spiral Candy. The 4-year-old son of Sidney’s Candy is a co-second favorite by the odds, but certainly had the biggest last run of any horse here throwing a 113 speed figure to finish second in the Grade II Insulin Cap back in late August. He has since been off. It has been a good year for the bodemeister-owned colt, which transitioned from being an exclusively allowance-run horse — generally on turf — to finding his groove on the dirt. Prior to his graded run, Spiral Candy won the listed Pleasant Nijinsky Dirt Route in July. The biggest question about him is the distance. He’s proven to like a mile and an eighth, but outside an allowance win in June of 2013 at 10 furlongs, he hasn’t shown a particular propensity to go longer. Spiral Candy appears to be peaking at the right time though, so one would expect him to be a factor in this race. Tends to tightly stalk the lead.

(7) ENDORSE ME                                              (Dynaformer x Unbridled’s Song x A.P. Indy)
4yo Colt                                                                5/1                                                                         skunktime

This 4-year-old is one of two given 5/1 odds, one of two skunk-owned competitors and one of two Dynaformer sons in the field. With over $320,000 in earnings, skunk has pushed Endorse Me to unlock his top potential, but despite a nice pocket book the horse has yet to win a stakes race — all eight of his wins have come in allowance races. He was twice a listed runner-up in 2013, and opened 2014 with one of the biggest efforts of his career, closing well and finishing fourth in the Grade III Heaven Stakes in February. Most recently, Endorse Me enters the race off back-to-back listed runs finishing fifth in the 11-furlong Euler Dirt Stayer and third in the 10-furlong Quiet On the Set Dirt Route. One thing Endorse Me has going for him is it does appear that 10 furlongs is right in his pocket. Can he improve on his run in the Quiet on the Set a month ago? Will three stakes runs in as many months leave him without enough gas in the tank? Certainly a player in this race with a proven ability to throw a big speed figure, Endorse Me just needs to find a way to put the finish with the flash. A mid-pack runner who will let others set the pace.

(8) CLAPPING                                                    (Eskendereya x Raven’s Pass x Unbridled’s Song)
3yo Colt                                                                10/1                                                                       meguire8th

One of four 3-year-olds in the race, this meguire-owned colt and one of just two competitors to have never been a factor in a stakes race. Spending his first year and a half on the allowance circuit, meguire began to push his colt as the results continued to be strong and the speed figures continued to climb. As much as any horse in the race, Clapping has been on the rise, though it has been a slow and steady one. His first stakes effort came in July’s Grade III Vinny Barbarino. It didn’t go well, finishing eighth and out of the mix. Last time out he went 9 furlongs in the listed Exbournes Alert Dirt Memorial finishing seventh, almost eight lengths back. His speed figures have consistently been in the triple-digits through each of the last six races, though he hasn’t won since June. Clapping has not yet shown he can hang with a high level of competition, but he has shown personal growth, and certainly meguire hopes that will continue and that things will come together in a competitive performance in Delaware. Can he surprise as a closer?

(9) NO PAIN NO GAIN                                    (Bernardini x Seeking the Gold x Danzig)
4yo Colt                                                                7/1                                                                         redhill27

This son of Bernardini is a second runner that’s biggest claim to fame is as an allowance runner. The late bloomer was mostly non-descript as a 3-year-old, but redhill has seen him come to life a bit in 2014. No Pain No Gain is, however, still very much untested. He has only a single listed stakes run to his name, when he finished fourth, seven lengths back, in the 10.5-furlong Caustic Band Dirt Route in August. He posted a 105 speed figure in that race. There should be no issue with the distance — No Pain No Gain has won both 10-furlong races he has run, both at the allowance level. This is the most unproven horse in the field, but his performance level has been enough to at least make him a mid-pack pick, according to the odds-makers. Can No Pain No Gain better that expectation or is he simply a talented allowance runner? With a field this open, he should have a shot to factor, closing from near the back of the group.

(10) SLICK CANDIDATE                                   (Street Cry x Giant’s Causeway x Seeking the Gold)
5yo Horse                                                            9/2                                                                         skunkman2

One of skunk’s prize dirt runners, Slick Candidate comes into the race as a slight favorite, and there’s reason to believe he can do good by that. Ever since the end of his 3-year-old cycle, Slick Candidate has been pushed toward big things with a steady diet of stakes races. His resume of 12 listed-or-better runs is the most in the field. A steady runner in 2013, the 5-year-old has broken through a bit in 2014. He began his breakthrough with back-to-back listed performances early in the summer, including a victory in the 10-furlong Seattles Pegasus Dirt Route. Five weeks later Slick Candidate took the next step with a win in the 10-furlong Grade III Wikipedigree.org Challenge. Ranked in the top 100 dirt routers, Slick Candidate has proven his ability at a very high level, and at this distance. It’s hard to see any true holes in his game right now, and he should be fresh after a two-month layoff. The biggest question is likely whether another horse can have a big enough run to knock him off. Will run near the back of the group before closing.

(11) NES CONTRA                                             (Bernardini x Forty Niner x Nureyev)
3yo Colt                                                                7/1                                                                         phillysun6

This 3-year-old is one of the lighter-run horses in the group, with just 12 races under its belt. Coming on the scene late as a 2-year-old, Nes Contra has begun to blossom in 2014. The son of Bernardini has challenged himself in four stakes runs this year, the most impressive of which came in a runner-up finish in July’s Grade III Vinny Barbarino, when he was nipped down the stretch by Calloway. After that, however, he was a non-factor in back-to-back listed runs — the Tete Galactic Dirt Challenge and the Kirs Noia Dirt Challenge. His last run was a dominating allowance victory in late October, when he threw a 110 speed figure despite breezing to a win by over two lengths. It was a big run, but which Nes Contra will show up — the one that posts 110+ numbers and contends, or the one who failed to show up against listed opponents? The other big question is the distance, as Nes Contra has never run past the 9 furlongs he covered last time out. That was an impressive run, but will it hold up as phillysun stretches his runner longer? It’s an unknown that could turn out very well or very poorly. Nes Contra is the field’s lone frontrunner and should pace this race.

 

Although Slick Candidate appears the most flawless entry in the field, there are many horses here that appear to have the ability run such a race, and putting things together could certainly result in a win here. It creates a wide open situation, with perhaps four or five horses with legitimate claims and others who will be eyeing an upset.

Also creating an interesting scenario is the running style of the horses, with Nes Contra the only one who has shown a willingness to run up front. Claves is the only other to even run near the lead, let alone on it. Will that give those two a boost, with the ability to keep the race’s pace slow and conserve for what will surely be a heated stretch with the favorites coming from the back?

There is a lot to like here, but my gut is telling me Sidney’s Candy will stay hot and find a way to pull this one off. I’ll project Slick Candidate in second with Nes Contra using a slow pace up front to finish in the money in third.

Good luck to all the entrants.