Speed Study Series – Issue 1

One of the most intriguing changes to the sim over the past couple of years has been the lowering of speed figures.  For those of you that are new (anyone who started playing less than 1.5 years ago, or November of 2004, fall into this group), back in 2004 speed figures were getting out of hand.  Horses were commonly running higher than 120 speed figures, something which is rare in the real world.  In an attempt to make the sim more realistic, Mike Wallace decided to lower these numbers.  He used a gradual process, which would end with the desired result 180 days (6 months) later.  What we are left with is race times that are comparable to the days of old, but speed figures which are much slower.  In 2000, a 1 mile turf run at Japan for 4yo+ in 1:34 could yield a 120 speed figure.  Nowadays, the same 1:34 time at the same distance and track might only yield a 113 speed figure.  Such was the case in the Kasuda Yinen Mile, a race I covered for the BTB three weeks ago, when Enough Knock won the race with a 120 speed figure in 2000, and Xtremely A Fan won the race, in the same time, with a 113 speed figure.  It made me ask the question – which one was actually faster?  Which of those two holds the stakes record?

I started a study looking into the relationship between speed figures and times in order to calculate which time was actually faster.  But that didn’t go very well.  So I decided to try the next best thing – e-mail Mike.  I was not expecting an answer, as I figured this kind of information would be private to the game.  I was shocked to receive a return e-mail a short while later, with all sorts of interesting information about speed figures.  They answer some of the hottest issues of our time.  Based on all of this new information, it seems only fitting to use it.  Over the rest of the summer (during the BTB’s vacation), I will use the new speed data to compare some of the older greats to some of the newer monsters.  Wondering where Horseshoe Bay’s 2005 Horse of the Year campaign matches up with those of previous years?  Whose BB Classic was better, Call of the Wild II in 2005 or Mine Forest in 2001?  Who holds the Bluegrass Derby Stakes Record?  Was I Seek U’s Triple Crown win the result of an amazingly fast horse, or a weaker three-year-old crop?  Where do the current top horses rate in comparison to those in the Sim Hall of Fame?  Before all these questions can be answered, a couple of basic notes have to be made.

The first disclaimer, as well as breaking news in the sim, is that speed figures are not necessarily all comparable.  For those of you out there who say “wow…my 2 year old ran a 75 speed figure to break his maiden, and this stakes was won with a 71.  I would have won that race if I entered it,” you are not necessarily correct.  “Times and figures can differ slightly even from race to race on the same card at the same distance,” Mike said in an e-mail.  “I actually readjust the bias a bit before each race.”  This is a fact that many people, myself included, did not realize.  The statement shows that there actually is a track bias within the sim, and tracks may actually play slightly differently for every race run.  One day, Kentucky could be speed-favoring, while another day it could benefit the closers.  The fact that different tracks have different biases also makes it slightly complicated to compare individual speed figures and race times, if they are not under identical conditions.

The second biggest difference between newer races and older races has to do with the jockeys.  “I’ve made the jockeys a bit smarter over the years (especially the good ones and the experienced ones)…The jockeys do a much better job now than they did in the past of saving as much horse as they can without flubbing the race,” Mike said in the e-mail.  This statement confirms one of the hottest issues currently on the message board – is there a benefit to selecting jockeys?  By getting one of the top jockeys to ride your horse, you can count on the fact that the jockey is good, and will save as much of your horse as possible.  While it may not mean a stellar speed figure in one specific race, it may mean a better race in upcoming performances, and possibly a longer and better career.  However, with this effect, direct comparison of speed figures may not be completely accurate in determining the best horse.  Just because one horse ran a 113 speed figure and the other ran a 112, it doesn’t mean that the 113 is necessarily the better horse, or even that it ran a better race.

So what does all of this mean?  Well, it’s simple.  Welcome to the Speed Study Series, a series of BTB articles spanning every possible angle of analyzing race speed figures.  This will be an interactive column; if you have something you would like to see covered, head to the BTB Message Board and find the topic labeled “Speed Study Series Suggestions”.  Post what you want to see, whether it is a comparison of 2 horses, a specific comparison of 2 races, an analysis of a horse career, or anything else you can think of that you would like to see.  Then check back later that week, and hopefully I will have done analysis on your topic.  If not, expect that it will be available in the near future.

The biggest part of this study, however, will be the final column of the summer – a comprehensive list of every graded stakes record holder.  This will be a daunting task, but it is underway, and should be completed in the timetable allotted.  Included in that article will be the biggest scoop the game’s creator has ever given the Black Type Bugler – Actual code from the Sim itself.

Here’s a sneak preview of what is yet to come.  The record holder of the Kasuda Yinen Mile, as mentioned above, is Xtremely A Fan, in a time of 1:34 (113.001 speed figure).  Enough Knock’s speed figure from 2000 would be equal to a 112.15 speed figure, slower than the 2005 running.

If that doesn’t appeal to you, maybe this will.  The Bluegrass Derby record is currently held by Tower Storm, winner of the 2002 running, in a time of 2:01.  For more in depth analysis of this race, look out for a future issue of this series.

But until then, sit back and enjoy the analyses that can be done with this data.  Stay tuned for the first official column, looking at a comparison the two greatest years of two of the greatest horses in Sim history – 2005 Horse of the Year Horseshoe Bay and 2001 Horse of the Year Joe Cayenne.  And welcome, one and all, to the Speed Study Series.

Bryan (shagfarms) can be reached at TripleCrown@suscom.net, or through the BTB section of the Sim Message Board.